Just keep it up, sometimes you move up 2-3 stakes in 800 games without having to move down, sometimes it takes 5 tries or so to get into a level.I believe personally that I took a few tries going from $10 to $20 before I went back to $11 turbo. From there I encountered very little resistence getting into the $115s. From there I stuck around for awhile, with solid success in $200 shots (but game selection fish shots almost always, so sample was tiny). Then the first time I played $230s, about 10 months after I had started in the $5s, I lost 20-25 buyins. It sucked, a friend had built an equity program similar to HEM's EV, but rather than really think about improving my game, I took solace in the fact that I ran like shit and I had positive expectation (during that sample, I could've ran good with expectation and ran like shit in results though, who knows really). The next shot I took in $230s was similar, another 20-25 buyins, same type of variance. Recently I lost 10k in $200s before getting back into the positive. HEM showed I was down over 5k in EV several times throughout that stretch. I'm also certain that card distribution was horrendous during this time period. But you make the best of it, you make sure a 10k downer doesn't turn into 15k without variance kicking your butt. This time I focused on my game and knew I was a winning player and just kept at it. It wasn't nearly as tough as the 4-5k downswings I had endured in the past. I'm comfortable in the games that I play and I'm focusing on my own play much more than my results, not only when I'm playing (though especially when I am playing) but also when the games are over. I check my EV graphs, sure, I love graphs and stats, but I take it with a grain of salt. There are still plenty of holes in the EV graphs, even if they are better indicators than actual results. The lesson you can learn from me though is what I stated in the opening sentence: Sometimes it'll be tough moving up, sometimes you'll think you should've moved up months ago, with the relative ease going on. Just always focus on your game and use responsible bankroll management and you should be in great shape long term.
<a href="http://www.shrani.si/?1n/K2/2tAYIlQI/husng1.jpg"><img src="http://www.shrani.si/t/1n/K2/2tAYIlQI/husng1.jpg" style="border: 0px;" alt="Shrani.si"/></a> I feel you. I had the same problem when moving from 11s to 22s, have run negative roi for more than 150 games. And I'm having the same problems at the 33s now, but I know I'll manage to grind it out.It's sick how you grind your roll for a shot and then dump it all in like 24minutes, but thats poker i guess :) Anyway, I hope you make it!
Thanks for the comments guys!Yeah, I know that'll just happen, and I'm using a pretty consevative BR startegy so no big deal, I was able to laugh at it. I think that's a good way to take it... so concentrated for the shot, then 6 suckouts later ups... shot over, hehe, no problem, get it back up and try again. Funnyest thing was I actually played a bunch of fish during the shot with crazy bad stats.Thanks for sharing your experience going up Ry... the mentality you have achieved about good/bad luck in poker is certainly one I aim for.And Wabo, thanks, gl man! I'll see you at the 100s soon!
Second try successful!I just quit smoking and I've been almost unable to play for 2 weeks, god bad habits are tough. Anyways, finally got some games in, got back up to shot-taking bankroll, and I'm a few BIs up in the new level, so hopefully established in the 55s now.
LOL, I have a rather interesting (similar) situation - since starting to really put some effort into my game (reading/reviewing/joining husng.com) I have gone on a massive downswing! Although HEM does tell me even running at EV I should be down, it is having a really strainge effect on me. And tbh Im not sure what to do about it. I know I cant keep losing forever, and normally I embrace variance as just part of the game that needs to be accepted, but seriously - yesterday alone I had about 12 games in a row where, I played ok - built a nice 2300/700 chip lead (or thereabouts), get it in dominating my opponent (lost count of my AK < K6 hands) and lose... followed by another lost allin pot, where again I was ahead going in.... ARGGHHH! I never really thought about the limits of how many successive times you could lose a 70/30 - I am starting to know all about it now though!I am having to repeat Ryan's last sentence above, almost like a mantra, to save myself going nuts!
I just wanted to toss out an observation about EV calculations by programs such as HEM. My poker coach mentioned this to me a while back.The actual cards that an opponent can have throw a massive amount of variance into these calculations. EV is not particularly useful unless that EV is calculated against your opponents' probable entire range (not just his actual hand), which is clearly impossible/impractical.The variance introduced by your opponents' possible hand ranges is probably equally great as the variance caused by the random outcome of the hand, although the better hand reader you are, the less effect this will have. since the opponent's range can be reduced.
If you take shots at the different levels, you will probably eventually experience both surprisingly negative and positive variance. It took me a ridiculous amount of tries to make it through the $31.50 games. I only play one buyin shots so when my br was greater than $900, I would play at the $31.50 games until it fell below $900 again. It took me several hundred games before I was able to stay at the $31.50 games and not have to move down. However, once I had a $1750 bankroll which was my cutoff for the $50 games, I succeeded on my second shot at the $50s and have breezed through that level. I almost have enough to start taking shots at the $100 games now, although I'm being extra careful because I've heard there is a bigger skill difference between $50 -> $100 games than anything before that.
