Assuming a healthy >50% opening range, it decreases the amount of hands where flatting is the best option, for sure. We're 3bet jamming (or 3bet bluffing if deeper) more hands like J3s, T5s, etc. Some JTs type hands will be better to jam as well, it just depends on the exact stack depth, opening frequency, and to a lesser extent, calling frequency.The most important thing, and this is going to sound a little obvious but bear with me, is to really hone in on opening range and gameflow against the best regs. The reason why a lot of great players are starting to use the 2.25x is because it messes with people's math/intuition and they start jamming too wide or not wide enough. What these guys often do is use this size and then mess with their opening range and cause you to make large mistakes when you're still jamming wide over, or not wide enough.
i liked seeing the charts for ax hands that said reshoving is likely the most +ev play if our opponent is raising x % at different stack depths. i think a good idea for an article would be a reshoving article with lots of those calcs for dfferent hands.
It's a little bit more difficult with different hands, because calling range is so significant (It doesn't matter as much when we have A3). I'll give it a shot, though.
Full Tilt 10-12bb from sb: 3,809 hands, 54.5 steal, 82.9 PFR/VPIP Ratio,65.7 VPIP, 3.98 ev bb/100Lock 10-12bb from sb: 3,859 hands, 60.5 steal, 87.9 PFR/VPIP Ratio, 69.4 VPIP, -1.56 ev bb/100Do you take anything from this or do you think it's too small of a sample? If too small of a sample how big of a sample would you want to see before it's significant? Also, you said before that after 100-150 games against 1 player the #s can sometimes tell you if you have a significant edge. Obviously reads factor in as well but how high of an ev bb/100 would you want to see vs 1 player after 100 and 150 games to be pretty sure you had an edge? Thanks
I do think you can take better advantage of the limp at that stack depth, but it could be noise. It's pretty significant, though.Honestly, I've almost always judged my "edge" or lack there of against a player based on how many plays I feel he's butchered or how many frequencies seem really out of whack, rather than looking too much at HEM EV, which can be heavily influenced by coolers/noise over small samples. That said, the info is still useful. I don't think I've ever looked at it like "ok, I'm +xbb/100, I'm pretty sure I have an edge", just, "ok, I think this guy sucks, now time to check my EV".
16-20bb if somebody is 3bet shoving a healthy % (say 30%+) but still folding their bb to a steal more than 50% of the time would you prefer to limp or raise your middling stuff in general?
I don't know how useful my lifetime frequencies are, because I used to play a very different style."16-20bb if somebody is 3bet shoving a healthy % (say 30%+) but still folding their bb to a steal more than 50% of the time would you prefer to limp or raise your middling stuff in general?"Depends how low VPIP and aggression vs limps and whether we have a hand that can limp/call a 3x. In general though still limping if it's close to 50% more likely to raise if it's <45%.
I was definitely only considering hands that can call a 3x."Depends how low VPIP and aggression vs limps and whether we have a hand that can limp/call a 3x. In general though still limping if it's close to 50% more likely to raise if it's <45%."If their bb VIP is less than 45% that should be more of an argument for limping because you instantly win the pot with a raise less often. I assume you mean still limping if its close to 50% more likely to raise if it's >55%. Right?
I'll post my hud stats in those spots & you can let me know what you think.10-12bb:fold bb to steal: 68.93bet: 13.912-15bb:fold bb to steal: 62.63bet: 24.5I know I've been missing some 3bets recently but my FTP #s are more of the same. My ev bb/100 is still good at these stack sizes & I know it's an awkward stack size because we can't flat as much & people are often inducing a lot. However, in theory I was thinking the fold bb to steal # should be slightly lower or slightly higher than 50. If we have their correct opening frequencies down we should be able to 3bet more than 50% or slightly less than 50% at these stacks. I guess maybe the fact that I tend to 3bet on the nittier side w/ small sample sizes since people tend to induce a lot at these stacks sways the fold bb to stealActually, my ev bb/100 from the bb at 10-15bb is 4.13 but it's 5.98 at 12-15 & only 0.18 ev b/100 at 10-12bb, which makes sense because of the extra folding I'm doing at 10-12bb. My fold bb to steal is FAR less at other stack sizes.
Also, 15-25bb:VPIP: 74.5steal: 67.7PFR/VPIP Ratio: 90.9vs 3bet call %: 26.24bet %: 4.8I'm not sure why the 4bet % is so low as my standard is to 4bet 22+,A8+, & maybe A7s at these stacks & against some players I'm 4betting much wider. Maybe it's because I'm flatting the weaker aces vs min 3bets & often 2x 3bets.The reason I'm asking this is because my ev bb/100 is only 1.31 at these stacks, with my over ev bb/100 being 6.35. 15-25bb from the sb should probably have a higher ev bb/100 than my overall ev bb/100. For comparison, my ev bb/100 from the bb is 8.64. I do think I play very well from the bb at these stack sizes but still think that my sb ev bb/100 should be higher.On FTP I was 7.20 ev bb/100 from the SB 15-25bb with the following #s:VPIP: 69.9steal: 65.3PFR/VPIP Ratio: 93.5vs 3bet call: 22.34bet: 4.5I find a big discrepancy between Lock & FTP on my all in equity from the sb 15-25bb:Lock:Pre: 50.5Flop: 50.4Turn: 45.7FTP:Pre: 52.6Flop: 55.9Turn: 50.7This could be tied to the fact that I'm playing more hands on Lock, particularly in 3bet pots, so my starting hand value is weaker. It should also be noted that I don't generally wait for lobbies on Lock and sit most regs, whereas on FTP I was mostly bum hunting.Sample sizes:Merge: 6,982 gamesFTP: 4,689 gamesLet me know if you think there's anything to take out of this or if you think it's more likely that another factor, like coolers, is more likely effecting the #s. Thanks
"If their bb VPIP is less than 45% that should be more of an argument for limping because you instantly win the pot with a raise less often. I assume you mean still limping if its close to 50% more likely to raise if it's >55%. Right?"I'm confused. A low BB VPIP means you're getting more preflop folds. Which is good. Which means raising is better.
"I'm confused. A low BB VPIP means you're getting more preflop folds. Which is good. Which means raising is better."Ahhh...I was talking about fold bb to steal, so obv the higher the better. Ya BB VIP would be opposite.
"10-12bb: fold bb to steal: 68.9 3bet: 13.9"I'm torn about whether this is a problem or not. Obviously, you know that you'd get ripped apart by aggressive regulars without increasing these frequencies, but you're absolutely right that many people's minraising ranges, especially 10bb deep, can be quite strong. What's making me think it might be OK is 10bb messing with the numbers, but it still seems pretty damn tight.12bb deep, give me a folding range to a minraise (don't worry about jam or call). All we know is that he's raised one of two buttons so far.
I don't find anything particularly damning in the 15-25bb small blind numbers. The difference is likely in other factors than just the base frequencies.
What's your flatting range vs a player stealing 7% 20-30bb? Lol. I play this guy on Merge who seriously opens 6.6% from the btn over 479 hands. It's just so lol tight I feel like we should be folding a lot our Ax even but am not sure how wide to call with hands that "flop well."At 12-15bb he gets all hyper aggro & starts stealing w/ 21% so he'll have a lot of junk hands like K7s & T9s in his range. :)What would you flat vs that range at those stack depths?
"12bb deep, give me a folding range to a minraise (don't worry about jam or call). All we know is that he's raised one of two buttons so far."In game I would obv have more reads than that as I wouldn't be sleeping til we get to 12bb effective but if the only read I have is that he raised 1 of 2 buttons I'd probably push 22+,A2+,K9+,K7s+,QJ,QTs+,JTs & flat K8o,K6s,Q9o-QTo,Q8s,J9o-JTo,T9o,98s. I'm guessing that's a fold bb to steal of somewhere around 70%.
"What's your flatting range vs a player stealing 7% 20-30bb? Lol. I play this guy on Merge who seriously opens 6.6% from the btn over 479 hands. It's just so lol tight I feel like we should be folding a lot our Ax even but am not sure how wide to call with hands that "flop well."Yeah fold weak Ax. Fold JTo. You can call suited no-gappers for the implied odds. lol.You should probably know that he's not trapping with AA/KK with limps though. It changes if he's just limping almost everything but then picks random hands to raise.At 12-15bb he gets all hyper aggro & starts stealing w/ 21% so he'll have a lot of junk hands like K7s & T9s in his range. :) What would you flat vs that range at those stack depths?"Flatting basically nothing here I think.
