Villain is a slightly winning reg that's been playing pretty taggy to this point. No other reads except that villian hasn't really shown any tendancies to indicate he has a lot of bluffy plays. Good fold? Or is the price too good to resist?No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter BTNHero1355 BBPlayer21645 Effective Stacks: 27bb Blinds 25/50 Pre-Flop (75, 2 players) Hero is BTN Hero raises to 100, Player2 calls 50 Flop (200, 2 players) Player2 checks, Hero bets 130, Player2 calls 130 Turn (460, 2 players) Player2 bets 300, Hero calls 300 River (1060, 2 players) Player2 bets 1115, Hero folds Final Pot: 2175 Player2 wins 2175 ( won +530 ) Hero lost -530
at 25/50 you should have a ton more reads other than "seems taggy" "and doesn't have a lot of bluffy plays". You should know how he plays vs. ur cbets and what he thinks your cbetting with. Also you should know if he is capable of leading draws, betting a K on turn for protection because he has seen you check back turns, or if he is can lead a J here instead of x/raising or x/calling. Readless im calling turn and river.
Well, I wouldn't say I'm readless. I would say that he's been pretty straight forward, and not too tricky. Based on that I'd say that he's probably donking with either a J or 22? I'd think it unlikely this player is doing this with air to rep the Jack+. In any case, this is the first time I've seen this player donk out on the turn like this.
I think it's a fold.Can't really see many hands we beat. It is unlikely he'd play a Kx this way (what hands of ours is he getting value from?), the river completes Q10, the only hand we can beat is a turned flush draw that is bluffing the river or an overplayed K. Sure we are ahead occasionally, but not often enough imo. Looks a lot like Jx to me. Unless you think he is capable of overplaying Kx in this spot I'd fold.
That's my opinion, and as you said there probably aren't many bluffs from that kind of a player..I would fold.......or not 'cuz I don't like to fold ;p
I'm folding because it's hard for him to have air in his range especially with this river. What hand can he check/call on the flop and have no pair on by the river?