Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History Converter BTN/SB: t1315 13.15 BBs Hero (BB): t1685 16.85 BBsPre Flop: (t150) Hero is BB with 3 Q BTN/SB calls t50, Hero raises to t1685 all in, 1 fold Final Pot: t200 Hero mucks 3 Q Hero wins t200 I noticed that villain's limping range 10-15bb is weak and he was min raising his strong hands. Thefore I expected him to fold almost always to my shove. Is this a spot where I should be jamming close to any two (if I have this read)? Ofc he will adjust at some point after seeing my constant attacks but I'm well aware of my image and I won't shove blindly if I feel like he might be starting to trap me. This was the first time when I attacked his limp by shoving at this stack depth.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BB): t1615 80.75 BBsBTN/SB: t1385 69.25 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 9 T BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t40 Flop: (t120) 3 7 6 (2 players) Hero bets t60, BTN/SB folds Final Pot: t120 Hero mucks 9 T Hero wins t120 You said you didn't like my donk bet with J9hh on 567sss (post #46). Maye this is a better spot to do it? This time my outs are cleaner and it isn't a mono flop. This is my 1st donk bet of the game, villain is thinking and winning player but not great. I need this to work 33% of the time and I think he folds enough, and even if he calls I think his range will be weak because I expect him to raise his strong value hands. Moreover, I have overs + gutshot.I'm trying to put villains in spots where they would turn their hand face up and then I attack their weak ranges. If I think they would almost always raise me with strong value then whenever they call they don't have strong value. Therefore I play very aggressively against that range. This is the reason I started donking out, block betting, making weird bet sizings. I don't expect villains to react intelligently and have balanced ranges. I don't even think they are aware of their perceived range - the fact that they don't have strong hands in range. Does this all make sense? What do you think about my thought process in spots like this?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BTN/SB): t1400 70 BBsBB: t1600 80 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T Q Hero raises to t40, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t80 Flop: (t240) 7 8 J (2 players) BB bets t125, Hero raises to t280, Villain is a winning player. This is only the beginning of the match but I already can tell that he's playing standart 2p2 TAG style. This is hist 1st 3bet but since he's reg I expect him to have a wide 3betting range. And we're deep so I think my call with QTs is good. This flop hits my 3bet calling range, I can rep a lot of hands here very credibly. And he cbets only half pot on such a wet flop. I think he would bet larger with value hand because there are so many hands in my range that will continue. Therefore I attacked. His sizing is small for a value hand and I can rep credibly strong hands. I don't think I need to raise large to accomplish my goal. I'm risking 280 to take down the pot of 365. So I need to be right only 43%. And even if he calls I have outs. What do you think?
QJ hand - I think we still should just bet/call turn. He'll have plenty of worse Jx/9x/draws where betting is much better than checking. As played, I do like a small river bet, but t50 is way too small. You shouldn't be that scared of getting bluffed - only missed straight draws will do that.
K3s is a fine jam for 11.8bb and probably my default play (see the 12bb article). If he's very tight vs minraises, you can minraise/decide (it's OK if you have a close decision if he jams, that doesn't necessarily mean minraising is not an option. If he only plays a very low percentage of hands vs a minraise, it's probably the best play, even if the jamming decision is close).
Don't jam any two 13bb deep, but I definitely like Q3s given the read. The truth is that it's hard to know with the confidence you need to know to jam rather weak hands. A lot of people will justify a random shove with 95o here and just say "oh well bad luck" when they happen to call with a decent hand, forget it, and move on, but you really have to make sure the incidence of that is going to be very low before you widen your jamming range too much.
QT hand is interesting. You're right that a lot of regs will be rather exploitable with their c-bet sizing here and make it bigger with good but vulnerable hands. However, a lot of regs won't even c-bet this board. I still tend to like a flat better, because I think most regs have very low double barrel bluff frequencies in 3bet pots with these stack sizes on this type of board, so we can just bet turn when checked to and have the same result against a lot of hands. The other problem is the flush draw. It's bad times when we raise and he gets to jam over with his flush draw+equity and we just fold.
About QT hand, posts #53 abd #58.But when we flat our perceived range is quite weak - 7x, 8x, weak draws. We would never flat Jx, J7, J8, 78, T9, FD. So if villain is thinking he might see that and then it becomes much harder for us to represent big hands credibly on later streets. Like if 3rd club comes on turn, he checks and we bet - we don't have that many flushes in range. If turn comes blank card, he checks and we bet - what are we trying to say? That we called flop with weak hand and now are betting 7x or 8x for protection? When in reality I don't think that it would be correct to bet 7x or 8x there. Maybe I'm just trying to be too believable, but can it really be a bad thing. Another benefit from raising is that we're not letting him to realize his equity with his overcards. If we flat, turn comes K and he bets big - what would you do? We would have OESD, but Kx hits his range. I would be kind of lost... don't want to call huge bet with a draw and then fold to river bet if I miss, but I also don't know if it is correct to jam. Folding seems too weak with such a good equity.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1460 48.67 BBsHero (BB): t1540 51.33 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with A Q BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t360) 7 5 3 (2 players) Hero bets t180, BTN/SB raises to t390, Hero folds Final Pot: t720 BTN/SB shows J 8 (high card Jack) BTN/SB wins t720 Hand vs JacktShipper. Never played him before. Quite early in the game, my 2nd 3bet.I just don't think that this flop hits his 3bet calling range that much. He has some 7x in range but not that many. And I really doubt he has any 5x and 3x in range. I expect him to jam all pocket pairs peflop. So he's representing a very narrow value range. What should I do in spot like this? Pot is 930, he has 890 behind, I would be risking 1280 to win 930. I wanted to jam just because of the fact that I think I'm good kind of often. Is this a good enough reason? Calling is completely out of the question with these stack sizes, right? It's not fun when he has 7x, but even then I have 2 overs.