Hey,I've started to play super turbos recently, have played 182 at the $10 level with an expected ROI of 13.4%, but my real ROI is 0.8%, so that's 23.5 buyins below EV in 182 games. My question is for anyone who plays these a lot, is this a normal swing in the super turbos? What were the biggest swings for you guys?Thanks
182 games is nothing. I would guess you'd need at least 1000 to even get an idea.How did you calculate your expected ROI? Just all-ins? I', curious how you came up with this number. waldie101
Yeah I know its not a big sample size, but its a decent difference betwean expected and actual ROI, that"s why I'm asking, is this a normal swing in this small number of games? My expected ROI comes from luck adjusted winnings in Holdem manager.
I don't know what the expected ROIs are for the lower stakes, but expect it to be MUCH lower than your ROI in any other husng. Since the games are much faster and only last a couple minutes, the variance will be much more extreme than say normal or turbo speed husngs. I know at the higher stakes, a 3% ROI over a 2000+ sample is considered very, very good. I would expect maybe a 5% ROI over a decent sample at the lower stakes, but don't hold me to it since I haven't played any of the super turbos.
I've seen people run well over 50 buyins below expectation.It's a good question, but just gives you a small idea of how sick expectation vs realized results can be in these.You could easily expect to win 30 buyins in a few hundred games and end up down 20 and that's not "holy shit once in a lifetime rare" variance.On the flip side, you could run well above expectation for awhile. It's less evident, as you can only really recognize it when solid winners win a ton more than is likely possible, since losing players that aren't losing as much as they should are 1) Not going to be recognizable and 2) Are not going to be likely to share this with others.
Yeah, thanks, I can see now that these swings are to be expected in super turbos.I've bottomed out at 30 buyins below EV yesterday, but today I'm back to minus 17 buyins, so I guess I should just grind and wait for the upswing.
Exactly, and it should be easier after your first big upswing, you'll realize how little you can control the luck, just worry about your decision making and in the end it will take care of itself (hopefully in the way of positive results if you're good at these).