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Nitross's picture
Luck Adjusted winnings

Do the luck adjusted winnings line mean anything important?

on my holdem manager graph the luck adjusted winnings is showing around 3~ buy ins. While my profit is 35 buy ins. over my last 450~ games 

 

Am i just extremely lucky or should i not care about luck adjusted winnings

Skates's picture
 This is all-in luck,

 This is all-in luck, right?
I don't know the answer to this, I'd appreciate it if someone did and chimed in though.

Nitross's picture
 I think it is all in luck,

 I think it is all in luck, they just call it this on the tournament graph i don't know

jackoneill's picture
There used to be a tool

There used to be a tool called "Juks Luck Analysis" - I found that somewhere in the 2+2 forums, but can't remember where.  It only works for Full Tilt and Stars and it also works for other SnG's.  There's also a video from Colin Moshman at Stoxxpoker about this tool.
However, I don't use any kind of luck analysis anymore - in the past, running below equity has often been an excuse for bad play for me and I'm now trying not to be that results oriented anymore.
In addition to that, any tool which calculates All-In equity doesn't get the entire picture - variance is a lot more than just All-In equity, for instance you could constantly run into the top of somebody's range.
As an example, let's say you and your opponent have even stacks and you 4bet him pre-flop to 500 chips with AA - after that, there's no way of getting away from the hand for you.  If he calls you and flops a set or two pair, then you'll put 2/3 of your money into the pot when beat even though you did the correct play and there was no way for you of letting this hand go with just a pot-sized bet left at the flop.
I don't think any All-In equity tool can handle this properly - even if the tool tries to be smart, most likely it'll only see that you put 500 chips into the pot with 80% equity and another 1000 chips with 5% equity for a total chip EV of 450 chips, while your  "real" equity should be 2400 chips.  Simply comparing the pre-flop equity won't work either - for instance if you limp your Aces and then put all your money into the pot at the flop where your opponent hit a set, then you did a huge mistake, so using the pre-flop equity of your hand would be wrong.
Another example is if your opponent is a huge donkey who calls all your button opens and then leads out full pot on every single flop, turn and river and he already did that 20 times in a row.  Well, he obviously can't have a hand each time, so on a dry board, flatting flop and turn and shoving the river should be the right play against him with an overpair of aces - and if he hit two pair on the flop this time, then it's just a cold deck.  If he leads out for full pot all three streets in every single hand and already did that 20 times in a row, then he simply can't have you beat each time, so you were a huge favorite against his entire range and just got unlucky this time.
However, there is no way for any luck analysis tool to detect this, it can only see that you called down while you were beat.  In this particular example, it also requires a human to decide what's the correct play - for instance, calling down would be a huge mistake against a total nit.
Jack