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1250 25 BBsHero (BB): t1750 35 BBsPre Flop: (t75) Hero is BB with K 9 BTN/SB calls t25, Hero raises to t150, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t300) 6 T 7 (2 players) Hero bets t150, BTN/SB calls t150 Turn: (t600) J (2 players) Hero bets t390, BTN/SB folds Final Pot: t600 Hero mucks K 9 Hero wins t600 One more hand vs JacktShipper. His 2nd limp, I let him limp the 1st time. On the flop I would've got it in with gutshot + FD + over.On turn he has 950 left. Now I got also double gutshot. Bet / call is the only option, right? Can't check and give him free card. And his calling range should be weak so that should increase my FE on the turn. Also, my perceived range is strong, I have all the monsters in range. I definitely think that he folds all his weak pairs. So not betting would be a mistake if I think I could fold out a lot of better hands? And if he jams I'm committed and have to call.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1745 43.62 BBsHero (BB): t1255 31.38 BBsPre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with 7 8 BTN/SB raises to t80, Hero raises to t200, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t400) 6 2 2 (2 players) Hero bets t200, BTN/SB calls t200 Turn: (t800) 5 (2 players) Hero bets t855 all in, BTN/SB calls t855 River: (t2510) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in) Final Pot: t2510 BTN/SB shows J 6 (two pair, Sixes and Deuces) Hero shows 7 8 (a pair of Deuces) BTN/SB wins t2510 Villain is a winning player. He was opening 90%. This is my 3rd 3bet, he called 1st and folded to 2nd. Never saw a showdown. I don't expect him to hit this flop very often. I cbet half pot instead of smaller size because I wanted to discourage him from floating with overs. When he calls I still think he has plenty of overs in range. 5 on turn doesn't hit his range at all. I had pot size bet left so I jammed. I want as much FE as possible. Even if he calls I have equity with OESD. So I think this is the best play. What do you think?After seeing this hand what adjustments should I make vs him? Start 3betting more hands for value, like KT+, QJ+ and at the same time take out some weak hands out of my 3betting range? But I still have to 3bet lighter because he's opening almost any two.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BB): t1855 46.38 BBsBTN/SB: t1145 28.62 BBsPre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with A J BTN/SB calls t20, Hero raises to t120, BTN/SB calls t80 Flop: (t240) 9 2 Q (2 players) Hero bets t120, BTN/SB calls t120 Turn: (t480) A (2 players) Hero bets t290, BTN/SB raises to t580, Hero folds Final Pot: t1060 BTN/SB wins t1060 Villain is losing player. He's kind of loose both preflop and postflop. He can call down 3 barrels with floped MP if turn is undercard to his pair. He's not raising often postflop, but he did shove over my cbet with FD in 3bet pot. I think I have to bet / fold turn. There's value to be had from weak Qx, diamonds, maybe even SD, 9x or some strange Ax (he limp / called A5 16bb before, but also limp / shoved A2 18bb). When he min raises I think I have to fold. I don't see him doing this with draws as a semi-bluff. And he's definitely not doing this with any weaker value hand than flush. So then it's basically flush or air. But he wasn't bluffing all that much and there shouldn't be any air in his range on this turn. So given all this I think it's a right play, do you agree?
About QT hand, posts #53 abd #58.But when we flat our perceived range is quite weak - 7x, 8x, weak draws. We would never flat Jx, J7, J8, 78, T9, FD. So if villain is thinking he might see that and then it becomes much harder for us to represent big hands credibly on later streets. Like if 3rd club comes on turn, he checks and we bet - we don't have that many flushes in range. If turn comes blank card, he checks and we bet - what are we trying to say? That we called flop with weak hand and now are betting 7x or 8x for protection? When in reality I don't think that it would be correct to bet 7x or 8x there. Maybe I'm just trying to be too believable, but can it really be a bad thing. Another benefit from raising is that we're not letting him to realize his equity with his overcards. If we flat, turn comes K and he bets big - what would you do? We would have OESD, but Kx hits his range. I would be kind of lost... don't want to call huge bet with a draw and then fold to river bet if I miss, but I also don't know if it is correct to jam. Folding seems too weak with such a good equity. I'm not raising this flop with top pair or worse vs most players. Villain has to be pretty spazzy for you to raise QJ type hands here and be ahead of the range he will continue with. People are pretty damn nitty on these boards. Like Mers said, I'd expect an abc-ish type reg to not even cbet a lot of his air hands. You have reasonable equity and are getting direct odds to call flop. I would evaluate turn similarly, as I don't expect many people to barrel this boards with a very wide range. This can all change of course with different dynamics or villain tendencies, but I think vs the average thinking player my generalizations will be correct (thus making raising not so great).You seem concerned about balance (which I think is overrated, since the huge majority of villains wont exploit you here), so to be balanced just add some stronger hands that don't fair very well against his flop-stacking off range (QJ/KJ/JT/gutshot+fd)...a huge amount of the weaker end of your flatting range still has good equity to improve (T8/89/flushdraw/etc) so it's not like barreling you is goign to be so easy since really a good amount of turn/river cards will connect to different parts of your range.
AQ hand:In the past 2 hands I've reviewed, you are making A TON of assumptions based on very little real information about your opponents. Best case scenario usually in each situation (raising the QT, and 3bet jamming the AQ), your plays are going to be marginally good vs his overall range. Worst case scenario (i.e. he cbets a tight range on J87cc, he doesn't bluff-raise 753), your plays are going to be very -EV. Flatting the QT is +ev esp as part of the overall flatting range I described in the last paragraph of previous post, and cbetting slightly bigger (maybe 210ish to discourage bluffraises/floats) and folding to a raise relatively readless is going to be fine too. Avoid playing paranoid. Even if villains are exploiting you a bunch in either spot, if you are paying attention to frequencies, you will be able to adjust accordingly based on real information. So ya, would cbet AQ hand slightly bigger and fold to a raise. I just can't trust my opponent to not be flatting a bunch of a 68/7X/64s/QQ+ type stuff.
