Id guess 2 pair or trips. I'd just fold.

You need some very solid reads for making a call here imo. The board he c-raises you on is very dry so you cant put him on any missed draws. Id fold 97% of the time here.

Hi, I was wondering if someone could correct my thinking in this hand.... So, with the small amount of information we have thus far, we can assume villain is a decent winning reg (modest roi over a decent sample size). We also know that villain has called 3/3 of our cbets so they may be on the laggy side or that they are calling relatively wide oop (small sample I know) and that they have folded to 2/3 of our flop cbets.Flop - Given our cbet % thus far and this being a relativle dry flop, I figure any moderately good opponent would see this as a good spot to c/r. I can see villain making this c/r with total air, weak semi-draws (67, 9T, J9,97, type hands with bd flush draws), and strong made hands (better Qx, 2pairs and sets), and possibly some weaker pairs - like stong 8x.Turn - His overbet/shove is what confuses me. I'm going to assume that villain is at least a level 2 or 3 thinker, given their SS stats/stakes, as well as their c/r sizing and the fact that they choose this flop to c/r. Now, if I was trying to put myself in villains position, i could see 2 tangents to thier thought process here for making the shove ott:1) Villain has a weak hand/air - possibly some type of semidraw. He/she made a play at the flop and we called. Considering we called, villain most likely assumes we have some sort of equity in the hand, but since we called our equity is most likely weak (so possibly 8x, weaker Qx, pp's like 99, TT, JJ, and maybe some 5x hands). Villain probably assumes this as they we would most likely 3bet all our strong hands - Q9+, 2 pair, sets, and overcards - though we may decide to sp our sets considering board texture to keep in villains air). When the 2 bricks off, it really isn't a good spot to continue with all of thier air/semibluff range as we will most likely be calling another bet with good 8x hands, and our Qx hands - however, villain considers our flat to be weak so by shoving villain knows we really can't stand that kind of pressure with our c/r flatting range (and they might have a few outs if called).2) Still assuming villain is a level 2 or 3 thinker - but possibly they are more likely a higher thinker. Villain does have a made hand, such as a strong Q (we will say Q9-QJ again, possibly KQ though I would expect them to 3bet this a large % of the time so roughly 28 combos disounting some KQ hands), 2-pair (85 - 9 combos, Q5 - 6 combos, Q8 - 6 combos), and sets (3 combos of 55, 3 of 88) totalling 55 combos. Villain c/r the flop for value and we called - so he/she is considering our range to be similar to the range described in tangent 1. Now, assuming that they know that we know the turn 2 is a bad card to continue with their bluffs, and that our range is significantly weaker (considering our flop actions and their hand strength/blockers) if they continue with a "normal" sized bet ott we could find a fold with a large % of our range. However, if they shove - we may be more inclinded to hero call as their line looks fos.These are the only real 2 logical scenarios that make sense to me, considering villains strange line. I would figure a more traditional value line to bet the turn smaller, but enough to get stacks in otr (like 300ish), especially considering the dry texture of the flop and the turn bricking off. Villain might be more inclined to take this line IF he/she had a read that we were fishy (but considering this is only 5 or 6 hands in, and that we raised pre and cbet the flop in all of our previous hands they have no reason to assume this). Also- it is difficult to assume villain would take such a fancy line as described in tangent 2, as again they are readless (no meta game from previous matches) and most often they will lose so much value considering our flop flatting range. So, I guess my questions are as followed:1)Is my thought process flawed here? Am I out thinking myself?2)Are we basing our decision to fold on the fact that we are largely readless? Is this based out of population tendencies at this level (I only play 10's, so don't know)?3) If we were to assume the 2 tangents described above to be correct, what % of air would villain need to have to make our call profitable (I suck at math)?If you took the time to read this long post thanks!

MrRunsGood, I think a lot of the time it is a cr bluff following through, as well as a missed draw. The fact that we don't reraise shows we are not super strong and that's maybe why he shoves.

You could level yourself thinking about this spot. For example he could shove the 2 because he thinks your hand strength had not been reduced and you will still call with a Q (one of the few hands flatting a cr). Who knows.

I think you have to fold because you are readless and your raw hand strength.