Hey all,Just played a few games with a player at the $10's on Full Tilt, and I ran into a hell of a spot in our third game. ##########################################FullTilt Poker Game 29908965329 / Tournament Table 1 - 19:32:13 ET - 2011/04/14 Blinds : 15/30 ########################################## hapak Q A Initial Pot: 45 hapak raises to 60 Villain calls 30 ### FLOP ### 8 7 4 Pot: 120 Villain checks hapak bets 70 Villain calls 70 ### TURN ### Q Pot: 260 Villain bets 120 hapak calls 120 ### RIVER ### 6 Pot: 500 Villain is All in hapak says : >_< hapak calls 860I have a couple of reads on him thusfar. - I highly doubt Villain hit a flush - Villain checked back a low flush (24ss) earlier in the match, which reduces the possibility that Villain hit hearts on the turn. - Villain is probably not on complete air - his bluffing lines often involve donking on the flop, however, I have never seen Villain float my cbet and donk on the Turn up to this point in the third match. - The only other time I've seen Villain use a smaller bet sizing was in a 3bet pot with JJ on an Ace-High flop. He donkbet under half-pot, checked the turn, and bet 20% of the pot on the river after I checked back (I paid him off with a pair of Tens). - I have no idea WTF to make of the river shove - I haven't seen anything remotely similar in any hand so far. Questions:Is this a good spot to bluffcatch? Unless his hand was something like 85, 75, Q5, I felt he played draws too passively in other spots to show up with many unpaired 5s. I was more worried about random two-pair hands here. I also assume that raising the turn here would have been a much better play and avoided all these problems... =/
I think that especially at this level that a river overshove is for value a reasonable majority of the time regardless of previous action and considering pot odds this is a pretty easy fold. In this spot I think most often he has a straight at worst and more likely a flush and is hoping you hit a straight OTR or have 2 pair.
Definitely fold. Top pair top kicker is a good hand, but much less so on a four-to-a-straight board, but more importantly, what hands can he have that check/call this flop and are bluffing on the river?