K9 hand:Plenty of equity, his overall range is prob pretty damn wide. I like cbet and bet/call turn. I think a cbet of 200ish sets up a little better bet/calling turn stack sizes for you (700 pot/900 stx)...could probably just jam the turn in that case honestly, tho it might get looked up a little lighter bc it looks drawy to most thinking players (so i am jamming my value range as well).
78 hand:I'm not too excited about jamming turn obv, but don't really see any other option. I actually really don't expect to be floated by overs on this board at these particular stack sizes (if it was deeper, i could see it a lot more). That said, I expect 6X hands to just jam flop usually to protect their equity (and hard for him to have much 6X in his range given what you know about him so far). Jamming with this equity can't be a big mistake really, I like it.I would expand my value 3bet range even lower than KT/QJ, down to T9s/J9o type stuff probably. If he is calling with J6s, he will be calling with a ton of hands that range will dominate (esp when you havent even been actively 3betting, so its not like it should be overly skeptical). A range of AT+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9s+, T9s, 22+ is 21% of hands...I'd say thats a more than healthy range vs a 90% opener.
AJ hand:When I 2 barrel and get minraised, I fold an unbelievably exploitable range. Obviously, I am paying close attention to the frequency of the situation. Until I randomly get a great hand I can continue with or just feel villains frequency is too high for him to be picking up so many big hands, I just fold fold fold. The average player just has such a nutted range here.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BTN/SB): t1710 57 BBsBB: t1290 43 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with A 5 Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30 Flop: (t120) A 9 T (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t360) 6 (2 players) BB checks, Villain is a slightly winning player. Still early in the match. He c/c 3 barrels before with TPWK on wet board and he 3bet me the 1st hand preflop. Should I bet this turn and if yes, then how much? It's kind of hard to tell what he could have. Ax that is scared of betting turn, FD, a hand that hit pair on turn and is checking because it has showdown value, or maybe even Tx or 9x. I really doubt he would check straight or 2pair. So if I take out all the strong value hands from his range then I think I should bet. By checking I would give a free card to a draws.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBB: t1825 60.83 BBsHero (BTN/SB): t1175 39.17 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with T K Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30 Flop: (t120) 5 4 5 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t360) T (2 players) BB bets t210, Hero calls t210 River: (t780) 9 (2 players) BB bets t1435 all in, Hero calls t785 all in Final Pot: t2350 BB shows 5 A (three of a kind, Fives) Hero shows T K (two pair, Tens and Fives) BB wins t2350 20 hands in, villain isn't good. He c/r me before on J63ss and bet close to pot on 5 turn. My line is fine given his c/r size, right? The main reason I'm just calling is because he c/r so small and I'm getting very goods odds to call. Had he c/r to 180 I would've reraised and got it in on the flop.If I reraise I'm not really folding out better hands and K high is the best hand if he is unpaired (except when he has Ax but most people float paired flops with A high instead of c/r). So by calling I'm letting him continue with his bluffs on future streets. The only downside I see that comes from flatting is that he would get it in with weaker / dominated draws on the flop.
Is it ok to jam over villain's 3x open with 33 if we are 20bb and he was limping, folding and raising only 24% OTB? I feel like I have no FE, but can I ever fold small pocket pair at this stage of the game? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.696% 46.10% 00.60% 1463435532 18971058.00 { 33 }Hand 1: 53.304% 52.71% 00.60% 1673233968 18971058.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }This is my equity vs 24% of hands. If I don't think he's ever folding than in theory it should be correct to fold, right? But I can't know that for sure. He still migth fold sometimes.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BB): t1820 30.33 BBsBTN/SB: t1180 19.67 BBsPre Flop: (t90) Hero is BB with 3 3 BTN/SB raises to t180, Hero raises to t1820 all in, BTN/SB calls t1000 all in Flop: (t2360) 8 Q T (2 players - 2 are all in) Turn: (t2360) K (2 players - 2 are all in) River: (t2360) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in) Final Pot: t2360 Hero shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes) BTN/SB shows A J (a straight, Ten to Ace) BTN/SB wins t2360 He was opening only 20%. Can I jam or I just have to fold? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.351% 43.73% 00.62% 1190562888 16925694.00 { 33 }Hand 1: 55.649% 55.03% 00.62% 1498149084 16925694.00 { 22+, A4s+, KTs+, QJs, T9s, A5o+, KJo+ }My equity vs 20% of hands. I really think he's not folding any one of these hands to a jam. If he was opening 30% and then calling with 20% (range above) then it would be +EV jam according to Insane Steve's spreadsheet. But if his opening range = his calling range then it's -EV. Do you ever fold instead of jamming small pocket pairs at this stack depth?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1160 14.50 BBsHero (BB): t1840 23 BBsPre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with 3 3 BTN/SB raises to t240, Hero raises to t1840 all in, BTN/SB calls t920 all in Flop: (t2320) 4 A Q (2 players - 2 are all in) Turn: (t2320) J (2 players - 2 are all in) River: (t2320) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in) Final Pot: t2320 BTN/SB shows 8 A (a pair of Aces) Hero shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes) BTN/SB wins t2320 Villain was opening 33% OTB. But his frequency seemed to decrease as stacks got shorter. Given this information, jam or fold? If he really is opening 33% at all stack depths then it's a jam, but if he opens 20% at shorter eff stacks then according to calculations it has to be a fold. It has to have a raise / folding range for me to jam profitably with small pocker pairs.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1560 78 BBsHero (BB): t1440 72 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with Q K BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) 2 A Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Turn: (t320) 3 (2 players) Hero bets t160, BTN/SB raises to t840, Hero folds Final Pot: t640 BTN/SB wins t640 Villain is a losing player. 3rd hand of the match. He opened 1st button 2x.Is checking this flop a mistake? I wanted to shove over his turn raise but decided to fold with not that much invested and because I have no real reads vs him.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBB: t2110 42.20 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t890 17.80 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with 4 A Hero raises to t100, BB raises to t2110 all in, 1 fold Final Pot: t200 BB wins t200 Villain 3bet shoved only 2 times before and called the rest. I think this is a fold. His 2 shoves were in the last 5 times I opened. So in my eyes that makes his 3rd shove even stronger. Is it ok to shove weak Ax if villain limps 16bb? He's limping 80%, raising 20%. I can't raise his limp, but also don't want to play OOP with weak Ax this shallow. I would shove A2-A6, raise / call A8+ and maybe check behind with A7. What do you think?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1880 23.50 BBsHero (BB): t1120 14 BBsPre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with Q 2 BTN/SB calls t40, Hero checks Flop: (t160) 8 3 A (2 players) Hero bets t80, BTN/SB calls t80 Turn: (t320) 5 (2 players) Hero bets t180, BTN/SB calls t180 River: (t680) 4 (2 players) Hero bets t240, What do you think about my river sizing? I bet small because I didn't think he was that strong and therefore would fold to a shove.