Just keep it up, sometimes you move up 2-3 stakes in 800 games without having to move down, sometimes it takes 5 tries or so to get into a level.I believe personally that I took a few tries going from $10 to $20 before I went back to $11 turbo. From there I encountered very little resistence getting into the $115s. From there I stuck around for awhile, with solid success in $200 shots (but game selection fish shots almost always, so sample was tiny). Then the first time I played $230s, about 10 months after I had started in the $5s, I lost 20-25 buyins. It sucked, a friend had built an equity program similar to HEM's EV, but rather than really think about improving my game, I took solace in the fact that I ran like shit and I had positive expectation (during that sample, I could've ran good with expectation and ran like shit in results though, who knows really). The next shot I took in $230s was similar, another 20-25 buyins, same type of variance. Recently I lost 10k in $200s before getting back into the positive. HEM showed I was down over 5k in EV several times throughout that stretch. I'm also certain that card distribution was horrendous during this time period. But you make the best of it, you make sure a 10k downer doesn't turn into 15k without variance kicking your butt. This time I focused on my game and knew I was a winning player and just kept at it. It wasn't nearly as tough as the 4-5k downswings I had endured in the past. I'm comfortable in the games that I play and I'm focusing on my own play much more than my results, not only when I'm playing (though especially when I am playing) but also when the games are over. I check my EV graphs, sure, I love graphs and stats, but I take it with a grain of salt. There are still plenty of holes in the EV graphs, even if they are better indicators than actual results. The lesson you can learn from me though is what I stated in the opening sentence: Sometimes it'll be tough moving up, sometimes you'll think you should've moved up months ago, with the relative ease going on. Just always focus on your game and use responsible bankroll management and you should be in great shape long term.
<a href="http://www.shrani.si/?1n/K2/2tAYIlQI/husng1.jpg"><img src="http://www.shrani.si/t/1n/K2/2tAYIlQI/husng1.jpg" style="border: 0px;" alt="Shrani.si"/></a> I feel you. I had the same problem when moving from 11s to 22s, have run negative roi for more than 150 games. And I'm having the same problems at the 33s now, but I know I'll manage to grind it out.It's sick how you grind your roll for a shot and then dump it all in like 24minutes, but thats poker i guess :) Anyway, I hope you make it!
Thanks for the comments guys!Yeah, I know that'll just happen, and I'm using a pretty consevative BR startegy so no big deal, I was able to laugh at it. I think that's a good way to take it... so concentrated for the shot, then 6 suckouts later ups... shot over, hehe, no problem, get it back up and try again. Funnyest thing was I actually played a bunch of fish during the shot with crazy bad stats.Thanks for sharing your experience going up Ry... the mentality you have achieved about good/bad luck in poker is certainly one I aim for.And Wabo, thanks, gl man! I'll see you at the 100s soon!
Second try successful!I just quit smoking and I've been almost unable to play for 2 weeks, god bad habits are tough. Anyways, finally got some games in, got back up to shot-taking bankroll, and I'm a few BIs up in the new level, so hopefully established in the 55s now.
LOL, I have a rather interesting (similar) situation - since starting to really put some effort into my game (reading/reviewing/joining husng.com) I have gone on a massive downswing! Although HEM does tell me even running at EV I should be down, it is having a really strainge effect on me. And tbh Im not sure what to do about it. I know I cant keep losing forever, and normally I embrace variance as just part of the game that needs to be accepted, but seriously - yesterday alone I had about 12 games in a row where, I played ok - built a nice 2300/700 chip lead (or thereabouts), get it in dominating my opponent (lost count of my AK < K6 hands) and lose... followed by another lost allin pot, where again I was ahead going in.... ARGGHHH! I never really thought about the limits of how many successive times you could lose a 70/30 - I am starting to know all about it now though!I am having to repeat Ryan's last sentence above, almost like a mantra, to save myself going nuts!
I just wanted to toss out an observation about EV calculations by programs such as HEM. My poker coach mentioned this to me a while back.The actual cards that an opponent can have throw a massive amount of variance into these calculations. EV is not particularly useful unless that EV is calculated against your opponents' probable entire range (not just his actual hand), which is clearly impossible/impractical.The variance introduced by your opponents' possible hand ranges is probably equally great as the variance caused by the random outcome of the hand, although the better hand reader you are, the less effect this will have. since the opponent's range can be reduced.
If you take shots at the different levels, you will probably eventually experience both surprisingly negative and positive variance. It took me a ridiculous amount of tries to make it through the $31.50 games. I only play one buyin shots so when my br was greater than $900, I would play at the $31.50 games until it fell below $900 again. It took me several hundred games before I was able to stay at the $31.50 games and not have to move down. However, once I had a $1750 bankroll which was my cutoff for the $50 games, I succeeded on my second shot at the $50s and have breezed through that level. I almost have enough to start taking shots at the $100 games now, although I'm being extra careful because I've heard there is a bigger skill difference between $50 -> $100 games than anything before that.