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kallnATC's picture
Avoiding Variance? Anyone? And two thumbs up to Cog and Primo!

I've been a long time poker fan (tv), but a very casual player.  I was the type of player who didn't understand variance and bankroll managment.  I would always play at the highest stakes my bankroll would allow.  Meaning, $30.00 in account = $5.00 9man s-n-g's.  I'd usually run my balance up around $100.00.  Feeling like king of the world, I'd buy into a full ring 100NL game, then go broke set over set, or full house over full house.  I'd wait a few months for the bug to hit, reload, and repeat. I had never heard of HUSNG's, until I was bored at work, surfing around on youtube, and ran into a video made by a coach at another site.  He wanted $189 sign up fee, and 29.99 a month.  I didn't want to invest this kind of cash, but the HUSNG's looked like fun.  I loaded $50.00 onto Full Tilt Sunday, signed up for a raketherake rakeback deal, and went on to lose every cent in my account by Tuesday. Obviously, I had alot to learn.  There was no way I was going to invest $200 bucks in a video training site, so I looked around, and joined HUSNG.com.  I learned about bankroll managment from the forums, and watched most of cog and primo's videos.  Two thumbs up!  Anyway, on Friday, $4.00 from raketherake, appeared in my Full Tilt account, and after watching the vids, I started at the $1.10's.  Then, I moved up to the $2.15's, when I had $20.00 in my account.  Then I moved up to the $5.25's when I had $100.  From there, it took me 30 days and 330 games to double the $100 to $200.  That's about an 8% ROI and 57% ITM.  Please, don't get me wrong.  This isn't a brag thread.  Obviously, I'm not crushing the micro stakes with a 18%+ ROI. I'm looking for areas to improve, but I don't really know where to start.  The only thing I know is my graph looks like a cardiac patient in VFIB ...http://www.pokerprolabs.com/topsharkpro/graph/TotalProfitByGamesPlayed?id=42865963&pnid=2&tt=4I asked this question in 2 plus 2, and of course, and of course was promptly called an idiot.  So, I will ask here.  I don't expect to be told <em>specific</em> things that I am doing wrong.  I also understand that 5% of the time, my top set will go down to a runner runner straight.  But in the broadest terms, what are some sources of variance I could look out for?  That is to say, where do new fishy types tend to make the most mistakes?  Pot control?  Over aggression?  Getting overly commited with marginal hands?  Is there a particular video someone would recommend that addresses these types of errors?

RyPac13's picture
There are so many aspects to

There are so many aspects to heads up sngs that there isn't a specific pattern that struggling players follow.  In your case, it's even tougher, since you are winning and not necessarily "struggling" in the sense that somebody would label you that way.Lets take a look at some of your examples in your question, to show how difficult it is to give advice on broad topics without more information:- Pot control: Some struggling, newer or slightly winning players will show strength in value betting, but will not slow down or control the pot when needed.  They can still win since value betting is an essential skill, depending on how well they value bet when doing so correctly, but their leak is that they lack pot control.  On the other hand, others know how to control the pot, but they sometimes overapply this and do not maximize value in spots with hands that should continue to bet, rather than take pot control lines.  So a losing or winning player can both understand this concept but overapply and also not understand it and not apply it at all.Over aggression is kind of covered in the pot control paragraph if you make some basic assumptions.Here's what I would suggest, based on your post:Videos - Cog Dissonance videos will really help you identify player types and learn some of the fundamentals of pot control, value betting and adjustments.  HokieGreg's videos should also give you a good idea of a very solid, fundamentally sound strategy that exploits opponents to the fullest.Give some of those videos a try and see how you like them.  From there, xSCWx and ITRIED2WARNU will also offer you some high level, solid play that can be applied to any level and games.  Mersenneary's videos are a must watch for improving end game, but you might want to start with one of his and mix them in slowly as you watch other videos, he covers the end game in a very advanced way.But if you want to truly identify your own leaks quickly and efficiently, you should also post some individual hands in the HH forum here.  Try to find some spots where you decided to get aggressive with a hand, both marginal (or bluff) and a somewhat strong hand.  Try to find other spots where you pot controlled a strong hand, as well as a weak one.  Find some hands against an opponent you felt was difficult to play and adjust to or where you weren't sure of what to do against them.Posting those types of hands in the forum should really give you some instant feedback on where you might be going wrong and what you might be doing right.  Getting confidence from positive feedback can be very valuable, so it's not just going to be helpful to see where you are incorrect, the spots you are correct in are good as well.