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBB: t1355 27.10 BBsHero (BTN/SB): t1645 32.90 BBsPre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with A 4 Hero raises to t100, BB calls t50 Flop: (t200) 5 A K (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t100, BB calls t100 Turn: (t400) 8 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t250, BB calls t250 River: (t900) 6 (2 players) - VILLAIN HAS 905 CHIPS BB checks, Hero bets t450, Villain is winning player, but he wasn't playing well vs me, seemed tilted. This is my 1st 3 barrel, he folded to my 2 barrel not so long ago. I bet the same size before. Do you think I could've done better job with my sizings? Maybe bet 290 on turn so that pot would be bigger on river and I could shove more easily or should I just shove river as it is? I was thinking about it, but I didn't know if he would call with Kx, so I chose safer option and bet half pot. Do you think it's a mistake and I didn't set myself up for a river jam properly? What would you do in this spot? Another question - if you were in villain's place would you call my 2nd barrel on that board with KJ readless? I might be value betting worse Jx or barreling with clubs or hearts. But I also have Ax in range. So given all this would this be a good call?
Couple questions about EV graph.Is it true that in the long term red (EV) and green ($) graphs in HEM should converge? I mean, you might be running above or below EV but in the end luck should even out? Like flipping a coin.I'm asking because I'm 10bi above EV and I don't know if I should move up or stay at my stakes until EV and $ graphs converge? I have 65bi for the next level. I always used this strategy - never moved up until EV = $. I always did it because I thought that since I'm above EV now and in the long term luck will even out that means that I'm more likely to be running below EV and I didn't want to run below EV at higher stakes. What dou you think about this theory? Is it just BS? Should I just move up now?
I would bet/fold half pot on the turn with A5. We want to get value from draws and random pairs he may be doing this check/minraise with, we'll also check through the river which is just fine against his Ax hands.Totally agree with your thought process with the KThh. His range will be pretty polarized on this flop when he check/minraises, so much less value in 3betting flop. The bigger % of his range being 5x, the more we just want to flat. I'm not loving life on the river especially in light of that, but a call down is OK.Is 3x his standard open size? 24% out of how many hands? Some things to think about. I jam without ironclad reads that we have no fold equity and his opening % is very low. It will occasionally be a fold. Definitely jamming in that 14.5bb hand.Checking flop is perfectly reasonable with KQ, considering there are no bad turn cards at all. Weird once he raises but I would fold as well. I think I might check this turn once I check flop - there's really very little to get value out of (especially two streets of value) and not much need for protection, either, so bluffcatching might be our best bet at this point. But the two lines are close.Easy fold with A4o for 18bb. Folding A6o here as well. As per your question, definitely jam Ax over a limp (even 16bb deep) with those frequencies. I jam Ax over a limp readless at that stack depth.I prefer check/raising and getting it in with Q2hh rather than leading. Most people will bet this hand with a wide range and so we get more out of a check/raise than a lead. As played, I don't mind a non-shove on the river, but I'd make it a little more. 320 or so.A4 hand is interesting. We're not shallow enough that we can eliminate a lot of the Ax from his range, so I don't like shoving river. I don't think Kx calls turn and river enough compared with the better hands he shows up with. Against a bad player, I'd make a small bet, but as weird as it is, I think I'd actually check behind on this river. It's pretty damn thin considering there's not a single hand he's always calling two streets with, not to mention three. In villain's position, I don't like my life with KJ, specifically because most people don't barrel these boards nearly enough. I likely would call, though.
"Is it true that in the long term red (EV) and green ($) graphs in HEM should converge? I mean, you might be running above or below EV but in the end luck should even out? Like flipping a coin."So, if you're 10BI up in EV, after 10k games, you'll still be up 10BI in EV on average. Luck is memoryless - you're not supposed to gain or lose back EV lost or won.If you're flipping coins and heads goes up 10, over time, your heads % will get closer and closer to 50%. So 15/20 heads is 75%, but 5010/10000 heads is 50.1%, even though heads is up 10 in both cases."I'm asking because I'm 10bi above EV and I don't know if I should move up or stay at my stakes until EV and $ graphs converge? I have 65bi for the next level. I always used this strategy - never moved up until EV = $. I always did it because I thought that since I'm above EV now and in the long term luck will even out that means that I'm more likely to be running below EV and I didn't want to run below EV at higher stakes. What dou you think about this theory? Is it just BS? Should I just move up now? "Accordingly, running good at lower stakes has no impact on how you will run at higher stakes. Just move up :)
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBB: t2310 46.20 BBsHero (BTN/SB): t690 13.80 BBsPre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with K 6 Hero raises to t100, BB calls t50 Flop: (t200) 5 T Q (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t100, BB calls t100 Turn: (t400) 7 (2 players) BB checks, Hero checks River: (t400) A (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t490 all in, BB folds Final Pot: t400 Hero mucks K 6 Hero wins t400 Villain is a losing player. He checked river with trips before when I cbet flop and checked back turn. His perceived range is very weak. His most likely holding is weak pair (3rd pair at best) because he would've c/r flop with Qx and 3bet shoved Ax preflop. I have Ax in range when he doesn't. I'm representing very narrow value range, but at the same time my bluff needs to work ~50% of the time. I think I have to take a risk and jam because those 400 chips are very valuable at this point. I think he will fold Tx, 5x, K high often enough for this bluff to be +EV. I can't pass on +EV spot and wait for a better one at this point. Do you agree with this? In spots like this my thought process should be this? His range is weak, I can rep some better value hands, my bluff needs to work x%, if I think he will fold x or more I have to bluff.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBB: t1860 62 BBsHero (BTN/SB): t1140 38 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with T 9 Hero raises to t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Flop: (t240) T Q 6 (2 players) BB checks, Hero checks Turn: (t240) A (2 players) BB bets t120, Hero folds Final Pot: t240 BB wins t240 Villain is a losing player. This is his 3rd 2x 3bet. I called one time, he checked wet flop and bet turn half pot when I checked back.Should I bet this flop? I can't imagine I would be getting value out of worse hands by betting. But at the same time I think I have the best hand here a lot. I think he should bet his strong value hands on this flop. By betting I'm not letting villain realize his equity with any 2 cards. There are a lot of turns that I don't want to see.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t2125 70.83 BBs Hero (BB): t875 29.17 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with 7 T BTN/SB raises to t60, 1 fold Final Pot: t60 BTN/SB wins t60 I read your article on playing too tight OOP, but I still want to ask. Is this really a call? Villain opened 5 buttons, folded 3 buttons. This is his 6th open.