"22+,A2+,K9+,K7s+,QJ,QTs+,JTs & flat K8o,K6s,Q9o-QTo,Q8s,J9o-JTo,T9o,98s. I'm guessing that's a fold bb to steal of somewhere around 70%."I think it's too tight. T8s, 87s, 97s definitely should definitely be played, K7o, 76s, 86s, and otheres I'd argue for as well.
How high of a check/raise percentage would you want to see before you start 4betting hands like naked flush draws and how does this change if you're 30bb, 25bb or 20bb deep?
Some good HUSNG players prefer making a smaller cbet on non connected Ax boards, like 75 into 200 or 150 into 400. I certainly agree that's all that needed. However, Ax boards can also be good boards to 3 barrel. If we're 30bb HU in a Lock ST at 25/50 a 75 flop bet sets up a 3 barrel pretty poorly, whereas if we bet half pot or more or river shove should be right around the size of the pot. Do you think that's enough of a reason to just make it half pot or would you still make it smaller?
First of all, nice to meet you here and thank you for this thread, which helped me so much when I first came here in Aug. For some personal reasons, I will skip fasttrack for this month and will definitely come back in the future. This is such a valuable program. We have a similar background of 6max super turbo experience. Those preflop skills were all I have for poker, instead you play far far better than me in postflops. But I think you still might be interested in this one.For your reference, mine for PS 25bb deep hyper HUSNGs is:20-25bb(27.6k hands): SB 15.00 BB -5.3515-20bb(12.5k): 4.74 5.6010-15bb(16.0k): 9.43 4.530-10bb (12.2k): 5.06 2.52For ftp 6max ST HU situations (when I suck at HU much more than now): I also have 237k HU hands (3.29 for SB and 4.08 for BB ev bb/100), but most of them are <12bb as you know.
What are your thoughts on having a 2.25xing range in STs & constantly adjusting it vs different counter adjustments to induce your opponents to make bigger mistakes? If you like the idea, what kind of a 2.25x range would you start with as a standard?
What % would you want your opponent to be 2 barreling before you consider a line like check/call flop, check/raise turn all in (ST) w/ something like a naked flush draw?
How wide are you raising a limp readless? How does this change if they defend liberally vs cbets or fold vs too many cbets?99% of the time that someone suggests forgoing a huge short term edge to protect a more profitable long term edge, i think they are wrong and fishbowlzzzz. raising limps is one aspect that i actually think this can be very true though, and something that the huge majority of regs don't consider and cost themselves a lot of EV over the long term.when villains limp vs us, we should love it. it's giving a bunch of hands in our range free equity to see a flop that would have otherwise folded to a pfr. villain gives up initiative, and we are able to lead flops with a lot of fold equity/barreling opportunities on lots of different boards. in most cases, all villain has to do to have an overall positive expectation from his sb is to raise us with a wide range preflop (barring when they raise way too wide short and we can jam really wide obv, and stuff like that). so basically, when villain is limping a wide range vs us...it's going to be pretty hard for us to have a better expectation from our bb overall. that is not something that we want to go away.when we raise limps wide (40%+), we discourage villain from limping a wide range. sure, if we know we have a bunch of fold equity preflop then that is a huge short term edge (or cbet fold equity), but my argument is that villains will adjust very quickly in response to this - starting to raise their sb more, or limp/calling more and folding less postflop. raising too wide over limps overexploits our edge, and usually guarantees that our bb expectation will diminish pretty quickly. it doesn't take a thinking player to adjust to us raising a lot...it's pretty common sense imo.students often respond, "but Hokie, we only play most of our opponents for just a small handful of games...do we really care about protecting our edge over the longterm then?" my answer is that over a handful of games, its pretty damn rare that you actually establish enough reads to know that villain is really limp/folding a super-exploitable amount, or folding to cbets a ton. raising as a bluff vs most people to see if they will limp/fold is usually unnecessary or just -ev against an undefined range, and we should just check back and take our free equity. so i'd really avoid overexploiting this edge and continue letting villain do us the biggest favor he can: maximizing our expectation from the bb.i'm usually raising limps with a wide value range initially, probably about 30-35% of starting hands T9o+ basically. wide value bc the average villain limps too wide, if we include bluffs in our raising rang here readless it increases our frequency too much.if i find that villains are limp/folding a decent, but not huge amount (like 60-75%), i will change my range within the same frequency (30-35%) and just raise less overall value than before, but add some reasonably playable air as bluffs to my range.i'll gradually increase the amount of bluffs in my range, and decrease value from there as i find villain has a higher and higher fold % when i raise his limp, but still within about the same frequency.i've definitely had opponents before who folded almost 100% to limps, so i just raised literally the bottom 35% of hand combos and checked back everything else. why raise AK over a limp when you have 100% fold equity? our checkback range is massively strengthened by eliminating the bottom of it. can't really have a bigger oop edge on someone than that ... and by not overexploiting your edge you can sustain it for a longer time.just remember, if ur playing a thinking player at all and u showdown AK limped but ur raising 35% of his limps ... alarm bells could easily go off for him. if i feel im playing someone who could at least htink on this level, i'd include those types of hands in my limp raising range still.anyways, just to make sure i fully answer your question.<13 stx i'm just jamming any AX/22-99/K5o+/KXs+/QXs+/some low suited connectors (still 30-35%ish) over a limp semi-readless. obv raising some of the value hands in that range to a non-allin size.long post, thought about this a tonnn. i think this is another thought process of mine that is pretty unconventional. what do you guys think?
How high of a check/raise percentage would you want to see before you start 4betting hands like naked flush draws and how does this change if you're 30bb, 25bb or 20bb deep?i think you def realize you can't use your HEM c/r stat as a blanket assessment of c/r frequency on all board textures, but i'll just mention it for others. people who c/r bluff tend to c/r bluff dry boards with a ton more frequency, and can have far less total value combos to balance a high frequency with as compared to a wet board.to figure this out very specifically, you'd just have to do some ev calcs with different ranges/frequencies to get a feel for it (and at different stack sizes).if you want to do an ev calc:first stove your hand vs villain's 4bet shove calling range (try for a rough estimate)example:1300 starting eff stx bb 50, we raise 7h 3h pre to t100 and villain callsflop is Qh 6h 2c, we cbet t100 and vilain c/r to t300step 1) estimate villain's c/r frequency and the fold equity we have when we jam over it. lets say it's 60% for this example.step 2) estimate villains 4bet shove calling range, plug that range into stove and figure out your equity vs that range ... lets say we are 32% vs villains caling range here.the math:60% of the time we win the pot and are winning t400 from the start of the hand. 40% of the time we get called for all the chips, and have 32% equity. all the chips are 2600. 2600 * .32 = 832. that's like losing 1300 - 832 = t468. that's like losing t468 from the start of the hand.60% of the time we win 400. 40% of the time we lose. (0.6)(400) + (0.4)(-468) = 240 - 187.2 = 52.8 cEV.So, on average, we win 52.8 chips by 4bet shoving the flop. Alternatively, we lose 200 chips by folding to the c/r. So 4bet shoving is far greater than folding. Calculating for flatting is difficult without knowing villain's turn tendancies (im not even sure how to do it anyways), but we aren't passing up a +52.8 cEV flop edge ever anyways.So that's the math behind it, and you can mess with that to develop a better intuitive understanding of what fold equity and equity vs villain's range you need at different stack depths. We just want 4betting to be better than folding, so at short eff stx if we have correct fe we're obv jamming. At deeper stacks of 25-30bb, depending on the size of villain's c/r and the frequencies/equity you estimate, flatting can definitely have better expectation than jamming since we will likely have remaining stack depth in some cases to correctly flat a turn barrel.I hope that answers your question reasonably well. I'm basically saying, it depends a ton and having an intuitive understanding of this stuff is really important.
remember to polarize your cbetting range vs a wide-c/r as well. polarized = hands that continue vs a c/r well and hands that easily fold to a c/r. your checkback range includes hands that have showdown value and can call turn/river vs leads on certain runouts, but dont fair well enough vs c/r range.so depending on how wide villain's c/r frequency is, and how much fold equity we have when jamming over it - some hands can be easy cbet/3bet vs a v high c/r % on X board texture, while the same hands can by good to check back vs a lower (but still wide...just not wide enough) c/r % on the same board texture.you definitely need a sample size, or get to some showdowns to get a feel for villain's actual c/r range on different boards. so my default would be quick to polarize my checkback range first, instead of making dangerous assumptions about villain's c/r frequency. polarizing your cbet range with the right hands is never going to be -ev, but possibly not maxEV.
