I apologize if this has already been answered by one of the coaches here, if it was I missed it.How accurate is the Holdem Manager equity graph, as an indicator of what your win rate should be in Super Turbo sngs? I would have thought because these games get to the push/fold stage very quickly that it would be a good indicator. I have run below the estimated equity in each of the last 6 months, anywhere from 10 to 50 buyins per month. For the first few months I thought it was bad luck, but as it continues I'm thinking that I've misunderstood the graph all along and I've grossly overestimated my ability in these things. According to the adjusted equity, my roi over 5500 games should be 4.2%, and yet I'm running at exactly half that, 2.1%.I've played various sngs for years, 9 man, 6 man, and now hu, but this last 6 months is beyond anything I've ever experienced. The only way I can describe it is, soul crushing.I'd post a screenshot of the graph, but this is already sounding like a bad beat whine.
well, im not a coach, i do not fully believe equity graphs for SNGs anyway. But what i can say is that if you run an roi of 2.1% on the superturbos you are pro allready.
Smart money says that all in EV is a better indicator of your actual skills and level of play than your actual results. That, however, does not make it perfect, nor entirely accurate.Playing super turbos brings in other variables all in EV (nor results) can track. Starting hand distribution, flop distribution, to name two, are things that won't be picked up in HEM and can be vastly important.Additionally, look at many player's graphs in super turbos. PrimordialAA, 16colordeck, h2olga, to name a few, are very good super turbo players. You can also look at our very own Cog Dissonance and Mersenneary.All 5 of the players that I named have over 6k super turbos played by now. And each one has had vastly different parts of their graph, as far as profit and success goes. I would guess at least 3 out of the 5 of them, if not all 5, are truly 3-4% ROI range players, and while the 2-4% ROIs that they have do fall in line with that general expectation, you can see how they can run very hot or very cold for pretty long stretches.Basically, use the all in EV as your indicator, but not as an excuse. You want to understand that you're likely a 3-4% ROI player in these at this point in time and the 2% ROI you experienced is just a number. If you're in it for the long term, the 4% expectation is a better number to have along with the 2% realized results than if you had a 4% ROI in these but only expected 2%. Why? Because expectation tends to even out over time, therefore you want to maximize expectation and the results will eventually follow.But you shouldn't even be unhappy with a 2% ROI. That's pretty good on its own, let alone as half of your expectation. These are super turbos, you're similar to a low stakes player with a 10% ROI in a regular speed structure, you're one of the more successful players in these.
To expound on one of Ryan's points, though HEM EV is a better indicator than actual results, computer software will likely never be able to provide terribly accurate EV calculations for games with lots of variance.One major reason is, as Ryan mentioned, starting hand distribution. Related to that is the fact that when EV is calculated for a postflop decision, your villain has a specific hand, whereas he would take the exact same action with a potentially wide range of hands.So say the flop is AcJc2s, you had raised preflop with AK, you get allin, and your opponent shows AJ.I honestly don't know if this is a realistic example for Super Turbos, as I don't play them, but do you see the problem with an EV calculation here? If you consider your opponent's entire range...MAYBE any ace (as I said maybe not...just making something up as I don't play Super Turbos!), any flush draw, sets, perhaps he even pushed a gutshot or complete air.So without knowing Villain's entire range at some particular action point, you really cannot derive an entirely accurate EV calculation. Computer programs will need to get a hell of a lot more sophisticated in order to come up with accurate EV calculations.
In hindsight my original post seems a little ungrateful, Whaaa I'm winning but not enough. I just find super turbos so frustrating.I really appreciate the detailed replies, it lets me know that I am on the right track.I know what you mean about the hand distribution. I suspect a lot of people are like me and think, boy I'm haven't had a good hand this whole game, then you check the hand history and realize you forgot about the 88, aj, and aq that you had.This site continues to be a great help. Going forward I'm going to try to work on staying more positive.Thanks again guys.