K6 hand:I love it. Nice! Like you said, his perceived range is v weak (probably TX and worse really...i'm expecting QX to c/r at these stacks). You actually rep this card well too. Makes perfect sense to cbet/chk/jam AX. I think if river was some low brick and you jammed you would get called by TX and maybe 5X since you rep so poorly. I really like this though and tbh it's my standard play in this spot until I see someone hero-calling too often (pretty rare). I actually dont think I would cbet the flop though...it connects to an oop flatting range so well at these stacks. I also cbet more like 40% of the pot at <20bb stacks...has to work less frequently (80/280 = 28.5% vs the 33% of 100/300...i dont think peoples ranges respond different enough for it to matter at all).But I love the river play, so be proud of yourself for this one. T9 hand:I like a flop bet, as I think you have best hand a huge % of the time. I'd just bet like 145 for protection/thin value...I do expect 99/88/Jc type stuff to call one time etc. Give up turn/river unimproved for sure.I think the turn fold is really good though.T7 hand:I'd call T7o and fold T6o. Interested to see what Mers thinks though.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BTN/SB): t1500 75 BBsBB: t1500 75 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T J Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20 Flop: (t80) 2 J 2 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t140, Hero calls t80 Turn: (t360) 6 (2 players) BB bets t160, Hero calls t160 River: (t680) K (2 players) BB bets t220, Hero folds Final Pot: t680 BB wins t680 1st hand of the match, villain is a losing player. Should I call his river bet readless? I have to be right ~20% of the time. Flush got there but I don't know if he would c/r FD and if he had a flush I doubt he would be betting river so small. Maybe he would be betting more on turn with 2x to get value out of FD and Jx. His small river bet looks like some thin value. Ofc it's just assumptions, I knew nothing about his sizings then. But since he's losing player I think I should've called. I remember thinking that I chop with all Jx (except AJ, but I don't think it's very likely) thefore I fold. But even then I'm risking 220 to win 560. I need to be right ~28%.
Turning your hand into a bluff and jamming only has to work 43.6% of the time also. If I do anything readless, it's probably that option. Due to his river betsizing I think it's a bluff extremely rarely...most people that bet tiny with huge hands aren't the type to play draws fast and c/r+barrel imo. I think you chop JX a ton, AJ/KJ make a lot of sense too. I'm sure KJ spitecalls a jam a decent amount, but you might get some folds too.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BB): t1440 72 BBsBTN/SB: t1560 78 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with Q 2 BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t360) J 9 8 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Turn: (t360) 8 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks River: (t360) A (2 players) Hero bets t160, Villain is a reg at 100s. It's still early but he was opening 80%. My 1st 3bet. I checked flop because it hits his defending range really hard - I doubt I have the necessary FE. I checked turn because villain could've checked back flop with 9x, 8x and I don't think he's folding. I bet river because it's a card that I can represent very well. I could've checked flop/turn with A high. I think he folds 8x and 9x sometimes, Kx always. I need to be right 30%. I'm not sure about the sizing. Maybe bigger bet would be better because it should discourage villain from calling with a wider range, he would be getting worse odds.
Wow, I never would've thought about jamming river. I was just deciding between folding or calling not realizing that I had this option. Moments like this remind me that I'm still stuck in that 2p2 mindset. I have to open up my mind :) Kind of AHA moment for me. This will help me in a lot of future spots. THANKS!
I have to be aware of my perceived range all the time. I could represent flush really well on that board given my line. It's almost as if it doesn't matter what my actual holding is - all that matters is my perceived range and how I think villain will react to it.
fwiw i meant "his river betsizing is a FLUSH extremely rarely"i actually do think it's a pure bluff pretty rarely as well though, but probably more often than a flush :). i just think its a ton of marginal sd value type stuff that cant face a jam.
I have to be aware of my perceived range all the time. I could represent flush really well on that board given my line. It's almost as if it doesn't matter what my actual holding is - all that matters is my perceived range and how I think villain will react to it. Well, your readless, so it's hard to tell how your opponent perceives your range since we don't know how he thinks about poker at all yet. I think versus the average opponent though, this is a super scary river jam and you prob get a fold from a good amount of stuff.Your hand does matter though. If we had KJ we would call, if we had AJ we would call. If the river was 3c and our kicker would play (and he can have more air) we can happily call. So it's a little more than "what is my perceived range, how will villain react to it", but it's certainly important to think about.