Some good HUSNG players prefer making a smaller cbet on non connected Ax boards, like 75 into 200 or 150 into 400. I certainly agree that's all that needed. However, Ax boards can also be good boards to 3 barrel. If we're 30bb HU in a Lock ST at 25/50 a 75 flop bet sets up a 3 barrel pretty poorly, whereas if we bet half pot or more or river shove should be right around the size of the pot. Do you think that's enough of a reason to just make it half pot or would you still make it smaller?it's hard for villain to have many hands that can call a cbet on a dry AXX in a hyper. most villain's will call t75 with a wider range than t100 on this texture. this makes barreling for us even better, since we should have more fold equity. also, we should be playing our value with a t75 cbet as well (or even a checkback vs some), and then smaller barrel sizings on turn/river than we do with our bluffs (very exploitable obv) - this just shows good of a line i think t75 + 50% turn barrel + 80%-slight overbet river barrel is going to be as a bluff.be careful that when you "setup stacks for a river jam" you are still considering how your sizings are effecting ranges, and how alternatives might fair better/worse.this is still kind of a leak of mine when i'm not on my A game.
What are your EV bb/100 #s at the following stack sizes from the SB & BB seperately?20-30bb:16-20bb:10-15bb:<10bb:just started with PT3 3 weeks ago, let me get back to you about it in a month or two. maybe ask Mers if you haven't already.
What % would you want your opponent to be 2 barreling before you consider a line like check/call flop, check/raise turn all in (ST) w/ something like a naked flush draw?i would answer this really similarly to the EV Calc a few posts above. the math is exactly the same. just keep in mind when you are looking at your HEM turn barrel stat:turn barreling ranges are highly impacted by SB pfr and flop cbet %. **for sake of argument lets assume both villains cbet/2 barrel all board textures with same frequency (this is almost never the case)Villain A: raises 85% pre, cbets 85%, 2 barrels 60%.Villain B: raises 65% pre, cbets 65%, 2 barrels 60%I think it's pretty obvious that villain A has a ton more bluffs (and hands that will fold to a check/shove) than Villain B. Villain B's 65% pfr weights his overall range to hands that hit boards well, his cbet range typically indicates that it will be pretty value/equity heavy (if it's polarized its more complicated/different), so he's going to show up on the turn with a ton more decent hands, even though his 2 barrel % is the same as Villain A's.and i know u know this, but to others: the 60% turn cbet range is 60% of the villain's flop cbet range. not just 60% total. hope that makes sense, feel like i'm not explaining that well?
What are your thoughts on having a 2.25xing range in STs & constantly adjusting it vs different counter adjustments to induce your opponents to make bigger mistakes? If you like the idea, what kind of a 2.25x range would you start with as a standard?I think it's great, as long as it's necessary. The great thing about 2.25xing is that it makes your opponent uncomfortable, and thus leads to him making more mistake. Just remember, you don't need to make someone uncomfortable who was never comfortable to begin with! Most of our opponents we already have a very good edge on in position and they are already uncomfortable vs us and making a bunch of dumb mistakes. Why decrease the stack:pot ratio for postflop play (by increasing our preflop size)? Shorter stack:pot ratio almost always = lower winrate = higher variance.Some common misconceptions my students who have tried this have had:1) When your opponent folds more out of position, some of the % that he folds he is folding correctly! You are risking more to win his bb, so he doesn't have to defend with as wide of a range. Of course plenty of players will still fold too much, but when u get villain to fold his K5o and 96o...you didn't accomplish anything, so stop patting yourself on the back!2) If you are mr/calling the same frequency that you would when you 2x at 21bb stx, villain can correctly jam a slightly wider range than vs the 2x with more value in fold equity. Of course plenty of players will 3bet shove too much or too little, but when u get villain to jam his K2s and he was only jamming down to K5s vs a 2x...you didn't accomplish anything! (same applies to non-ai 3bet bluff fold equity) So basically, I think it's overused a lot of the time, but can be great versus good opponents who are very comfortable with the standard sizings and postflop play with standard stack sizes.So if you do think it's necessary/more profitable than 2x'ing:I would either:A) do it as my standard down to 20ish bb stx, and decrease my pfr slightly to account for the things I listed above. See how villain adjusts, if he's folding too much increase pfr. If he's jamming too much, widen calling range and probably limp to limp/call some.B) do it with a balanced range:hands that can bet/3bet, but don't fair too well when flatted oop (AK/AQ/66/77 type stuff); polarized with the weaker end of your pfr that folds to 3bets and doesn't play very well oop when flatted (K2o, Q5o, T2s type stuff). just remember that each off suit trash combo is 12 combos and a suited combo is 4, so adding a lot of offsuit trash to this range can imbalance it quite a bit if ur not careful (obv we can be imbalanced correctly for diff reasons). so this range would probably be like 20-25% of your total pfr range if you are raising 70% or so i'd guess.
I know we somewhat talked about this on skype the other week but I never really asked for your thoughts.When thinking of maximizing hourly rate, is there a certain % you want your lowest buy-in to be when comparing it to your highest buy-in running?When I have a $1K running I don't register lower than $500. When I have a $500 running I don't generally register lower than $250. While I'm pretty damn sure it's -EV to register for a $150 with a $1K running, I could possibly be convinced otherwise with a $500 running, although I don't currently register for $150s w/ a $500 running.Without $500s & $1Ks running I'll sometimes register all the way down to $90, depending on how the action is. $500+ action is so hit and miss that I'd rather not just sit only in high stakes lobbies waiting if nothing is running. Once I get games running in the $250-$90 range the difference between my highest buy-in running & lowest buy-in I register for varies. If it's later in the week where my mind is warmed up better I'm usually willing to accept a wider gap between highest buy-in & lowest buy-in than earlier in the week, especially considering I'm playing less tables earlier in the week. Thanks for that article on warming up the mind throughout the week. I think that has helped a lot. I used to just 4-6 table pretty much all week.The worst is when I get a few $90-$250 running & a $1K pops off, or I sit a reg in a $90 & then instantly get sat in a $1K. This is bound to happen though and I think it's still worth registering for lower buy-ins with no $500/$1Ks running, although I could be convinced on where the optimal cutoff is (ex. higher than $90).Thoughts?
cross-post that above question to the Mers thread. you've considered that a lot more than i ever have tbh. i'm interested tho.i try to avoid playing anything that is >2 buyin levels apart, but it will happen on occasion. when 5ks ran on Merge, i was sitting 180 ST - 5k turbo at times lol. i actually had a 5k open when i had a 220 running. i had a massive fish in 220, but obv declined after it ended and focused on the 5k. i just dont think the EV gained in-game from focusing on the higher stakes games, outweighs the $/hr gained from getting in more games/hour by playing more lobbies - as long as you are declining lower stakes games when higher stakes games run.i think with action being reasonable at 500/1k on Merge right now though, it might be close.
If somebody is 3betting you (2.5x) 25%ish, would you flat a 3bet w/ hands as weak as K9o,Q8o, J8o, & J7s in a super turbo? If so, what's your stack depth cutoff before you start folding these hands to a 3bet? Are you ever flatting hands that wide vs a 3x 3bet in a ST?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you developed a 4bet bluffing range? What kind of hands would you include in your 4bet bluffing range?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you start 4betting broadway hands like KQ,KJ,& QJ rather than flat them?
Considering that people's games change over periods of time, is there a certain time period you like to filter out on hud stats? I currently only use stats from the last 3 months. Does that sound good or would you change it?
I'm having trouble getting the txt of this HH. Is there an easy way to get that from HEM for Lock SNGs?SB (IRunLikeGod 1450)BB (JaredHubbard 1550)25/50Cards: KsQhSB raises to 100. I re-raise to 250. SB calls.Flop: 4hAc2d (500)I bet 250. SB raises to 510.Notes:We have played 77 games. He has flatted a 3bet w/ 16% & 4bet 10%. Over 37 3bet hands he has never folded to a cbet. I didn't know the # of 3bet hands in game but I knew he hadn't folded to a cbet in a 3bet pot yet. I have a lot of notes on him but not 1 of them has to do w/ him flatting a 3bet w/ an Ax hand.Considering he's only continuing w/ 26% of hands I don't expect much Ax in his range. Moreover, I would think he would sometimes flat the flop w/ Ax to give me the opportunity to barrel off since the board is dry & there's not a ton of value I can have. I certainly don't expect to see 4x or 2x in his range. If he flatted the 3bet w/ KK or QQ I would think he would just flat the flop & let me barrel.Nothing really makes sense. Are you stacking off here as a standard given our reads? If so, would you just jam the flop? Calling allows him to see a free card but also allows him to hang himself. However, I wouldn't think he would expect me to call that flop raise on this board & then check/fold turn, as my most likely holdings would be Ax or a big pair. Because of this I would think he would just shut down on the turn if I call.Also, I probably should have cbet 200.
