Play with the variance calculator for those stakes. Outliers (from both sides) are very possible.I ran ten experiments at a 53% winrate for $200 super turbos and I got a range of 50k to 120k profit over 10k games as possible.So if you threw 40-50 of the best super turbo players in the world into a 10k sample and they all were equally skilled, you'd have some that did twice as better as others over that sample.Not to say that's happening with this specific person, but just an example of how outliers are real, even over huge samples.This also doesn't take into account game selection, or even variance of opponents (again, picture 40 equally skilled players sitting the lobbies for a huge sample, it's only natural that some will get softer opponents than others). There's also tilt and a lot of other factors that go into this.All in all, we can only be sure he's one hell of a super turbo player.
So the simulation gives a range of between 2,46% and 5,9% ROI for a 4,18% true ROI. Certainly shows how ridiculous variance can be over that huge of a sample.Also hints that he's got a true ROI at least a bit over 4,2%. Super impressive indeed, highest respect for him.It'd be cool to see him make a vid :)
That Kind of variance is scary. You could be a break even or -1 ROI player and run above EV for a year never knowing that the following year you would give a large portion of it back. I was thinking about switching primarily to super turbos but this is giving me second thoughts. I have already contacted Mers about training. Cog do you have any free time for coaching? Side Note*Cog you live bali currently? I just made the move to Costa Rica, I'm playing poker out of a backpacker town called Tamarindo. Everyone that passes through here tells me nothing about great things about Bali. I am seriously considering making the move in 6 months to a year after I have fully digested the spanish language here. Would you recommend it to a fellow poker player?
"Cog do you have any free time for coaching? Side Note* Cog you live bali currently? I just made the move to Costa Rica, I'm playing poker out of a backpacker town called Tamarindo. Everyone that passes through here tells me nothing about great things about Bali. I am seriously considering making the move in 6 months to a year after I have fully digested the spanish language here. Would you recommend it to a fellow poker player?"Yup I'm available for coaching. You can contact me on skype (cogdissonance1) if you're keen.Bali is fantastic, but one of the drawbacks is that the internet can be a bit dodgy. If you were to move here for a few months then I'd definitely recommend investing in satelite internet which costs about $600 to set up. I'd also have a backup, such as a usb modem. Then you have a stable connection from which you can grind.But living here is fantastic, highly recommended.
Nico, are you taking my simulation results for your ROI range?If so, my sample is too limited, I only ran the simulation ten times. There are probably at least 25 or 30 super turbo players that are hard to decipher who is better than who (though guys like Hosni and Serkules appear to be better than some of the other regulars, their stats may be better than Mers or h2olga now and I'd take Mers or h2olga over anybody I've seen without a second thought. I would also imagine a guy like 16color can't be worse than some of the other super regs, he's really good).So running the simulator for 4.2% ROI would make sense, but probably closer to 30-40 times. We also have to factor in tilt, game selection and opponent variance. I'm not sure how to factor that in, some of the forum math guys here might know and can share?
Play with the variance calculator for those stakes. Outliers (from both sides) are very possible.I ran ten experiments at a 53% winrate for $200 super turbos and I got a range of 50k to 120k profit over 10k games as possible.So if you threw 40-50 of the best super turbo players in the world into a 10k sample and they all were equally skilled, you'd have some that did twice as better as others over that sample.Not to say that's happening with this specific person, but just an example of how outliers are real, even over huge samples.This also doesn't take into account game selection, or even variance of opponents (again, picture 40 equally skilled players sitting the lobbies for a huge sample, it's only natural that some will get softer opponents than others). There's also tilt and a lot of other factors that go into this.All in all, we can only be sure he's one hell of a super turbo player.
Is that 53% winrate = 4,18% ROI, or did you mean 3% ROI?
53% winrate, sorry. Editing now.
Serkules came to Bali for a month and I watched him play quite a bit. He has very good judgement and never seems to play his hands the same way twice!
Skype/AIM- cogdissonance1
So the simulation gives a range of between 2,46% and 5,9% ROI for a 4,18% true ROI. Certainly shows how ridiculous variance can be over that huge of a sample.Also hints that he's got a true ROI at least a bit over 4,2%. Super impressive indeed, highest respect for him.It'd be cool to see him make a vid :)
That Kind of variance is scary. You could be a break even or -1 ROI player and run above EV for a year never knowing that the following year you would give a large portion of it back. I was thinking about switching primarily to super turbos but this is giving me second thoughts. I have already contacted Mers about training. Cog do you have any free time for coaching? Side Note*Cog you live bali currently? I just made the move to Costa Rica, I'm playing poker out of a backpacker town called Tamarindo. Everyone that passes through here tells me nothing about great things about Bali. I am seriously considering making the move in 6 months to a year after I have fully digested the spanish language here. Would you recommend it to a fellow poker player?
"Cog do you have any free time for coaching? Side Note* Cog you live bali currently? I just made the move to Costa Rica, I'm playing poker out of a backpacker town called Tamarindo. Everyone that passes through here tells me nothing about great things about Bali. I am seriously considering making the move in 6 months to a year after I have fully digested the spanish language here. Would you recommend it to a fellow poker player?"Yup I'm available for coaching. You can contact me on skype (cogdissonance1) if you're keen.Bali is fantastic, but one of the drawbacks is that the internet can be a bit dodgy. If you were to move here for a few months then I'd definitely recommend investing in satelite internet which costs about $600 to set up. I'd also have a backup, such as a usb modem. Then you have a stable connection from which you can grind.But living here is fantastic, highly recommended.
Skype/AIM- cogdissonance1
Nico, are you taking my simulation results for your ROI range?If so, my sample is too limited, I only ran the simulation ten times. There are probably at least 25 or 30 super turbo players that are hard to decipher who is better than who (though guys like Hosni and Serkules appear to be better than some of the other regulars, their stats may be better than Mers or h2olga now and I'd take Mers or h2olga over anybody I've seen without a second thought. I would also imagine a guy like 16color can't be worse than some of the other super regs, he's really good).So running the simulator for 4.2% ROI would make sense, but probably closer to 30-40 times. We also have to factor in tilt, game selection and opponent variance. I'm not sure how to factor that in, some of the forum math guys here might know and can share?