Q2dd hand:I like the 3bet pre, sizing is good, correct reads for it and good hand selection for 3bet bluffing. Flop check is good for reasons you mentioned. I like a bigger river bet, you rep a checked down AX really well, the average 3bet calling range just doesnt contain much AX also. Plus a lot of AX combos that would call a 3bet AJ-A8, i would expect to have bet this board already at some point...makes them less likely imo. I like a bet of about 80% pot.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1690 84.50 BBsHero (BB): t1310 65.50 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A 9 BTN/SB raises to t50, Hero calls t30 Flop: (t100) T 4 6 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Turn: (t420) 9 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t240, Villain had his stats blocked. He played standart TAG style, opened 80%+ OTB, cbet a lot. It's a dry flop, I expect him to cbet with his whole range. My A high is definitely good here a lot. I decided to c/r instead of c/c because I didn't want to give him a chance to barrel me off my hand. I expect him to fire most of the time given his playing style and how weak my c/c range is. I'm risking 160 to win 160 so I need my bluff to work only half the time and that doesn't even take into account all those times when I improve to the best hand. My plan was to barrel on a lot of turns if he calls to fold out 4x and 6x which he has in range given his high opening %. But then when I hit a pair I kind of got lost. Now I'm ahead vs a big part of his range but at the same time I don't know if I'll get any value by betting. There are some hands like 89, 79 but I don't think he has a lot of them in range. So I checked. But when he bet it's kind of a weird spot. I don't know if random villain would bet this turn with anything but TP+. So my questions are:What do you think about my play on flop and my thought process?What would you do on turn? Was checking a mistake? If I had decided to c/c this flop instead of c/r and villain fired this turn - would it be a fold or call given what I know about him?
I think a check/raise with A9 can be a fine way continue against an opponent who opens and c-bets wide, especially if your opponent double barrels a good bit (otherwise I'd just check/call).I do think checking turn is an error. I'd bet 200 for value. If you just c/c flop, I think you have to call another street when the nine peels.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1470 49 BBsHero (BB): t1530 51 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with K 8 BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t30 Flop: (t120) 3 9 Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Turn: (t480) J (2 players) - 1230 effective stack Villain is a losing player, still early in the match. He limp / called T8 before, folded some buttons and raised some. First time I'm calling his open, so I have no reads on how he plays postflop in position. c/r and get it on the flop is standart, right? What should I do on this turn? I doubt I have enough equity to bet/call turn. I picked up a gutshot, but at the same time I may no longer have K as an out. J on the turn hits / improves some hands in his range. He's not folding Tx, Jx, FD to turn barrel. I was thinking about couple options:1) c/c - he might check back 9x, Tx, FD - hands that aren't folding if I bet so I save some chips. 2) bet small to set my own price for the river. If I bet big and he shoves I have to fold.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1750 58.33 BBsHero (BB): t1250 41.67 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with J K BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) J A 8 (2 players) Hero bets t160, BTN/SB calls t160 Turn: (t640) 7 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks River: (t640) 5 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Villain is a losing player. Can I bet this turn for value or is it too thin? I think he has more weaker hands in range that can call than Ax. There are FD, SD, weaker pairs. What do you think about half pot bet?
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t1410 70.50 BBsHero (BB): t1590 79.50 BBsPre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 9 8 BTN/SB raises to t40, Hero calls t20 Flop: (t80) 2 9 Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t200) 5 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100, Villain is a losing player.First time I called his open. I have no information about his barreling range and frequency. Do you call or fold this turn? What is the worst 9x that you would consider calling? I think 98 is a bit too weak. He's definitely betting Qx, strong 9x, maybe FD, SD. But I doubt he's value betting worse 9x. So in that case I would only be beating draws, but they have good equity vs my hand and even if they miss on the river he might fire 3rd barrel and I can't call 3rd barrel readless. So I think folding is best with this hand.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterBTN/SB: t2130 42.60 BBsHero (BB): t870 17.40 BBsPre Flop: (t75) Hero is BB with J Q BTN/SB raises to t100, Hero calls t50 Flop: (t200) 2 9 K (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100,Villain is a losing player, He cbet almost always, Fold flop, right? If effective stacks were deeper would you prefer c/c, c/r or c/f? Why? If villain is barreling a lot then I think c/r is the best. If he gives up with air on turn undercards then I think it's ok to call since he will shutdown with air on all cards lower than 9. And I not only have outs but I also can bluff river if he checks back turn.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BTN/SB): t1115 27.88 BBsBB: t1885 47.12 BBsPre Flop: (t60) Hero is BTN/SB with 9 8 Hero raises to t80, BB calls t40 Flop: (t160) 9 5 Q (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB calls t80 Turn: (t320) 4 (2 players) BB checks, Bet turn half pot for value from FD, SD, weaker pairs and then check back most rivers? 96 would be a check or would you still bet it? What do you think about betting less than half pot?