There's a particular reg who 3bets around 30% w/ a bet sizing of 233. He stacks off to a 4bet 62% of the time. Against his stackoff range it's not profitable to 4bet shove a hand like A8o or A2s 30bb deep. I know we aren't normally flatting 3bets w/ Ax hands in STs, but our equity is obviously increased vs his expanded 3bet range compared to the average 3bet range. I also think having some Ax in our flatting range makes us harder to play against postflop. Would you consider flatting some Ax here? If so, how weak of an Ax hand would you flat?Also, vs an aggro 3bettor w/ a smaller 3bet size like that, how wide are you expanding your calling range in general?
Assuming a 2.5x re-raise w/ 20-30bb, how much would your flatting range change vs a 40% 3bettor, 35% 3bettor, 30% 3bettor, 25% 3bettor, 20% 3bettor, 15% 3bettor, & 10% 3bettor?Vs a 3x I'll assume you just chop off the bottom of your range unless noted otherwise.
If somebody is 3betting you (2.5x) 25%ish, would you flat a 3bet w/ hands as weak as K9o,Q8o, J8o, & J7s in a super turbo? If so, what's your stack depth cutoff before you start folding these hands to a 3bet? Are you ever flatting hands that wide vs a 3x 3bet in a ST?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you developed a 4bet bluffing range? What kind of hands would you include in your 4bet bluffing range?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you start 4betting broadway hands like KQ,KJ,& QJ rather than flat them?I would definitely flat a 3bet with those hands, tbh it's pretty close to my standard readless (probably Q9o+, J9o+, T8s/J8s+ approx). A little wider the deeper we are, and getting more and more tighter the shorter we get - but this is bc I expect the huge majority of players to have a wider non-ai 3betting range the deeper stacks are. Plenty of players 3bet bluff 25-30 deep non-ai, not so much 15-20 deep - not enough to be flatting this wide without great reads anyways.Definitely plenty of stack depths I'd be flatting a 3x against a wide 3bettor too. The wider the frequency, the better flatting (or jamming with certain hands) will be obv.Most importantly, if you are really getting 3bet so much at short eff stx that these type hands are mr/calls, I would just limp/call pre with these type hands. 4bet shoving example:We are dealt A2o 25bb deep and face a 3bet 100-250 (Merge stx ftw) from someone 3betting a range that consists of the top 25% hands.We have 39% fold equity39% of the time we win t250 from the start of the hand.61% of the time we are called for all the chips and have 34.5% equity. 2500 * (.345) = 862.5 chips. 1250 - 862.5 = 387.5. That's like losing 387.5 chips from the start of the hand. 39% of the time we win t250. 61% of the time we win t387.5. (0.39)(250) + (0.61)(-387.5) = -138.8 cEV of 4bet shoving A2o as a bluff. At this same stack depth, all else equal:A2s is -83.97 cEV (JAM)A7o is -116 cEV (FOLD)A8o is about -80 cEV (JAM). Anyways, I think you can intuitively extrapolate from here. I'll leave any further math up to you guys :)With same 3bet % and size, but deeper stacks we can 4bet bluff fewer hands.With same 3bet % and size, but shorter stack depths we can 4bet bluff more hands.So 25bb deep vs 25% 3bettor, I would 4bet: A8o+, A2s+, 22-QQ. 20bb deep vs same 3bettor, I would add all AX and KQ KJ as well. 30bb deep vs same 3bettor, we'll probably need to remove a few of our AX combos. Against a 35% 3bettor 30 deep, jamming all AX.As for non-allin 4bet bluffs, I wrote an article a few months ago that answers that pretty well:http://www.husng.com/content/making-non-committing-4bet-bluffs-when-why-...
Considering that people's games change over periods of time, is there a certain time period you like to filter out on hud stats? I currently only use stats from the last 3 months. Does that sound good or would you change it?I guess it depends if you think that the AVERAGE player's game changes enough of X period of time to filter out HUD stats. My guess is that the average players stats are still useful enough more often than not to still use them. I guess anything beyond 12 months or so might start pushing it though.
I'm having trouble getting the txt of this HH. Is there an easy way to get that from HEM for Lock SNGs?Not sure.KQ:It would shock me if he wasn't trying to level you here, especially after 77 games played. He is definitely smart enough to realize how little AX he has here. After 77 games, it's almost certain that he would realize you would think this too. Obv you could take it to a higher level, and since he knows u know all this - then u should also perceive a raise as him trying to level you with the random AX in his range here - so it would then be good as a bluff :). But I think it's a stretch to assume the thought process in this hand is THAT complex. Putting myself in his position vs you, if I had any AX here I would raise too. It just puts you in a gross spot, and I definitely think he is capable of it. So I'd actually be pretty nitty here and not stack off without AX+. I just really really doubt it's a bluff. I know that's not the sexy answer or w/e, but would just be absurd for someone as smart as him to have a bluff here (unless he realizes it will level you into being as nitty as I'm suggesting here...unlikely I think).Also, I think cbetting as low as t150 vs such a defined 3bet calling range is fine here - both with value and air.
There's a particular reg who 3bets around 30% w/ a bet sizing of 233. He stacks off to a 4bet 62% of the time. Against his stackoff range it's not profitable to 4bet shove a hand like A8o or A2s 30bb deep. I know we aren't normally flatting 3bets w/ Ax hands in STs, but our equity is obviously increased vs his expanded 3bet range compared to the average 3bet range. I also think having some Ax in our flatting range makes us harder to play against postflop. Would you consider flatting some Ax here? If so, how weak of an Ax hand would you flat?Also, vs an aggro 3bettor w/ a smaller 3bet size like that, how wide are you expanding your calling range in general?Well I wouldn't take a hand with -EV expectation as a call, and call just bc it makes us harder to play postflop. We don't need AX exactly, we just need to call off lighter on AXX boards if he's barreling off on us a huge amount bc he knows we have no AX. We don't need to be able to win pots on all board textures for our call to have positive expectation is my main point here. If we can't jam, but calling has positive expectation, then def flat AX. If it has negative expectation, fold (or non-allin 4bet).My intuition tells me that flatting A8o/A7o/A2s-A4s or A5s is going to be fine. Folding the weaker offsuit aces. If you think you are able to 4bet bluff without getting flatted a ton, or jammed on a ton. Then I'd look make non-ai 4bet bluffs with a lot of the weaker AX hands that can't just 4bet jam.I think typically a really good way to tell how someone will respond to 4bets is how passive they are overall.***(we are most concerned with just not getting flatted a ton, vs a 30% 3bet range i seriously doubt enough of it will 5b shove for a non-ai 4b to be -ev....we just cant have people flatting a ton of middling connected to KQ type stuff too much - lots of people dont).So what is their flatting range like oop? Are the just 3betting a lot but not flatting much? Are they flatting our cbets a lot or c/r a lot? Etc. Most players that are aggro like this hate being passive, especially in big pots - and they will tend to just jam/fold here and not flat nearly enough. If you think this reg might not flat much, I'd def try non-ai 4b bluffing the weaker AX including the offsuit AX.So yes, I would flat certain AX hands as long as calling has positive expectation.I would be looking to 4bet bluff non-ai, esp with the card removal of the weaker AX hands that can't profitably 4bet jam.I'm tightening my pfr range a bit to 75%ish. Widening my 3bet calling range probably down to something like 98o, 76s.
Assuming a 2.5x re-raise w/ 20-30bb, how much would your flatting range change vs a 40% 3bettor, 35% 3bettor, 30% 3bettor, 25% 3bettor, 20% 3bettor, 15% 3bettor, & 10% 3bettor?Vs a 3x I'll assume you just chop off the bottom of your range unless noted otherwise.Fwd this one to Mers thread, I feel like I covered this a decent bit already, but want to see if he has anything to say before I continue with it. Obv limping more vs the wider frequencies, so will mean I'm mr/calling less. Also 4bet shoving more vs wider frequencies. Typically raising wider pre vs tighter frequencies (assuming they arent flatting a ton oop). Flatting 3bets less overall and 4bet shoving less. 25 stx vs a 10% 3bettor I'm still mr/calling T9s+ . Expanding my flatting range gradually wider from there as we approach 25% 3bet frequency, then beginning to add more 4bet shoving hands that I was folding previously.
