this is a 4player shootout, and this is the 7th hand of the 2nd match. i failed to watch the other table so no solid reads. appears to be loose/aggressive, he has 3-bet me three times in those hands. we haven't seen a showdown yet and this is the 1st time he has made an over bet.i'm really lost against players like this. what would you do here with nut flush draw, backdoor straight and over card?i'm wondering if i should have lead this flop also? was planning to check/raise but he had other plans.No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players$5.00+$0.25 Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter SBi_shot_a_boy1580 BBHero4420 Effective Stacks: 40bb Blinds 20/40 Pre-Flop (60, 2 players) Hero is BB i_shot_a_boy raises to 120, Hero calls 80 Flop (240, 2 players) Hero checks, i_shot_a_boy goes all-in 1460.....
I would snap call this - we have great equity vs his whole range and he could possibly be shoving with worse draws or whatever. Vs all 9x you have 42% equity and I would expect his shoving range to be wider than that. Add in some draws and random crap and you should be break even/ahead - not to mention the size of the pot on the flop.
fist pump call
guess i played this one wrong then. i do think i have better then 50% equity against his range but didn't want to give up my comfortable chip lead. :(
We need ≈46% equity against his range, to make this call +cEV.If we are behind on the flop, our odds of improving is ≈46%. Our 9 flush draw outs gives us ≈35%. If we count our A outs we end on ≈ 45% + our backdoor straight out ≈46%. We are not accounting for any blocking outs he might have.In game I'm probably always calling this but I think it is closer then it looks. If he has some air or uncompleted draws in his range, it is a call, but otherwise it is a fold. Considering the nature of his play, I think we need to call here.
If you think you have over 50%, this should really be a call given chips in the pot.The one major thing to really look into is the mentality of "I don't want to give up a lead." You'll lose more games in the long run playing tighter than you should and passing up on good spots if you think this way than if you just treat each situation by the effective stack (the only difference is how your opponent approaches being behind 3-1 at 40bb and ahead 3-1 at 40bb, otherwise they should be the same to you).Getting out of that fallacy/mental leak is really important and can really break down some restrictions on your thought process.As for the hand, I would guess this opponent type has the chance to have a weaker than estimated range than the average opponent and I think it would make this a correct call (and probably 50% or higher equity). I didn't play around with stove, but I assume our opponent is somewhat probable to shove some draws that we destroy here and that should outweigh some of the strongest hands he'll have. That leaves the standard pairs he'll show up with most of the time, of which we should be in the 45-47% range against. That should make this at or near 50% and thus a call.If somebody wants to go through some sample ranges with poker stove it would be a good opportunity to pretty much solve the situation.