Lets assume we have "a winning" HU SNG player with the ROI of 6%. Lets also assume that this person plays exactly 1000 HS SNG´s every month, 100 dollars buy in each.
-> the person should win 6000 dollars on average each month (i.e. the expected value for the winnings per month is 6000 dollars).
If I now would like to know what is the probability that the earnings of a specific month (i.e. 1000 games sample) is for example below 1000 dollars or even -1000 dollars, how should I calculate this? If someone could show a general formula, I would really appreciate it.
Do many people actually play a thousand games a month? I'm thinking about hypnosis in order to play more volume ;)
I aim for minimum 200 a week and i generally average about 900 a month. I also only single table.
PS: I also have no life!
900 a month? Fair play.
I played like 20 games yesturday, ran like a three legged donkey and had firmly had enough for one day... lol
There is a program, called "ROI Simulator". Google it, I downloaded it I think from 2+2 forums. It is very simple to use, you can also watch the 10-minute video on youtube on how to use it. This program will show you what winning/losing scenarios are possible in the long run. Just enter some 1000 simulations of 1000 samples (which will represent 1 million games in total). For instance, if you are let's say a 5% winning player, and simulate 10000 times 100 samples (my personal preference is 100 game blocks), you will get 100 game blocks of up to -23% to +38% roi or something similar. Personally I use this program often just to calm myself down during the downswing, to see that these things are bound to happen, and of course... that it is possible for things to run FAR WORSE... if you have any questions, please write.
but could you provide a link? those I've found do not work anymore...
it can be a problem finding it :) I found one link that still works:
http://www.rvgsoftware.com/roisimulator.zip
once downloaded, keep it safe ;) you never know if you can find it again... btw, if you need, there's a good description on the 5 columns of the software: http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Number=3218857
I also find it great to use the HU variance simulator found at HUSNG. At least that 1 gives good graphical representation.
regards;