Assuming a healthy >50% opening range, it decreases the amount of hands where flatting is the best option, for sure. We're 3bet jamming (or 3bet bluffing if deeper) more hands like J3s, T5s, etc. Some JTs type hands will be better to jam as well, it just depends on the exact stack depth, opening frequency, and to a lesser extent, calling frequency.The most important thing, and this is going to sound a little obvious but bear with me, is to really hone in on opening range and gameflow against the best regs. The reason why a lot of great players are starting to use the 2.25x is because it messes with people's math/intuition and they start jamming too wide or not wide enough. What these guys often do is use this size and then mess with their opening range and cause you to make large mistakes when you're still jamming wide over, or not wide enough.
i liked seeing the charts for ax hands that said reshoving is likely the most +ev play if our opponent is raising x % at different stack depths. i think a good idea for an article would be a reshoving article with lots of those calcs for dfferent hands.
It's a little bit more difficult with different hands, because calling range is so significant (It doesn't matter as much when we have A3). I'll give it a shot, though.
Full Tilt 10-12bb from sb: 3,809 hands, 54.5 steal, 82.9 PFR/VPIP Ratio,65.7 VPIP, 3.98 ev bb/100Lock 10-12bb from sb: 3,859 hands, 60.5 steal, 87.9 PFR/VPIP Ratio, 69.4 VPIP, -1.56 ev bb/100Do you take anything from this or do you think it's too small of a sample? If too small of a sample how big of a sample would you want to see before it's significant? Also, you said before that after 100-150 games against 1 player the #s can sometimes tell you if you have a significant edge. Obviously reads factor in as well but how high of an ev bb/100 would you want to see vs 1 player after 100 and 150 games to be pretty sure you had an edge? Thanks
I do think you can take better advantage of the limp at that stack depth, but it could be noise. It's pretty significant, though.Honestly, I've almost always judged my "edge" or lack there of against a player based on how many plays I feel he's butchered or how many frequencies seem really out of whack, rather than looking too much at HEM EV, which can be heavily influenced by coolers/noise over small samples. That said, the info is still useful. I don't think I've ever looked at it like "ok, I'm +xbb/100, I'm pretty sure I have an edge", just, "ok, I think this guy sucks, now time to check my EV".
What are your fold bb to steal #s & 3bet #s at the following stack depths:10-12bb:12-15bb:Thanks
Also, 15-25bb from sb what are yourstealPFR/VPIP Ratiovs 3bet call %4bet % Thanks
16-20bb if somebody is 3bet shoving a healthy % (say 30%+) but still folding their bb to a steal more than 50% of the time would you prefer to limp or raise your middling stuff in general?
I don't know how useful my lifetime frequencies are, because I used to play a very different style."16-20bb if somebody is 3bet shoving a healthy % (say 30%+) but still folding their bb to a steal more than 50% of the time would you prefer to limp or raise your middling stuff in general?"Depends how low VPIP and aggression vs limps and whether we have a hand that can limp/call a 3x. In general though still limping if it's close to 50% more likely to raise if it's <45%.
I was definitely only considering hands that can call a 3x."Depends how low VPIP and aggression vs limps and whether we have a hand that can limp/call a 3x. In general though still limping if it's close to 50% more likely to raise if it's <45%."If their bb VIP is less than 45% that should be more of an argument for limping because you instantly win the pot with a raise less often. I assume you mean still limping if its close to 50% more likely to raise if it's >55%. Right?
I'll post my hud stats in those spots & you can let me know what you think.10-12bb:fold bb to steal: 68.93bet: 13.912-15bb:fold bb to steal: 62.63bet: 24.5I know I've been missing some 3bets recently but my FTP #s are more of the same. My ev bb/100 is still good at these stack sizes & I know it's an awkward stack size because we can't flat as much & people are often inducing a lot. However, in theory I was thinking the fold bb to steal # should be slightly lower or slightly higher than 50. If we have their correct opening frequencies down we should be able to 3bet more than 50% or slightly less than 50% at these stacks. I guess maybe the fact that I tend to 3bet on the nittier side w/ small sample sizes since people tend to induce a lot at these stacks sways the fold bb to stealActually, my ev bb/100 from the bb at 10-15bb is 4.13 but it's 5.98 at 12-15 & only 0.18 ev b/100 at 10-12bb, which makes sense because of the extra folding I'm doing at 10-12bb. My fold bb to steal is FAR less at other stack sizes.
Also, 15-25bb:VPIP: 74.5steal: 67.7PFR/VPIP Ratio: 90.9vs 3bet call %: 26.24bet %: 4.8I'm not sure why the 4bet % is so low as my standard is to 4bet 22+,A8+, & maybe A7s at these stacks & against some players I'm 4betting much wider. Maybe it's because I'm flatting the weaker aces vs min 3bets & often 2x 3bets.The reason I'm asking this is because my ev bb/100 is only 1.31 at these stacks, with my over ev bb/100 being 6.35. 15-25bb from the sb should probably have a higher ev bb/100 than my overall ev bb/100. For comparison, my ev bb/100 from the bb is 8.64. I do think I play very well from the bb at these stack sizes but still think that my sb ev bb/100 should be higher.On FTP I was 7.20 ev bb/100 from the SB 15-25bb with the following #s:VPIP: 69.9steal: 65.3PFR/VPIP Ratio: 93.5vs 3bet call: 22.34bet: 4.5I find a big discrepancy between Lock & FTP on my all in equity from the sb 15-25bb:Lock:Pre: 50.5Flop: 50.4Turn: 45.7FTP:Pre: 52.6Flop: 55.9Turn: 50.7This could be tied to the fact that I'm playing more hands on Lock, particularly in 3bet pots, so my starting hand value is weaker. It should also be noted that I don't generally wait for lobbies on Lock and sit most regs, whereas on FTP I was mostly bum hunting.Sample sizes:Merge: 6,982 gamesFTP: 4,689 gamesLet me know if you think there's anything to take out of this or if you think it's more likely that another factor, like coolers, is more likely effecting the #s. Thanks
"If their bb VPIP is less than 45% that should be more of an argument for limping because you instantly win the pot with a raise less often. I assume you mean still limping if its close to 50% more likely to raise if it's >55%. Right?"I'm confused. A low BB VPIP means you're getting more preflop folds. Which is good. Which means raising is better.
"I'm confused. A low BB VPIP means you're getting more preflop folds. Which is good. Which means raising is better."Ahhh...I was talking about fold bb to steal, so obv the higher the better. Ya BB VIP would be opposite.
"10-12bb: fold bb to steal: 68.9 3bet: 13.9"I'm torn about whether this is a problem or not. Obviously, you know that you'd get ripped apart by aggressive regulars without increasing these frequencies, but you're absolutely right that many people's minraising ranges, especially 10bb deep, can be quite strong. What's making me think it might be OK is 10bb messing with the numbers, but it still seems pretty damn tight.12bb deep, give me a folding range to a minraise (don't worry about jam or call). All we know is that he's raised one of two buttons so far.
I don't find anything particularly damning in the 15-25bb small blind numbers. The difference is likely in other factors than just the base frequencies.
What's your flatting range vs a player stealing 7% 20-30bb? Lol. I play this guy on Merge who seriously opens 6.6% from the btn over 479 hands. It's just so lol tight I feel like we should be folding a lot our Ax even but am not sure how wide to call with hands that "flop well."At 12-15bb he gets all hyper aggro & starts stealing w/ 21% so he'll have a lot of junk hands like K7s & T9s in his range. :)What would you flat vs that range at those stack depths?
"12bb deep, give me a folding range to a minraise (don't worry about jam or call). All we know is that he's raised one of two buttons so far."In game I would obv have more reads than that as I wouldn't be sleeping til we get to 12bb effective but if the only read I have is that he raised 1 of 2 buttons I'd probably push 22+,A2+,K9+,K7s+,QJ,QTs+,JTs & flat K8o,K6s,Q9o-QTo,Q8s,J9o-JTo,T9o,98s. I'm guessing that's a fold bb to steal of somewhere around 70%.
"What's your flatting range vs a player stealing 7% 20-30bb? Lol. I play this guy on Merge who seriously opens 6.6% from the btn over 479 hands. It's just so lol tight I feel like we should be folding a lot our Ax even but am not sure how wide to call with hands that "flop well."Yeah fold weak Ax. Fold JTo. You can call suited no-gappers for the implied odds. lol.You should probably know that he's not trapping with AA/KK with limps though. It changes if he's just limping almost everything but then picks random hands to raise.At 12-15bb he gets all hyper aggro & starts stealing w/ 21% so he'll have a lot of junk hands like K7s & T9s in his range. :) What would you flat vs that range at those stack depths?"Flatting basically nothing here I think.
"22+,A2+,K9+,K7s+,QJ,QTs+,JTs & flat K8o,K6s,Q9o-QTo,Q8s,J9o-JTo,T9o,98s. I'm guessing that's a fold bb to steal of somewhere around 70%."I think it's too tight. T8s, 87s, 97s definitely should definitely be played, K7o, 76s, 86s, and otheres I'd argue for as well.