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker VideosHand History ConverterHero (BB): t1600 53.33 BBsBTN/SB: t1400 46.67 BBsPre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with K J BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) 4 8 J (2 players) Hero bets t190, BTN/SB calls t190 Turn: (t700) 9 (2 players) - 1050 effective stack Hero bets t450, BTN/SB calls t450 River: (t1600) Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t600 all in, Hero folds Final Pot: t1600 BTN/SB shows 7 6 (high card Queen) BTN/SB wins t1600 Villain is a losing player.Is my line good? He has to be bluffing at least 21% for me to call. I don't think I can call his river jam. FD missed, but it's just so easy for him to have Tx. I don't think he's value betting anything worse than straight.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1315 13.15 BBs Hero (BB): t1685 16.85 BBs Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BB with 3 Q BTN/SB calls t50, Hero raises to t1685 all in, 1 fold Final Pot: t200 Hero mucks 3 Q Hero wins t200 I noticed that villain's limping range 10-15bb is weak and he was min raising his strong hands. Thefore I expected him to fold almost always to my shove. Is this a spot where I should be jamming close to any two (if I have this read)? Ofc he will adjust at some point after seeing my constant attacks but I'm well aware of my image and I won't shove blindly if I feel like he might be starting to trap me. This was the first time when I attacked his limp by shoving at this stack depth.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BB): t1615 80.75 BBs BTN/SB: t1385 69.25 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 9 T BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t40 Flop: (t120) 3 7 6 (2 players) Hero bets t60, BTN/SB folds Final Pot: t120 Hero mucks 9 T Hero wins t120 You said you didn't like my donk bet with J9hh on 567sss (post #46). Maye this is a better spot to do it? This time my outs are cleaner and it isn't a mono flop. This is my 1st donk bet of the game, villain is thinking and winning player but not great. I need this to work 33% of the time and I think he folds enough, and even if he calls I think his range will be weak because I expect him to raise his strong value hands. Moreover, I have overs + gutshot.I'm trying to put villains in spots where they would turn their hand face up and then I attack their weak ranges. If I think they would almost always raise me with strong value then whenever they call they don't have strong value. Therefore I play very aggressively against that range. This is the reason I started donking out, block betting, making weird bet sizings. I don't expect villains to react intelligently and have balanced ranges. I don't even think they are aware of their perceived range - the fact that they don't have strong hands in range. Does this all make sense? What do you think about my thought process in spots like this?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BTN/SB): t1400 70 BBs BB: t1600 80 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T Q Hero raises to t40, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t80 Flop: (t240) 7 8 J (2 players) BB bets t125, Hero raises to t280, Villain is a winning player. This is only the beginning of the match but I already can tell that he's playing standart 2p2 TAG style. This is hist 1st 3bet but since he's reg I expect him to have a wide 3betting range. And we're deep so I think my call with QTs is good. This flop hits my 3bet calling range, I can rep a lot of hands here very credibly. And he cbets only half pot on such a wet flop. I think he would bet larger with value hand because there are so many hands in my range that will continue. Therefore I attacked. His sizing is small for a value hand and I can rep credibly strong hands. I don't think I need to raise large to accomplish my goal. I'm risking 280 to take down the pot of 365. So I need to be right only 43%. And even if he calls I have outs. What do you think?
QJ hand - I think we still should just bet/call turn. He'll have plenty of worse Jx/9x/draws where betting is much better than checking. As played, I do like a small river bet, but t50 is way too small. You shouldn't be that scared of getting bluffed - only missed straight draws will do that.
K3s is a fine jam for 11.8bb and probably my default play (see the 12bb article). If he's very tight vs minraises, you can minraise/decide (it's OK if you have a close decision if he jams, that doesn't necessarily mean minraising is not an option. If he only plays a very low percentage of hands vs a minraise, it's probably the best play, even if the jamming decision is close).
Don't jam any two 13bb deep, but I definitely like Q3s given the read. The truth is that it's hard to know with the confidence you need to know to jam rather weak hands. A lot of people will justify a random shove with 95o here and just say "oh well bad luck" when they happen to call with a decent hand, forget it, and move on, but you really have to make sure the incidence of that is going to be very low before you widen your jamming range too much.
Definitely like the T9 donk a lot better. I like your thought process a lot about searching for edge rather than just autopiloting.
QT hand is interesting. You're right that a lot of regs will be rather exploitable with their c-bet sizing here and make it bigger with good but vulnerable hands. However, a lot of regs won't even c-bet this board. I still tend to like a flat better, because I think most regs have very low double barrel bluff frequencies in 3bet pots with these stack sizes on this type of board, so we can just bet turn when checked to and have the same result against a lot of hands. The other problem is the flush draw. It's bad times when we raise and he gets to jam over with his flush draw+equity and we just fold.
About QT hand, posts #53 abd #58.But when we flat our perceived range is quite weak - 7x, 8x, weak draws. We would never flat Jx, J7, J8, 78, T9, FD. So if villain is thinking he might see that and then it becomes much harder for us to represent big hands credibly on later streets. Like if 3rd club comes on turn, he checks and we bet - we don't have that many flushes in range. If turn comes blank card, he checks and we bet - what are we trying to say? That we called flop with weak hand and now are betting 7x or 8x for protection? When in reality I don't think that it would be correct to bet 7x or 8x there. Maybe I'm just trying to be too believable, but can it really be a bad thing. Another benefit from raising is that we're not letting him to realize his equity with his overcards. If we flat, turn comes K and he bets big - what would you do? We would have OESD, but Kx hits his range. I would be kind of lost... don't want to call huge bet with a draw and then fold to river bet if I miss, but I also don't know if it is correct to jam. Folding seems too weak with such a good equity.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1460 48.67 BBs Hero (BB): t1540 51.33 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with A Q BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t360) 7 5 3 (2 players) Hero bets t180, BTN/SB raises to t390, Hero folds Final Pot: t720 BTN/SB shows J 8 (high card Jack) BTN/SB wins t720 Hand vs JacktShipper. Never played him before. Quite early in the game, my 2nd 3bet.I just don't think that this flop hits his 3bet calling range that much. He has some 7x in range but not that many. And I really doubt he has any 5x and 3x in range. I expect him to jam all pocket pairs peflop. So he's representing a very narrow value range. What should I do in spot like this? Pot is 930, he has 890 behind, I would be risking 1280 to win 930. I wanted to jam just because of the fact that I think I'm good kind of often. Is this a good enough reason? Calling is completely out of the question with these stack sizes, right? It's not fun when he has 7x, but even then I have 2 overs.