Hi All, Regarding the following hand, I got the bulk of my chips in with what was the nuts at the time, and although the guy had a few outs to get to a boat, I was still 75/25 to win before the river. Hold'em Manager shows that hand as -$2.27 EV (this was a $6.25 turbo PS HUSNG), and I can't for the life of me understand how that all-in was -EV. Admittedly, I've never fully understood how EV is calculated, but it seems to me that my play in this hand was very optimal, and should've been +EV. Anyone who can help me undertsand this is certainly appreciated. ThanksNo Limit Holdem Tournament
2 Players
Hand converted by http://husng.com/converter
$6.00+$0.25
SB dunisnx 1750
BB Hero 1250
Effective Stacks: 63bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB with c7 sT
dunisnx raises to 60, Hero calls 40
Flop (120, 2 players)
c8 d9 c4
Hero checks, dunisnx bets 60, Hero raises to 160, dunisnx calls 100
Turn (440, 2 players)
h6
Hero bets 250, dunisnx raises to 560, Hero goes all-in 1030, dunisnx calls 470
River (2500, 2 players)
cA
Final Pot: 2500
dunisnx shows
h9 c9
Hero shows
c7 sT
Hero wins 2500 ( won +1250 )
dunisnx lost -1250
You are playing for about 83% of chips (2500/3000) which is about $10 and you should expect to win 75% of those chips ( or $7.5) but you won 100% of those chips. So you won $2.xx more than your EV. Your play was profitable (+EV ) you just made a little bit more profit than you expect to make (EV) in the long term.
So if I would've lost the hand, would my HEM EV have been positive? To reflect that even though I lost that hand, I expect to win that type of hand more often long term?
The EV curve of HEM is not very informative what it comes how lucky/unlucky you have been. For example, lets assume you play FT super turbos and and you are leading the game 750-250, you go al in with AA, villain calls with KQ and you lose. After that the game is 500-500. Ib the next hand you go all in with QQ and villain calls with KK and wins the game. Since the game did not end when the villain sucked out in AA vs. KQ hand, HEM forgets the whole episode. If you want to know really how lucky/unlucky you have been, some more sophisticated calculation methods would be needed than HEMs luck adjusted winnings curve.
Joe, yes you expect to win $7.5 more than $0, so your EV graph will go up by that.