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How wide are you calling a min re-raise 20-30bb readless?What about if they've been doing it frequently?
Playing ATC.
How wide are you raising a limp readless? How does this change if they defend liberally vs cbets or fold vs too many cbets?
How high of a check/raise percentage would you want to see before you start 4betting hands like naked flush draws and how does this change if you're 30bb, 25bb or 20bb deep?
Some good HUSNG players prefer making a smaller cbet on non connected Ax boards, like 75 into 200 or 150 into 400. I certainly agree that's all that needed. However, Ax boards can also be good boards to 3 barrel. If we're 30bb HU in a Lock ST at 25/50 a 75 flop bet sets up a 3 barrel pretty poorly, whereas if we bet half pot or more or river shove should be right around the size of the pot. Do you think that's enough of a reason to just make it half pot or would you still make it smaller?
What are your EV bb/100 #s at the following stack sizes from the SB & BB seperately?20-30bb:16-20bb:10-15bb:<10bb:
First of all, nice to meet you here and thank you for this thread, which helped me so much when I first came here in Aug. For some personal reasons, I will skip fasttrack for this month and will definitely come back in the future. This is such a valuable program. We have a similar background of 6max super turbo experience. Those preflop skills were all I have for poker, instead you play far far better than me in postflops. But I think you still might be interested in this one.For your reference, mine for PS 25bb deep hyper HUSNGs is:20-25bb(27.6k hands): SB 15.00 BB -5.3515-20bb(12.5k): 4.74 5.6010-15bb(16.0k): 9.43 4.530-10bb (12.2k): 5.06 2.52For ftp 6max ST HU situations (when I suck at HU much more than now): I also have 237k HU hands (3.29 for SB and 4.08 for BB ev bb/100), but most of them are <12bb as you know.
What are your thoughts on having a 2.25xing range in STs & constantly adjusting it vs different counter adjustments to induce your opponents to make bigger mistakes? If you like the idea, what kind of a 2.25x range would you start with as a standard?
What % would you want your opponent to be 2 barreling before you consider a line like check/call flop, check/raise turn all in (ST) w/ something like a naked flush draw?
How wide are you raising a limp readless? How does this change if they defend liberally vs cbets or fold vs too many cbets?99% of the time that someone suggests forgoing a huge short term edge to protect a more profitable long term edge, i think they are wrong and fishbowlzzzz. raising limps is one aspect that i actually think this can be very true though, and something that the huge majority of regs don't consider and cost themselves a lot of EV over the long term.when villains limp vs us, we should love it. it's giving a bunch of hands in our range free equity to see a flop that would have otherwise folded to a pfr. villain gives up initiative, and we are able to lead flops with a lot of fold equity/barreling opportunities on lots of different boards. in most cases, all villain has to do to have an overall positive expectation from his sb is to raise us with a wide range preflop (barring when they raise way too wide short and we can jam really wide obv, and stuff like that). so basically, when villain is limping a wide range vs us...it's going to be pretty hard for us to have a better expectation from our bb overall. that is not something that we want to go away.when we raise limps wide (40%+), we discourage villain from limping a wide range. sure, if we know we have a bunch of fold equity preflop then that is a huge short term edge (or cbet fold equity), but my argument is that villains will adjust very quickly in response to this - starting to raise their sb more, or limp/calling more and folding less postflop. raising too wide over limps overexploits our edge, and usually guarantees that our bb expectation will diminish pretty quickly. it doesn't take a thinking player to adjust to us raising a lot...it's pretty common sense imo.students often respond, "but Hokie, we only play most of our opponents for just a small handful of games...do we really care about protecting our edge over the longterm then?" my answer is that over a handful of games, its pretty damn rare that you actually establish enough reads to know that villain is really limp/folding a super-exploitable amount, or folding to cbets a ton. raising as a bluff vs most people to see if they will limp/fold is usually unnecessary or just -ev against an undefined range, and we should just check back and take our free equity. so i'd really avoid overexploiting this edge and continue letting villain do us the biggest favor he can: maximizing our expectation from the bb.i'm usually raising limps with a wide value range initially, probably about 30-35% of starting hands T9o+ basically. wide value bc the average villain limps too wide, if we include bluffs in our raising rang here readless it increases our frequency too much.if i find that villains are limp/folding a decent, but not huge amount (like 60-75%), i will change my range within the same frequency (30-35%) and just raise less overall value than before, but add some reasonably playable air as bluffs to my range.i'll gradually increase the amount of bluffs in my range, and decrease value from there as i find villain has a higher and higher fold % when i raise his limp, but still within about the same frequency.i've definitely had opponents before who folded almost 100% to limps, so i just raised literally the bottom 35% of hand combos and checked back everything else. why raise AK over a limp when you have 100% fold equity? our checkback range is massively strengthened by eliminating the bottom of it. can't really have a bigger oop edge on someone than that ... and by not overexploiting your edge you can sustain it for a longer time.just remember, if ur playing a thinking player at all and u showdown AK limped but ur raising 35% of his limps ... alarm bells could easily go off for him. if i feel im playing someone who could at least htink on this level, i'd include those types of hands in my limp raising range still.anyways, just to make sure i fully answer your question.<13 stx i'm just jamming any AX/22-99/K5o+/KXs+/QXs+/some low suited connectors (still 30-35%ish) over a limp semi-readless. obv raising some of the value hands in that range to a non-allin size.long post, thought about this a tonnn. i think this is another thought process of mine that is pretty unconventional. what do you guys think?
How high of a check/raise percentage would you want to see before you start 4betting hands like naked flush draws and how does this change if you're 30bb, 25bb or 20bb deep?i think you def realize you can't use your HEM c/r stat as a blanket assessment of c/r frequency on all board textures, but i'll just mention it for others. people who c/r bluff tend to c/r bluff dry boards with a ton more frequency, and can have far less total value combos to balance a high frequency with as compared to a wet board.to figure this out very specifically, you'd just have to do some ev calcs with different ranges/frequencies to get a feel for it (and at different stack sizes).if you want to do an ev calc:first stove your hand vs villain's 4bet shove calling range (try for a rough estimate)example:1300 starting eff stx bb 50, we raise 7h 3h pre to t100 and villain callsflop is Qh 6h 2c, we cbet t100 and vilain c/r to t300step 1) estimate villain's c/r frequency and the fold equity we have when we jam over it. lets say it's 60% for this example.step 2) estimate villains 4bet shove calling range, plug that range into stove and figure out your equity vs that range ... lets say we are 32% vs villains caling range here.the math:60% of the time we win the pot and are winning t400 from the start of the hand. 40% of the time we get called for all the chips, and have 32% equity. all the chips are 2600. 2600 * .32 = 832. that's like losing 1300 - 832 = t468. that's like losing t468 from the start of the hand.60% of the time we win 400. 40% of the time we lose. (0.6)(400) + (0.4)(-468) = 240 - 187.2 = 52.8 cEV.So, on average, we win 52.8 chips by 4bet shoving the flop. Alternatively, we lose 200 chips by folding to the c/r. So 4bet shoving is far greater than folding. Calculating for flatting is difficult without knowing villain's turn tendancies (im not even sure how to do it anyways), but we aren't passing up a +52.8 cEV flop edge ever anyways.So that's the math behind it, and you can mess with that to develop a better intuitive understanding of what fold equity and equity vs villain's range you need at different stack depths. We just want 4betting to be better than folding, so at short eff stx if we have correct fe we're obv jamming. At deeper stacks of 25-30bb, depending on the size of villain's c/r and the frequencies/equity you estimate, flatting can definitely have better expectation than jamming since we will likely have remaining stack depth in some cases to correctly flat a turn barrel.I hope that answers your question reasonably well. I'm basically saying, it depends a ton and having an intuitive understanding of this stuff is really important.
remember to polarize your cbetting range vs a wide-c/r as well. polarized = hands that continue vs a c/r well and hands that easily fold to a c/r. your checkback range includes hands that have showdown value and can call turn/river vs leads on certain runouts, but dont fair well enough vs c/r range.so depending on how wide villain's c/r frequency is, and how much fold equity we have when jamming over it - some hands can be easy cbet/3bet vs a v high c/r % on X board texture, while the same hands can by good to check back vs a lower (but still wide...just not wide enough) c/r % on the same board texture.you definitely need a sample size, or get to some showdowns to get a feel for villain's actual c/r range on different boards. so my default would be quick to polarize my checkback range first, instead of making dangerous assumptions about villain's c/r frequency. polarizing your cbet range with the right hands is never going to be -ev, but possibly not maxEV.
