Hey Guy's,First of all: Your site is really awesome and I learned sooo much in the last month.Thank you for that!!!Now my question is:What ROI is realistic for a "good" player who is working a lot on his Endgame?For the 10$, 20$, 35$ and 50$ Super Turbo level?I am planning to switch to those type of games, but can't really imagine what is realistic on a descend Samplesize.Thanks for your answer RegardsMareen
I haven't seen a lot of feedback from lower stakes ST pros. I think a lot to do with that is that earlier game strategy is usually developed to a high level before 15-25bb strategy (as that often requires accurate reads and adjustments from earlier in the match to fully take advantage of in regular structures). The result is that most players that are maximizing their edges in STs are players that have already beaten $100+ buyin levels.However, I've seen a few traditionally tighter players from the $50 buyin range have success in STs up to $100, and good success. That could easily be an outlier thing though (player running hot, not easily seen on EV charts that don't take into account hand distribution and flop distribution).I would aim for 2-3% ROI and if you're not seeing EV or results around that after 2-3k games, probably go back to another structure.I really don't think super turbos are a healthy choice for most low to mid stakes players that don't have a ton of experience. The swings even for really talented players are just too devastating to the mentality of lesser experienced players and the skills in that area of the game aren't usually developed by low stakes players right away.However, the videos on the site should take care of the latter, as there are now quite a few super turbo videos on this site from proven, top winning ST players.
I have found this site about 6 months ago and had no HU experiance before that. I have started to watch a ton of videos (all speeds) and grind the super turbos at the $5 level. In september I have decided to take them more seriously, bought 1 hour coaching from Cog and around this time his super turbo videos started to come out. I am now approaching $10000 in profit from these with an average buyin of $23 and an ROI of 7% over an 5700 games sample size. Learned a ton from the Cog and Mers super turbo videos, but also from most other coaches videos from different speeds. If you watch the videos and willing to work on your game, the fields in the $10-$50 STs are easily beatable.I think this says a lot from the power of this site!!!!! A big thank you for all the coaches!!
Screen name plz :) !!! ... I guess you need to have around 200 buy-in , i solid gane and never tilt ... And i believe on the long run , you gonna be a rakeback pro or 1-2% roi ...
@RyPac: Thank you for your quick and detailed answer! I think I will give them a try. @bubi: Wow, that sounds nice. Keep on working at your game and the average buyin will become $230 :-) Regards Mareen
Nothing wrong with a rakeback pro at 2% ROI.Average game speed is 2.5 minutes. Assuming 3 minutes to get a game and start, finish and start again (instant action at lower stakes) if you play the $30 level you're getting in 20 games per hour per table.Two tabling for a solid player is easier in this structure, as stack sizes don't vary as much as with deeper structures, so you're always 10-25 bb deep if you're not in shove or fold mode (which is much more simple to multi table during).So you can basically get in 40 games per hour two tabling. If you play the $30 level with a 1% ROI, that's still about $13 per hour. Then you have rakeback, which probably gives you about (assuming the rake at the $30 level is .75 cents or 2.5%, but I don't have FTP up) another $10 per hour (assuming 30% effective rakeback, which is on the lower side if you black card and/or iron man). So that's $23 per hour at the $30 level with only two tables up and a 1% ROI. That's not too shabby at all, after awhile the variance should numb you to standard beats (if it doesn't it's likely you're tilting), seeing yourself swing up and down 10+ buyins in as little as 10-15 minutes kind of makes it easier to take a beat or two in standard games, and super turbos just really lead to a healthier short term memory when it comes to variance (in my opinion).
I think realistic ROI for a good player to expect is 3-4% up to 50s (included). Thats at least what I think after 10K + sample and also what best players at these limits do I think (on big sample sizes, not short term hotruns of 7% on 3K games..).Also I think there is a difference between single and multitabling, and sample calculation by rypac of 40 games per hour average is unrealistic. That is 4 tabling nonstop.
Just reread your post and this part made me smile :)'after awhile the variance should numb you to standard beats'Kind of true, I guess pain treshold is changed :) You start tilting after more losses in a row than before.
I dont think you need 200 buyins, I have never had a bigger then 25 buyin downswing and that was at the beginning, since I have developed my current playing style, my biggest downswing was 18 buyins. Table selection and note taking is important. My FTP username is : toruk101
Also I think 200 BIs sound good as a BR. Bubi if your worst downswing in sup turbos has been 18 BIs I envy you and consider yourself lucky :) E.g I had a day when ran -36 BIs under EV and am sure Im not the only one or unluckiest. I dont see how is it possible to avoid 18 BI downswings considering such swings occur in this game.
I like all your post !!! bubi : your graph is really solid , i like it !
Is 40 games per hour really off by that much?What is your average game length? I've seen 2.5 minutes per game and I figured games launch pretty much instantly at the lower levels (and probably take less time).I suppose one variable that could change that is if people play tighter/less aggressive. But do the game waits and start times really amounts to more than 30 seconds between games at the lower levels?
My avg game length is 4,3min / game. That makes 14 games / hr / table. Someone may have less if he jams every hand preflop :)Games launch quickly up to 100s, that is not a problem, I should have been more specific what I meant was off in your calculation..I meant the logic of calculating ROI when multitabling. I tried multitabling and at 4 tables I did 40 games / hr - thats where I shoot the number from. I understand that maybe someone faster or with different style maybe does 40 on 3 tables e.g.I do not quite agree that sup turbos are easier to multitable since you are already short at the begining. I feel that since you are so short, every decision is for a big portion of your stack so is 'more important'. Moreover edges are smaller in sups. So once you start multitabling and you lose / decrease even small edge, it might well be your whole edge, or half of it, or be - EV even. I think cog some time ago mentioned this idea as well - how multitabling hurts at sups.So what I am not sure of is whether a good player with e.g. 3% ROI can 3-4 table at 1% ROI. As a suggestion for a guy new tu HU / superturbos to try this I think its not so good and he should 1 table.Also it is much more demanding psychically to play 40 games / hr vs 14. I think you would not be able to play the same amount of hours per week or month or whatever.
