Hi all, I have a interesting hand to share. Folding nuts flush on the river Villan is kinda flop bluffy but very rarely bets the river without obv value.We are very early in the match. My plan was to VB the river but the Qc made me thing what worse FD could he be chasing. After the match I know that he was limping fair amount of hands so he definitly could have both, 8c and Kc. I thought about bet folding but decided to XC rather some reasonable bet, becouse I only get raised by a better hand and think that aspecially with the 4th club on the river all worse hands are folding. But the pot size convinced me I was definitly behind as I dont expect my opponent to bluff this sick. Seriously after the match I am sure that any straight, any two pair and any lower flush besides the straight flush is checking behind.I know its very small BI but I am quite sure about my decision to fold. Only wanted to hear an opinion of some other people If I am thinking right about the hand. I think If I BF or XC I am left with only about 800 chips in case of BF and with much less in case of XC against a very bad player.Full Tilt Poker Game #26771115432: $5 + $0.25 Heads Up Sit & Go (207886696), Table 1 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:20:39 ET - 2010/12/28Seat 1: AizyAiz (1,510)Seat 2: Nitrip (1,490)AizyAiz posts the small blind of 10Nitrip posts the big blind of 20The button is in seat #1*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Nitrip [Ac 6c]AizyAiz calls 10Nitrip checks*** FLOP *** [Ks Tc Jc]Nitrip checksAizyAiz bets 40Nitrip has 15 seconds left to actNitrip raises to 130AizyAiz calls 90*** TURN *** [Ks Tc Jc] [9c]Nitrip has 15 seconds left to actNitrip bets 222AizyAiz calls 222*** RIVER *** [Ks Tc Jc 9c] [Qc]Nitrip has 15 seconds left to actNitrip has requested TIMENitrip checksAizyAiz bets 744Nitrip has 15 seconds left to actNitrip has requested TIMENitrip foldsUncalled bet of 744 returned to AizyAizAizyAiz mucksAizyAiz wins the pot (744)*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 744 | Rake 0Board: [Ks Tc Jc 9c Qc]Seat 1: AizyAiz (small blind) collected (744), muckedSeat 2: Nitrip (big blind) folded on the River
wow this hand is so absurdly sick. i think i would bet/fold small in most situations in a low buyin game because I don't give my opponent credit for folding something like a straight here even though it's a 4flush board. we block the 6c which is unfortunate and once we check i absolutely agree with your decision to fold, but i do think a bet of 1/4 or 1/3 pot would be best here against someone i thought was a bad player.
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I thought that block bet this small could made him think I dont have a club at all and induce a bluff raise, so I thought If I bet i would have to close my eyes and call the raise, but I didnt want to because I thing he is only bluffing very small % of the time and he cant possibly try to make me fold an Ac. As VitalMyth says, If yes than he is a smart player and good for him. But I dont think so :D. I had like no reads on him besides that he XR the flop like 3 times in 12 hands but he slowed down on the turn or the river.
I don't think he automatically puts you on Ac, in fact, I would say your hand looks a lot weaker on this river than most situations where you CR and fire the turn.How aggressive have you been?Folding this strong of a hand without knowing your opponent very well is usually not correct in my mind.The problem I have is not that you considered folding, but it's that this is early in the match, you have evidence that he'll bluff in at least one spot (flop bluff) and while 8c is possible and Kc is somewhat possible, a lot of players fastplay Kc in this situation.So this is just a soft stance, but I think it's very possible you read too much into this player too early in the match. If you've had 3 matches prior to this or something, that can change. I'd be certain this is incorrect if I could place some more potential bluffing hands in villain's range, but it's one of those spots where you probably expect him to turn some sort of a hand into a bluff a % of the time to make this a clear call. I'm not convinced of that, but I'm also not convinced of Kc a great deal of the time here either.So my main factors in this hand that are leading me to a slight call conclusion are: 1) You aren't repping huge strength necessarily 2) It's early in the match, any reads you have aren't hard reads, particularly not bluffing the river (and considering he's bluffed the flop it's really difficult to eliminate a river bluff from his range) 3) Four flush, five straight boards are probably the most likely spots for somebody to turn a pair or weak hand into a bluff given you don't look very strong.If I'm mistaken on some of those variables that can easily change my opinion here, I just think this is a good analysis by you but a little too specific given the situation.
THX a lot for your analysis. I was actually very interrested in your opinion and hoped you were going to comment. I have to agree that its probaly sort of my leak that I overestimate the players in general. Until this hand I opened like 2/3 of my buttons and have Cbet probably every time he didnt fold his BB. I havent XR a single flop and tried to keep it small out of position. We played like 70 hands till the end of the match and I have to say that I never cought him bluffing with showdown value type of hands, or when X to him, he wasnt betting more than 1/3 of the time on the turn and river. couple hands after this one he lost almost the whole stack (9BBs left) Donkbet bluffing and rebluffing on 747 flop where I had a 76 with A9o. But never bluffed on turn and river, never double barreled and stuff like this, but he was chasing all the draws hard. So by now I would probably BF and have to agree that it was a mistake not to bet. You are also very true that most players would fastplay Kc and I made a mistake by not taking this into consideration. But the flop structures he XR on were totally dry flops with one high card and two low cards, so I asume he never semibluffed.The whole problem is probaly thet I didnt want to ship him so many chips just because he is so bad early in the match. My problem is I just dont get the lines some of the players use and still end up thinking: Would he play it so bad if he rally had it??? And of course the answer is yes. I am trying to find a way to deal with it couse I know I would probably be already on 20 or 30 level If I was able to adjust better to non thinking and randomly thinking players. I either overestimate them (most of the time) or underestimate but never seem to be on the right level. I had the same problem in cash games and I probably try to be aware of situations where they rep so little but always had in the past end where I ended up calling becouse it was such a good spot to do something I would do or ended up shiping my whole stack for the same reason :). So its probably a mindset problem more or less.
5$ husng? am I the only one thinking that I fist pump shove / call ?villain is not thinking and prolly has no clue about hand strength on different boared texture I may be a fish But this villain isnt a super genious... hes not putting you on any hand he doesnt even think about thinking about ur range... he just shove for a value any straigth flush 2pair and ....
After all you seem to be right. That fist pump made me laugh but I was trying to be thinking villan :D Probably to much of a thinker :D :D
5$ husng? am I the only one thinking that I fist pump shove / call ?villain is not thinking and prolly has no clue about hand strength on different boared texture I may be a fish But this villain isnt a super genious... hes not putting you on any hand he doesnt even think about thinking about ur range... he just shove for a value any straigth flush 2pair and ....
BTW metonezajima are you from Czech republic?
YES. :D I am.
Wait a sec, you're afraid of him having a straight flush here ... in a $5 ? After seeing what ... like 70 hands from him ? Seriously ? Omg.Yeah, you can really level yourself yourself here.If he has it, ok good for him - but imho you leave so much value on the table if your read is wrong. And tbh, I wouldn't ever even think about folding on the $55's here unless I had some really sick history with this player, played him for at least 10 matches and knew him very well.