3rd hand of the match, villain folded to a cbet in the first hand, stabbed a wet board in the 2nd and i folded. Now my thought of the hand here were that the flop was pretty wet and once he calls my cbet he can have very few jacks, maybe 7x or 5x and a lot of draws like gutshots(68, 46, 96, 84, T9, T8 etc). Now on the turn once another 7 hits it kinda unlikely he has one, so his range is more like 5x, maybe bluffs and draws. I choose to check behind because he wont fold 5x, and the 7 of clubs brings more draws against i don`t think i have fold equity nor hand equity. His river lead confuses me because its highly unlikely he`s capable enough to thin value bet 5x or 3x, 7x i think he`ll value bet bigger and 4 6 too. So all we have left are weird played Jx and missed draws. Is it a mistake to think like that and call this river bet? I have 5:1 pot odds and I need to have like 17% eq to call if i`m not mistaken. I put a range of Jx, missed draws, some 5x, most 7x, and 4 6 and i have 30% or smth. Does he have missed draws often enough to make this call profitable? Thx http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1628827
I don't think it's a huge mistake calling or folding. You only have to be good here 17% of the time, so against an unknown I don't think it's bad to call. I think the important thing though, is realizing that your opp is probably not thinking the same way you are. Putting your thought process in your opps head can be a huge mistake. You've only played 3 hands with this guy, this could be his first husng for all you know, don't give credit to your opp for thinking before he proves it to you imo.I call here and use what he shows up with to start formulating how I think my opp is thinking.
Yeah, what Byzantine said I think is correct.