I agree with Mischi on the game lenght calculations, I think 40games/hour 2 tabling is way off. I think you nailed it with the reason Ryan: Lot more limping, passive play, less getting it in quick at lower levels makes for an average time way above 2,5 min imo. Games absolutely do insta-fill though, so time between games is probably even less than those 30 seconds. Overall I'm getting something like 13-15 games/table/hour as Mischi said.I also find multitabling harder than expected on these things. I think it's because since it's so critical to get good reads out of every play you see and adapt very quickly, the small things you miss while multitabling have a magnified importance. However I'm pretty bad at multitabling, I imagine a better player can definately get the right reads and make the necessary adjustments even playing more tables.Also, to contribute to the discussion above, I think at least 5% roi is for sure realistic at the lower levels. While it's true that the fast structure and low effective stacks reduce the instruments you can use for exploiting weaker players, at the lower levels people make such atrocious mistakes at those stack-depths that it's possible to get quite a big edge even with the unfavourable conditions.
Where does figure 2,5 min / game come from? Just curious who is playing at this speed.. That is 24 games / hour / table. I mean.. come on ;) I feel like even if you instaclicked every decision and jam every hand, Im not sure if you could put in that many games in.Nico, regarding 5% ROI, maybe you are right, maybe it is doable (e.g. 50s), hard to say. I dont think someone has big enough sample size so we can just guess based on our results so far. But could be possible. Also I dont think there should be a big difference of attainable ROI between different limits.
4-5% is possible but only 1 tabling. By table selecting maybe up to 6%.Both only when you are a very good player.PS: Keep in mind. ST don't made for players! ST are made for Fullt Tillt to getas much as possible money from fish ($20 reg speed fish is -20% ROI [-$4=$1 for FT $3 for winning player],$20 ST fish -7% ROI [ -$1.4=$0.45 for FT $0.75 for winning player]!!!
2.5 minutes per game is what I've had over 3k of these. Nothing lower than $200 though.I would imagine lower stakes would go faster for me as well, based on players probably spewing more often and games going faster with lower buyins in other structures.But I said 40 games per hour two tabling, which would mean 20 per table. Obviously if people have 4-5 minute games my figures aren't realistic, but I did mention 2.5 MPG in the original post and am wondering how/where it is so off for 40/hr 2 tabling.
2,5 mpg felt off, but if you say you ve done it on a 3k sample ok. Just curious, how many hands per game on average you had?Also playing 40 games / hour long term felt pretty hard to do while being still + ev, even for a good player (whether it be 3 or 4 tabling. I believe 2 tabling could have higher hourly than 1 tabling, but not sure about that, its hard to measure. For 40 games / hour you mentioned i assumed at least 3 tabling.)
Also im not sure limit matters when we measure number of games / hr. I think its basically the same player base for all limits with both good players and fish on all levels.
Hey Ryan,No offense meant towards your calculations. Of course, if 2,5 mpg is accurate your numbers are right on. My point was that I haven't seen that kind of avg time at the lower levels so far, and I think it might be a reasonable argument that the overall passiveness at those lower levels makes the games slower, even considering players might be more spewy. There's really a ton of limping at these levels.But it might be due to a whole bunch of other factors, for instance I take a lot of notes, so the time I take doing that might actually make my games substancially slower.
I haven't played STs much but if it is the same player base if we play 5s or 500s I would def need to start up in these :)
Not sure about 5s and 500s, but 20s - 100s definately. Not just same quality players, but the same players. Just check running games. I dont think this is the situation only for sup turbos though.I would not be surprised if it was the same even higher, someone who played all those limits might tell us ;) From what I talked to guys who did, they confirmed this.
I'll take a look at my HEM later today and get some hard figures for you guys.The playerbases cannot be the same from $5-500, at least nowhere near in terms of skill. There are a lot of regulars that I consider breakeven to losers against good regulars in the $200 and $300 level that would be a favorite on any $5-50 players in my mind (maybe a few $50 regs are patient enough to win in the long run vs these guys). There are some pretty good players around at this point in the supers, compared to early last summer. A lot of guys that aren't worth playing unless the rake were eliminated completely.
I'm a proplayer, been forced into playing these due to lack of interest in the regs. I have the benefit of pretty much only bad players sitting my games and still 4-5% seems like the max. I don't notice much difference in skill between 100-350 in these but the variance is brutal(more brutal than seems statistically possible but maybe I am calculating something wrong). I actually came here to post a thread on variance in these types of games.
NNNobodYYY (n0b0dy)
I play $2s and I'm on the Sharkscope leaderboard for <$2 HU SNGs in the top 10 when I last looked.My Avg game time is 2.8mins. If you wanted a perspective on the nano stakes :) (Also - I know it's -EV to be on the leaderboard at the $2s and I should move up - but it's small sample sale ~200 games >22%ROI and I only have $180, which might not really be enough to move to the $5s - but we shall see)
avd duration of games: 2.5 mins5k hyper turbo husngs on pokerstarsaverage buy in of $30ev roi 4.5%In my opinion if your playing these optimally and not passing up even the most marginal ev spots vs folding then you should be attaining around 2.5 min games.