No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 PlayersHand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converterBTNkigeki2400 BBHero600 Effective Stacks: 15bbBlinds 20/40Pre-Flop (60, 2 players)Hero is BB kigeki raises to 80, Hero goes all-in 600, kigeki calls 520Flop (1200, 2 players, 1 all-in) Turn (1200, 2 players, 1 all-in)River (1200, 2 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: 1200kigeki shows kigeki wins 1200 ( won +600 )Hero lost -600 So this is a couple of hands after villain took most of my stack. He had been min raising about 65% of the time. I think a call here is actually better with a hand that does so well post flop. Are there any times when a shove here is better than flatting??
If Villain is minraising 65% (and not shoving any, i.e. 22), then you have an optimal shoving range of 43.8%:AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K5o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9oAnd his optimal calling range is 33%:AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K4s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-QTo,JToThis results in an EV for you of +26.5 and for him of +58.6 for the pushed hands, and +33.5 overall (including hands you fold).******If you are shoving this unexploitable range and he is calling with the appropriate unexploitable call, then shoving QJs here yields you an EV of +49.4 and his overall EV will be +10.6.******If Villain calls PERFECTLY (after raising 65%) because you flip QJs face up and he knows your hand, then your EV will be +31.1 and his (overall) EV will be 28.9.His calling range will need to look like this:AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs,AKo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJoAny subtraction from this range will quickly cause your EV to increase and his to decrease. Removing K6o-K2o and K4s-K2s changes your EV to +39.6 and his to 20.4.Adding hands to his range will cause a bigger change for the better.******So considering your EV here AT WORST is +31.1, now you need to ask yourself...do you think by flatting OOP you can outplay him enough to beat a 3/4bb EV? I'm guessing not, especially considering that if you flat call and the hand is ALWAYS checked down, your EV is only +31.0.
Wow ok, im not a math guy and all and havent played around with pokerstove or anything like that but thanks for clarifying. maybe i am overvaluing my post flop edge on him, i just felt that there could be a better way for me to exploit him.