Hi all...I was just wondering about playing 4/8/16/...64 player HU Shootouts. I play 4s occasionally, just for something a little different, and have noticed (while going through HEM) some 'regulars' playing them, that I don't see in the STTs. Now while they are fun, I have a hard time seeing how they are more profitable (esp in the long run) than playing normal HU SnGs (beit turbos or standard speed). I mean obviously (take a 4 player SnG) you will often enough not win, say you lose the FT, had you played 2 STTs you would only be down 2 tourney fees, but here you are down a whole buyin. Or say you lose 1st match of 1st tourney, then win 1st match of 2nd but lose FT, playing normal SnGs you will be down less because of the win.It seems to me, you need to get on a streak more often (DUH!), or maybe its just my HU SnGs (STT) that often seem to go W/L/WW/L/W/L/WWW/L etc? Sure I have gone on 8+ runs of wins, but not as often as Id like ;-) (does anyone?)Sure, ok when you do win you win 2x/4x whatever, but surely the variance has got to be higher playing these SO MTTs than a STT SnG.So, to actually ask a question or 3:i) Do (most?) people who play them buyin for the same amount as they would a STT Hu SnG? I most often move down for them, not entirely sure why...ii) Are there people who profit in the long run from these games? at 4s? 8s? 16s? larger?iii) Has anyone actually done any analysis on these games to find out how profitable they can be for certiain ITM/ROI in STTs? Is it even possible to translate between the 2? ie might a 12% ROI in STTs translate to a 8or9% ROI in 4 player SOs, or is there just no way to predict this? - I say less ROI as a) you need to win 2 in a row (so <win%) yet b) your ROI when you do is higher.I *have* played around with the husng.com variance calculator for 4 player SOs, but clicking update a few times for the same input I can see anything from -60 buyins to +60 after 100 games (with ~1/2.6 winrate needed for breakeven). And some are like an ECG of a heart attack, whereas some are relatively smooth (in comparison), so perhaps the way it is implemented is not suited to dealing with these games? ie input 2.20 loss, 5.8 win, winrate 0,3-0.4 Thanks in advance,Aaron.
There is one benefit with playing shootouts.. if you are in a 4 man hu shootout and you win your first game you will be "freerolling" the rake of the second match. i.e a 20+1 buy in where you win the first game will then translate into a 40+0 final game, so you get a discount on the rake. By playing shootouts you can also study your opponent if you win the first game fast, then pull up the other table and make notes on the other 2 players before you even play them. Though, you can also "lose" time, if your match is very short and you then have to wait a long time before the other match finish which will slash your hourly winrate unless you multitable yourself. People who profit, check out mad-shoe-ter at PS. The variance calculator that look like a heart attack is a pretty good indication of high high variance can be :)
The part about rake is not entirely true, as the fee is higher for the SOs, then for a STT.For example on FTP, i can play a $20+1 STT, or $20+1.50 4 player (so yes it is still reduced for the FT)But still this is a very small thing given if you win the 1st match and not the FT, you are $21.50 down, whereas the same result with 2 STTs we would only be down $2, and it seems you need to win 2 in a row a fair amount of time to counter this, even though you win 2x as much.While I get things like studying your opponents when waiting for the other table to finish etc, I was mostly asking strictly from a theoretical ROI/value POV.
On the Euro network im at rake is the same..which will then turn into a slightly higher ROI.. which I do find relevant to your question. other than that the amount won per game should be the same longterm
helloi play hu sng 4 players..on PS the rake is same like hu 2 players..i dont know why, but hu 4 seems me more profitable, cause if you win, you get 1 buy in free ( you get 3x buy in and have to win just 2 hu )...i think that everybody play poker for profit, so of course if you will W L W L W L in hu2, you lose only fee and in hu4 you down 3 buy in + fee...but to make profit also in hu2 you have to win games consecutevely and if you do that in hu4 you win more...only problem i see is when you finish first, you have to wait for you oponents and also in higher buy in is traffic pretty bad, but thats not my case :-)I have also one question concerning hu sng 4 players...I use holdem manager for tourney results, but in this case hu4 results are incorrect, is there any other software ( not PT3 ) which can tell me stuff like duration, hourly money, win amount.....or what you use for this
I was still thinking about comparison hu4 and hu2 sng and here are few numbers...I started play hu4 sng Turbo few days ago, so number of game played is low and results are not good, but let´s the different...I played 114 hu4 Turbos 11+0,5$ and 30 times I finished 4th, 19 times 3rd, 31 times 2nd and 34 times 1st ( I used pokerprolabs.com )...114 x 11,5usd minus 34 x 44 usd...total profit is +185$If I used my finish position to hu2 30 times + 19 times ( 4th and 3rd position ) I lost whole buy in + fee, thats -563,5$31 times I won in first hu and then lost in second hu ( 2nd position ), but I have to count 62 buy in + fee..thats -31$34 times ( 1st position ) I won in first and won in second hu, so I have to count 68 buy in + fee..thats +714total profit is +119,5$I didn´t calculate a time, when you win first hu and have to wait for your opponent, cause I don´t know how should I do thatSo the point is, how many times you finish on 2nd position, that´s make a different..I purchase a membership here, so I hope I can be better and make a better hourly profit then now...any comments are very welcome
I have been thinking about this issue as well, and here are my observations:(Some of these are repeats of what has been said already)1. I play on PS, and the rake is the same for a four-player match as a two-player match. Basically, this cuts the rake in half. If the rake structure on your site is 1.5x the two-player rake, then you are effectively saving 25% rake.2. Assuming all players in the four-player sng are of equal skill level, in the long run it does matter that you need to win two in a row. You can WW/WL/L ... and since you will Lose half the time in your first match (again assuming equal skill levels), then you need to add one "L", so it looks like ... WW/WL/L/L. The effect of this is that you will win 25% of time instead of 50% of the two-player match, but you will win twice as much AND save some money on rake. HOWEVER, because you are winning a larger amount of money less often, your immediate variance will increase, so it will take you more tournaments to "get into the long run". This is somewhat offset by the lower rake.3. But here is the main problem of these shootouts: All players are not of equal skill level. This means that you will you be playing the most skillful player in the tournament (besides yourself, of course!) more often than either of the two lesser-skilled players. As an example, let's say you are the most skillful player, but one of three of your opponents is also highly skilled. In a two-player tournament, you will be facing this skilled opponent only one in three times. But in a shootout, you will be facing this same opponent one in three times IN THE FIRST ROUND. Assuming you are not paired with this opponent the first round and you defeat one of your less-skill opponents, you will be facing your most-skilled opponent MORE THAN HALF THE TIME. So depending on the skill-level differences, the reduced rake may not actually compensate for the fact that you will face tougher opponents more often. (in my opinion, I don't think the reduced rake is worth it)4. To reiterate another point, in a shootout you are often sitting and waiting for the other match, which will reduce your hourly profit. I believe this could easily reduce your profit by 10% or more.
Here it is, smth interesting:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58/heads-up-nl/answering-4-man-vs-2-ma...