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Roamus's picture
Flop a set of aces and get pwned :) STANDARD

Can I realy fold?Seat 1: Roamus (1,440)Seat 2: annierocker (1,560)Roamus posts the small blind of 15annierocker posts the big blind of 30The button is in seat #1*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Roamus [Ah Ad]Roamus raises to 60annierocker calls 30*** FLOP *** [9s Ac 6s]annierocker checksRoamus bets 60annierocker calls 60*** TURN *** [9s Ac 6s] [Ts]annierocker checksRoamus bets 120annierocker raises to 360 Roamus calls 240*** RIVER *** [9s Ac 6s Ts] [5c]annierocker bets 360Roamus calls 360*** SHOW DOWN ***annierocker shows [7s Ks] a flush, King highRoamus mucks

qattack's picture
No, you cannot possibly fold

No, you cannot possibly fold this without any extreme reads. I plugged this into pokerstove.If we assume that Villain's ranged consists of {Any Ace, Any Fullhouse, Any two spades (incl. 32s), T9, and 87}, you still have a whopping 51.954% equity.Notice that "Any Ace" includes only a pair of aces with a flush draw. He may well be flat calling those, so if we take those out of his range completely, then your turn equity is still 39.744%. This equity drops to 23.077% on the river, but you are getting such great odds that you must call. The amount to call is 27.7%, so if he's ever bluffing the river, it's an easy call.Of course, these last calculations took out the fact that he may be raising the turn with Ax with his nut flush draw or some really weird two pair or weird bluff (i.e. T8).I think I would just jam the turn, as you definitely don't want another spade. Perhaps if blufftard then it's good to flat here. (?)

ITRIED2WARNU's picture
You said you included "any

You said you included "any full house" into PokerStove.. if that was a concern I doubt this thread would exist.  :)Not sure if that changes the calculations though, I'm not familiar with PokerStove.  But its really tough to fold on this river Roamus, although the turn is a horrible card for us.  It completes both the open ended straight draw, and the flush which is going to be a ton of his flatting range.  Although its tough sometimes, you may consider checking on a turn when it is this bad.  I wouldn't fold to that bet size on the river either though, for what its worth. 

Brent
ITRIED2WARNU

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qattack's picture
LOL, when I have trip AAA on

LOL, when I have trip AAA on this board, Villain ALWAYS has a fullhouse!I meant sets, of course. LOL.