Villain had been raising 67% preflop. This was about our 25th hand. I think we'd only seen one hand previously with him IP, maybe two. He cbet that one (or two). We had not continued past the flop in most hands and all pots were small. In contrast to his IP play, he was calling 90% OOP.I thought about 3B before the flop, but the combination of 4x betsize and the fact that I had no idea how he'd react prevented me from doing so. I believe he would have flatted most hands, with 4B being the next most likely action.I checked the flop, intending to checkraise. However, after he bet, I thought the stack sizes were incredibly awkward. After thinking a while, I finally just shoved.What is a better line here? No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$11.00+$0.50Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converterSBnorocel251385 BBHero1615 Effective Stacks: 46bbBlinds 15/30
- Pre-Flop (45, 2 players) Hero is BB
norocel25 raises to 120, Hero calls 90
- Flop (240, 2 players)
Hero checks, norocel25 bets 210, Hero goes all-in 1495, norocel25 goes all-in 1055
- Turn (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in)
- River (3000, 2 players, 2 all-in)
- Final Pot: 3000
- norocel25 shows a pair of Queens
- Hero shows a flush, Ace high
- Hero wins 3000 ( won +1385 )
- norocel25 lost -1385
If 4X was his standard raise and and ~210 his standard c-bet I think a shove would be good. If not, then you really have to think hard about how much fold equity you have in a spot like that, as 210 does look like a Q protecting itself from the flush and straight draw.If it was a pot size bet I'd shove as many fish have standard c-bets of pot size. But 210 is a weird bet.
To correct my inital reads, this is hand #27. When I was the raiser, he often called preflop (90%+). He continued only one hand postflop, calling both a Flop and River bet on 3K468 with AJo.He had cbet the only OOP call I had made with 100 into 160. 4x was his normal raise.Other than that, we hadn't played past the flop or in 3B pots.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you need him to fold over 25% of the time to break even. And thats being conservative.I guess that means is he needs to be betting 210 on that flop with hands that fold 25% of the time. Based on his first bet I would expect a normal c-bet to be 2/3 pot. I don't think a 210 c-bet is folding enough.I think without any reads that he is frequently betting large on the flop you have to fold in that position.
I think your are right in your assumption fuseo.If i run it through pokerstove giving villain a range of: All Qx hands, KK, AK, AJ, AT, J5+, it gives villain 53,857% equity against your hand, therefore you need villain to fold around 29% of the time to break even. But if add some 5x hands and 76 we get some more equity but dont know how likely those hands are to be in villains range??