Some good HUSNG players prefer making a smaller cbet on non connected Ax boards, like 75 into 200 or 150 into 400. I certainly agree that's all that needed. However, Ax boards can also be good boards to 3 barrel. If we're 30bb HU in a Lock ST at 25/50 a 75 flop bet sets up a 3 barrel pretty poorly, whereas if we bet half pot or more or river shove should be right around the size of the pot. Do you think that's enough of a reason to just make it half pot or would you still make it smaller?it's hard for villain to have many hands that can call a cbet on a dry AXX in a hyper. most villain's will call t75 with a wider range than t100 on this texture. this makes barreling for us even better, since we should have more fold equity. also, we should be playing our value with a t75 cbet as well (or even a checkback vs some), and then smaller barrel sizings on turn/river than we do with our bluffs (very exploitable obv) - this just shows good of a line i think t75 + 50% turn barrel + 80%-slight overbet river barrel is going to be as a bluff.be careful that when you "setup stacks for a river jam" you are still considering how your sizings are effecting ranges, and how alternatives might fair better/worse.this is still kind of a leak of mine when i'm not on my A game.
What are your EV bb/100 #s at the following stack sizes from the SB & BB seperately?20-30bb:16-20bb:10-15bb:<10bb:just started with PT3 3 weeks ago, let me get back to you about it in a month or two. maybe ask Mers if you haven't already.
What % would you want your opponent to be 2 barreling before you consider a line like check/call flop, check/raise turn all in (ST) w/ something like a naked flush draw?i would answer this really similarly to the EV Calc a few posts above. the math is exactly the same. just keep in mind when you are looking at your HEM turn barrel stat:turn barreling ranges are highly impacted by SB pfr and flop cbet %. **for sake of argument lets assume both villains cbet/2 barrel all board textures with same frequency (this is almost never the case)Villain A: raises 85% pre, cbets 85%, 2 barrels 60%.Villain B: raises 65% pre, cbets 65%, 2 barrels 60%I think it's pretty obvious that villain A has a ton more bluffs (and hands that will fold to a check/shove) than Villain B. Villain B's 65% pfr weights his overall range to hands that hit boards well, his cbet range typically indicates that it will be pretty value/equity heavy (if it's polarized its more complicated/different), so he's going to show up on the turn with a ton more decent hands, even though his 2 barrel % is the same as Villain A's.and i know u know this, but to others: the 60% turn cbet range is 60% of the villain's flop cbet range. not just 60% total. hope that makes sense, feel like i'm not explaining that well?
What are your thoughts on having a 2.25xing range in STs & constantly adjusting it vs different counter adjustments to induce your opponents to make bigger mistakes? If you like the idea, what kind of a 2.25x range would you start with as a standard?I think it's great, as long as it's necessary. The great thing about 2.25xing is that it makes your opponent uncomfortable, and thus leads to him making more mistake. Just remember, you don't need to make someone uncomfortable who was never comfortable to begin with! Most of our opponents we already have a very good edge on in position and they are already uncomfortable vs us and making a bunch of dumb mistakes. Why decrease the stack:pot ratio for postflop play (by increasing our preflop size)? Shorter stack:pot ratio almost always = lower winrate = higher variance.Some common misconceptions my students who have tried this have had:1) When your opponent folds more out of position, some of the % that he folds he is folding correctly! You are risking more to win his bb, so he doesn't have to defend with as wide of a range. Of course plenty of players will still fold too much, but when u get villain to fold his K5o and 96o...you didn't accomplish anything, so stop patting yourself on the back!2) If you are mr/calling the same frequency that you would when you 2x at 21bb stx, villain can correctly jam a slightly wider range than vs the 2x with more value in fold equity. Of course plenty of players will 3bet shove too much or too little, but when u get villain to jam his K2s and he was only jamming down to K5s vs a 2x...you didn't accomplish anything! (same applies to non-ai 3bet bluff fold equity) So basically, I think it's overused a lot of the time, but can be great versus good opponents who are very comfortable with the standard sizings and postflop play with standard stack sizes.So if you do think it's necessary/more profitable than 2x'ing:I would either:A) do it as my standard down to 20ish bb stx, and decrease my pfr slightly to account for the things I listed above. See how villain adjusts, if he's folding too much increase pfr. If he's jamming too much, widen calling range and probably limp to limp/call some.B) do it with a balanced range:hands that can bet/3bet, but don't fair too well when flatted oop (AK/AQ/66/77 type stuff); polarized with the weaker end of your pfr that folds to 3bets and doesn't play very well oop when flatted (K2o, Q5o, T2s type stuff). just remember that each off suit trash combo is 12 combos and a suited combo is 4, so adding a lot of offsuit trash to this range can imbalance it quite a bit if ur not careful (obv we can be imbalanced correctly for diff reasons). so this range would probably be like 20-25% of your total pfr range if you are raising 70% or so i'd guess.
I know we somewhat talked about this on skype the other week but I never really asked for your thoughts.When thinking of maximizing hourly rate, is there a certain % you want your lowest buy-in to be when comparing it to your highest buy-in running?When I have a $1K running I don't register lower than $500. When I have a $500 running I don't generally register lower than $250. While I'm pretty damn sure it's -EV to register for a $150 with a $1K running, I could possibly be convinced otherwise with a $500 running, although I don't currently register for $150s w/ a $500 running.Without $500s & $1Ks running I'll sometimes register all the way down to $90, depending on how the action is. $500+ action is so hit and miss that I'd rather not just sit only in high stakes lobbies waiting if nothing is running. Once I get games running in the $250-$90 range the difference between my highest buy-in running & lowest buy-in I register for varies. If it's later in the week where my mind is warmed up better I'm usually willing to accept a wider gap between highest buy-in & lowest buy-in than earlier in the week, especially considering I'm playing less tables earlier in the week. Thanks for that article on warming up the mind throughout the week. I think that has helped a lot. I used to just 4-6 table pretty much all week.The worst is when I get a few $90-$250 running & a $1K pops off, or I sit a reg in a $90 & then instantly get sat in a $1K. This is bound to happen though and I think it's still worth registering for lower buy-ins with no $500/$1Ks running, although I could be convinced on where the optimal cutoff is (ex. higher than $90).Thoughts?
cross-post that above question to the Mers thread. you've considered that a lot more than i ever have tbh. i'm interested tho.i try to avoid playing anything that is >2 buyin levels apart, but it will happen on occasion. when 5ks ran on Merge, i was sitting 180 ST - 5k turbo at times lol. i actually had a 5k open when i had a 220 running. i had a massive fish in 220, but obv declined after it ended and focused on the 5k. i just dont think the EV gained in-game from focusing on the higher stakes games, outweighs the $/hr gained from getting in more games/hour by playing more lobbies - as long as you are declining lower stakes games when higher stakes games run.i think with action being reasonable at 500/1k on Merge right now though, it might be close.
If somebody is 3betting you (2.5x) 25%ish, would you flat a 3bet w/ hands as weak as K9o,Q8o, J8o, & J7s in a super turbo? If so, what's your stack depth cutoff before you start folding these hands to a 3bet? Are you ever flatting hands that wide vs a 3x 3bet in a ST?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you developed a 4bet bluffing range? What kind of hands would you include in your 4bet bluffing range?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you start 4betting broadway hands like KQ,KJ,& QJ rather than flat them?
Considering that people's games change over periods of time, is there a certain time period you like to filter out on hud stats? I currently only use stats from the last 3 months. Does that sound good or would you change it?
I'm having trouble getting the txt of this HH. Is there an easy way to get that from HEM for Lock SNGs?SB (IRunLikeGod 1450)BB (JaredHubbard 1550)25/50Cards: KsQhSB raises to 100. I re-raise to 250. SB calls.Flop: 4hAc2d (500)I bet 250. SB raises to 510.Notes:We have played 77 games. He has flatted a 3bet w/ 16% & 4bet 10%. Over 37 3bet hands he has never folded to a cbet. I didn't know the # of 3bet hands in game but I knew he hadn't folded to a cbet in a 3bet pot yet. I have a lot of notes on him but not 1 of them has to do w/ him flatting a 3bet w/ an Ax hand.Considering he's only continuing w/ 26% of hands I don't expect much Ax in his range. Moreover, I would think he would sometimes flat the flop w/ Ax to give me the opportunity to barrel off since the board is dry & there's not a ton of value I can have. I certainly don't expect to see 4x or 2x in his range. If he flatted the 3bet w/ KK or QQ I would think he would just flat the flop & let me barrel.Nothing really makes sense. Are you stacking off here as a standard given our reads? If so, would you just jam the flop? Calling allows him to see a free card but also allows him to hang himself. However, I wouldn't think he would expect me to call that flop raise on this board & then check/fold turn, as my most likely holdings would be Ax or a big pair. Because of this I would think he would just shut down on the turn if I call.Also, I probably should have cbet 200.
