I am wondering about two hands where i am wondering if you also would "go broak" and these can be called coolers?
They are both at about BB40 level (I am at work so don't have the hand histories):
Hand 1:
You have KQ and raise to 2.5 BB before flop and get called.
Flop comes TK4 rainbow
It gets checked to you and you bet about 75% pot and gets called.
The turn comes a 7.
Am I destined to go broak here since the villant actually had KT?
Hand 2:
You have A9h villant raise 2.5BB and you call.
Flop comes TAT rainbow.
You check and villant continuon bet.
If you raise here, would you fold to an all-in raise or
would you wait for a better spot?
or would you also go broak to a villant with AK?
hey champ,
hand 1
imo just a cooler dude... so many worse kings/tens in his range, as well as QJ - and on top of that there are always the superbad fish plays
hand 2
kinda sick spot if you raise and get shoved on. if your up against a worse ace then your still only 35% to win - chopping 65%, against a better ace you are only 10-37% to chop and if he has a T then your only like 9% of winning. that said if you do RR there is probably gonna be somewhere like 25bb in the pot, and your only going to have 27.5ish behind so :s...
if you decide there is no way you opponent is bluffiing, then your either up against an A or a T, if your opponent is loose enought to raise any two pre then you have 29% equity against his range (provided i worked my poker stove correctly) and since your remaining 27.5bb is 34% of the chips, the maths say to fold. if he is tight pre then the number of tens in his range is less and your equity substancially increase but it all depends on his preflop raising range.... the break even point is when he is raising T7 or tighter pre (since if he is loose then he has more tens in range)
another thing to look at is whether he is the type of player who will shove a T, rather then trying to slowly extract value on later streets?? if you take a T out of his range because of the shove (thus putting his range as any A) then you have 50% equity versus another ace and should call to a shove because your 50% equity is greater than the 34% of chips your risking to win
you could take a different line and just flat too, which gives him the chance to barrel if he has air, or you might get some value from hands like 66-kk that might fold to a RR, but will shutdown on the turn and call a river bet.
my 2 cents, hope it helps
Nice analysis :-)
However, I think if he's tight then his range is actually weighted a lot more towards a Ten than less. Sure he has less hands with a Ten in it, but he also won't continue with many weaker hands.
For instance, a loose guy might choose to call you with some soft of medium pocket pair or even King high, and he certainly won't fold any weaker Ace. I still wouldn't recommend a raise though, to allow him to barrel off some chips with his air.
Against a tight opponent, I'd even consider a fold on the river if he bets three streets unless I have reason to believe that he's also doing that as a bluff.
i gues your right that a tight guy might be less likely to make his play without the T, i was working off the assumption that the villain was shoving any A or any T(which of course may be wrong) ... when i said tight, i was just talking about the chance that the villain is going to 2.5x preflop with with hands <T7, if he can then then there are more T's in his range... if however he is fold/limping T2 through T9 then you can eliminate some T's from his range :P
As always when you are talking in hypotheticals there are so many different possibilities... game flow and the specific vilain really have a big impact on which decision i make here. if the guy is passive and letting you run him over then i would just fold and look for a better spot/continue to run him over, if hes super agro then just put on your seatbelt and hope you come out on top :)