There's a particular reg who 3bets around 30% w/ a bet sizing of 233. He stacks off to a 4bet 62% of the time. Against his stackoff range it's not profitable to 4bet shove a hand like A8o or A2s 30bb deep. I know we aren't normally flatting 3bets w/ Ax hands in STs, but our equity is obviously increased vs his expanded 3bet range compared to the average 3bet range. I also think having some Ax in our flatting range makes us harder to play against postflop. Would you consider flatting some Ax here? If so, how weak of an Ax hand would you flat?Also, vs an aggro 3bettor w/ a smaller 3bet size like that, how wide are you expanding your calling range in general?
Assuming a 2.5x re-raise w/ 20-30bb, how much would your flatting range change vs a 40% 3bettor, 35% 3bettor, 30% 3bettor, 25% 3bettor, 20% 3bettor, 15% 3bettor, & 10% 3bettor?Vs a 3x I'll assume you just chop off the bottom of your range unless noted otherwise.
If somebody is 3betting you (2.5x) 25%ish, would you flat a 3bet w/ hands as weak as K9o,Q8o, J8o, & J7s in a super turbo? If so, what's your stack depth cutoff before you start folding these hands to a 3bet? Are you ever flatting hands that wide vs a 3x 3bet in a ST?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you developed a 4bet bluffing range? What kind of hands would you include in your 4bet bluffing range?How wide would you want somebody to be 3betting in a ST before you start 4betting broadway hands like KQ,KJ,& QJ rather than flat them?I would definitely flat a 3bet with those hands, tbh it's pretty close to my standard readless (probably Q9o+, J9o+, T8s/J8s+ approx). A little wider the deeper we are, and getting more and more tighter the shorter we get - but this is bc I expect the huge majority of players to have a wider non-ai 3betting range the deeper stacks are. Plenty of players 3bet bluff 25-30 deep non-ai, not so much 15-20 deep - not enough to be flatting this wide without great reads anyways.Definitely plenty of stack depths I'd be flatting a 3x against a wide 3bettor too. The wider the frequency, the better flatting (or jamming with certain hands) will be obv.Most importantly, if you are really getting 3bet so much at short eff stx that these type hands are mr/calls, I would just limp/call pre with these type hands. 4bet shoving example:We are dealt A2o 25bb deep and face a 3bet 100-250 (Merge stx ftw) from someone 3betting a range that consists of the top 25% hands.We have 39% fold equity39% of the time we win t250 from the start of the hand.61% of the time we are called for all the chips and have 34.5% equity. 2500 * (.345) = 862.5 chips. 1250 - 862.5 = 387.5. That's like losing 387.5 chips from the start of the hand. 39% of the time we win t250. 61% of the time we win t387.5. (0.39)(250) + (0.61)(-387.5) = -138.8 cEV of 4bet shoving A2o as a bluff. At this same stack depth, all else equal:A2s is -83.97 cEV (JAM)A7o is -116 cEV (FOLD)A8o is about -80 cEV (JAM). Anyways, I think you can intuitively extrapolate from here. I'll leave any further math up to you guys :)With same 3bet % and size, but deeper stacks we can 4bet bluff fewer hands.With same 3bet % and size, but shorter stack depths we can 4bet bluff more hands.So 25bb deep vs 25% 3bettor, I would 4bet: A8o+, A2s+, 22-QQ. 20bb deep vs same 3bettor, I would add all AX and KQ KJ as well. 30bb deep vs same 3bettor, we'll probably need to remove a few of our AX combos. Against a 35% 3bettor 30 deep, jamming all AX.As for non-allin 4bet bluffs, I wrote an article a few months ago that answers that pretty well:http://www.husng.com/content/making-non-committing-4bet-bluffs-when-why-...
Considering that people's games change over periods of time, is there a certain time period you like to filter out on hud stats? I currently only use stats from the last 3 months. Does that sound good or would you change it?I guess it depends if you think that the AVERAGE player's game changes enough of X period of time to filter out HUD stats. My guess is that the average players stats are still useful enough more often than not to still use them. I guess anything beyond 12 months or so might start pushing it though.
I'm having trouble getting the txt of this HH. Is there an easy way to get that from HEM for Lock SNGs?Not sure.KQ:It would shock me if he wasn't trying to level you here, especially after 77 games played. He is definitely smart enough to realize how little AX he has here. After 77 games, it's almost certain that he would realize you would think this too. Obv you could take it to a higher level, and since he knows u know all this - then u should also perceive a raise as him trying to level you with the random AX in his range here - so it would then be good as a bluff :). But I think it's a stretch to assume the thought process in this hand is THAT complex. Putting myself in his position vs you, if I had any AX here I would raise too. It just puts you in a gross spot, and I definitely think he is capable of it. So I'd actually be pretty nitty here and not stack off without AX+. I just really really doubt it's a bluff. I know that's not the sexy answer or w/e, but would just be absurd for someone as smart as him to have a bluff here (unless he realizes it will level you into being as nitty as I'm suggesting here...unlikely I think).Also, I think cbetting as low as t150 vs such a defined 3bet calling range is fine here - both with value and air.
There's a particular reg who 3bets around 30% w/ a bet sizing of 233. He stacks off to a 4bet 62% of the time. Against his stackoff range it's not profitable to 4bet shove a hand like A8o or A2s 30bb deep. I know we aren't normally flatting 3bets w/ Ax hands in STs, but our equity is obviously increased vs his expanded 3bet range compared to the average 3bet range. I also think having some Ax in our flatting range makes us harder to play against postflop. Would you consider flatting some Ax here? If so, how weak of an Ax hand would you flat?Also, vs an aggro 3bettor w/ a smaller 3bet size like that, how wide are you expanding your calling range in general?Well I wouldn't take a hand with -EV expectation as a call, and call just bc it makes us harder to play postflop. We don't need AX exactly, we just need to call off lighter on AXX boards if he's barreling off on us a huge amount bc he knows we have no AX. We don't need to be able to win pots on all board textures for our call to have positive expectation is my main point here. If we can't jam, but calling has positive expectation, then def flat AX. If it has negative expectation, fold (or non-allin 4bet).My intuition tells me that flatting A8o/A7o/A2s-A4s or A5s is going to be fine. Folding the weaker offsuit aces. If you think you are able to 4bet bluff without getting flatted a ton, or jammed on a ton. Then I'd look make non-ai 4bet bluffs with a lot of the weaker AX hands that can't just 4bet jam.I think typically a really good way to tell how someone will respond to 4bets is how passive they are overall.***(we are most concerned with just not getting flatted a ton, vs a 30% 3bet range i seriously doubt enough of it will 5b shove for a non-ai 4b to be -ev....we just cant have people flatting a ton of middling connected to KQ type stuff too much - lots of people dont).So what is their flatting range like oop? Are the just 3betting a lot but not flatting much? Are they flatting our cbets a lot or c/r a lot? Etc. Most players that are aggro like this hate being passive, especially in big pots - and they will tend to just jam/fold here and not flat nearly enough. If you think this reg might not flat much, I'd def try non-ai 4b bluffing the weaker AX including the offsuit AX.So yes, I would flat certain AX hands as long as calling has positive expectation.I would be looking to 4bet bluff non-ai, esp with the card removal of the weaker AX hands that can't profitably 4bet jam.I'm tightening my pfr range a bit to 75%ish. Widening my 3bet calling range probably down to something like 98o, 76s.
If somebody 3bets to 233 what are you 4betting non all in to?I usually flat 75s & 98o as a standard vs a 3bet unless their 3bet range is tight
Assuming a 2.5x re-raise w/ 20-30bb, how much would your flatting range change vs a 40% 3bettor, 35% 3bettor, 30% 3bettor, 25% 3bettor, 20% 3bettor, 15% 3bettor, & 10% 3bettor?Vs a 3x I'll assume you just chop off the bottom of your range unless noted otherwise.Fwd this one to Mers thread, I feel like I covered this a decent bit already, but want to see if he has anything to say before I continue with it. Obv limping more vs the wider frequencies, so will mean I'm mr/calling less. Also 4bet shoving more vs wider frequencies. Typically raising wider pre vs tighter frequencies (assuming they arent flatting a ton oop). Flatting 3bets less overall and 4bet shoving less. 25 stx vs a 10% 3bettor I'm still mr/calling T9s+ . Expanding my flatting range gradually wider from there as we approach 25% 3bet frequency, then beginning to add more 4bet shoving hands that I was folding previously.
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