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1250 25 BBs Hero (BB): t1750 35 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BB with K 9 BTN/SB calls t25, Hero raises to t150, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t300) 6 T 7 (2 players) Hero bets t150, BTN/SB calls t150 Turn: (t600) J (2 players) Hero bets t390, BTN/SB folds Final Pot: t600 Hero mucks K 9 Hero wins t600 One more hand vs JacktShipper. His 2nd limp, I let him limp the 1st time. On the flop I would've got it in with gutshot + FD + over.On turn he has 950 left. Now I got also double gutshot. Bet / call is the only option, right? Can't check and give him free card. And his calling range should be weak so that should increase my FE on the turn. Also, my perceived range is strong, I have all the monsters in range. I definitely think that he folds all his weak pairs. So not betting would be a mistake if I think I could fold out a lot of better hands? And if he jams I'm committed and have to call.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1745 43.62 BBs Hero (BB): t1255 31.38 BBs Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with 7 8 BTN/SB raises to t80, Hero raises to t200, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t400) 6 2 2 (2 players) Hero bets t200, BTN/SB calls t200 Turn: (t800) 5 (2 players) Hero bets t855 all in, BTN/SB calls t855 River: (t2510) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in) Final Pot: t2510 BTN/SB shows J 6 (two pair, Sixes and Deuces) Hero shows 7 8 (a pair of Deuces) BTN/SB wins t2510 Villain is a winning player. He was opening 90%. This is my 3rd 3bet, he called 1st and folded to 2nd. Never saw a showdown. I don't expect him to hit this flop very often. I cbet half pot instead of smaller size because I wanted to discourage him from floating with overs. When he calls I still think he has plenty of overs in range. 5 on turn doesn't hit his range at all. I had pot size bet left so I jammed. I want as much FE as possible. Even if he calls I have equity with OESD. So I think this is the best play. What do you think?After seeing this hand what adjustments should I make vs him? Start 3betting more hands for value, like KT+, QJ+ and at the same time take out some weak hands out of my 3betting range? But I still have to 3bet lighter because he's opening almost any two.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BB): t1855 46.38 BBs BTN/SB: t1145 28.62 BBs Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with A J BTN/SB calls t20, Hero raises to t120, BTN/SB calls t80 Flop: (t240) 9 2 Q (2 players) Hero bets t120, BTN/SB calls t120 Turn: (t480) A (2 players) Hero bets t290, BTN/SB raises to t580, Hero folds Final Pot: t1060 BTN/SB wins t1060 Villain is losing player. He's kind of loose both preflop and postflop. He can call down 3 barrels with floped MP if turn is undercard to his pair. He's not raising often postflop, but he did shove over my cbet with FD in 3bet pot. I think I have to bet / fold turn. There's value to be had from weak Qx, diamonds, maybe even SD, 9x or some strange Ax (he limp / called A5 16bb before, but also limp / shoved A2 18bb). When he min raises I think I have to fold. I don't see him doing this with draws as a semi-bluff. And he's definitely not doing this with any weaker value hand than flush. So then it's basically flush or air. But he wasn't bluffing all that much and there shouldn't be any air in his range on this turn. So given all this I think it's a right play, do you agree?
About QT hand, posts #53 abd #58.But when we flat our perceived range is quite weak - 7x, 8x, weak draws. We would never flat Jx, J7, J8, 78, T9, FD. So if villain is thinking he might see that and then it becomes much harder for us to represent big hands credibly on later streets. Like if 3rd club comes on turn, he checks and we bet - we don't have that many flushes in range. If turn comes blank card, he checks and we bet - what are we trying to say? That we called flop with weak hand and now are betting 7x or 8x for protection? When in reality I don't think that it would be correct to bet 7x or 8x there. Maybe I'm just trying to be too believable, but can it really be a bad thing. Another benefit from raising is that we're not letting him to realize his equity with his overcards. If we flat, turn comes K and he bets big - what would you do? We would have OESD, but Kx hits his range. I would be kind of lost... don't want to call huge bet with a draw and then fold to river bet if I miss, but I also don't know if it is correct to jam. Folding seems too weak with such a good equity. I'm not raising this flop with top pair or worse vs most players. Villain has to be pretty spazzy for you to raise QJ type hands here and be ahead of the range he will continue with. People are pretty damn nitty on these boards. Like Mers said, I'd expect an abc-ish type reg to not even cbet a lot of his air hands. You have reasonable equity and are getting direct odds to call flop. I would evaluate turn similarly, as I don't expect many people to barrel this boards with a very wide range. This can all change of course with different dynamics or villain tendencies, but I think vs the average thinking player my generalizations will be correct (thus making raising not so great).You seem concerned about balance (which I think is overrated, since the huge majority of villains wont exploit you here), so to be balanced just add some stronger hands that don't fair very well against his flop-stacking off range (QJ/KJ/JT/gutshot+fd)...a huge amount of the weaker end of your flatting range still has good equity to improve (T8/89/flushdraw/etc) so it's not like barreling you is goign to be so easy since really a good amount of turn/river cards will connect to different parts of your range.
AQ hand:In the past 2 hands I've reviewed, you are making A TON of assumptions based on very little real information about your opponents. Best case scenario usually in each situation (raising the QT, and 3bet jamming the AQ), your plays are going to be marginally good vs his overall range. Worst case scenario (i.e. he cbets a tight range on J87cc, he doesn't bluff-raise 753), your plays are going to be very -EV. Flatting the QT is +ev esp as part of the overall flatting range I described in the last paragraph of previous post, and cbetting slightly bigger (maybe 210ish to discourage bluffraises/floats) and folding to a raise relatively readless is going to be fine too. Avoid playing paranoid. Even if villains are exploiting you a bunch in either spot, if you are paying attention to frequencies, you will be able to adjust accordingly based on real information. So ya, would cbet AQ hand slightly bigger and fold to a raise. I just can't trust my opponent to not be flatting a bunch of a 68/7X/64s/QQ+ type stuff.
K9 hand:Plenty of equity, his overall range is prob pretty damn wide. I like cbet and bet/call turn. I think a cbet of 200ish sets up a little better bet/calling turn stack sizes for you (700 pot/900 stx)...could probably just jam the turn in that case honestly, tho it might get looked up a little lighter bc it looks drawy to most thinking players (so i am jamming my value range as well).
78 hand:I'm not too excited about jamming turn obv, but don't really see any other option. I actually really don't expect to be floated by overs on this board at these particular stack sizes (if it was deeper, i could see it a lot more). That said, I expect 6X hands to just jam flop usually to protect their equity (and hard for him to have much 6X in his range given what you know about him so far). Jamming with this equity can't be a big mistake really, I like it.I would expand my value 3bet range even lower than KT/QJ, down to T9s/J9o type stuff probably. If he is calling with J6s, he will be calling with a ton of hands that range will dominate (esp when you havent even been actively 3betting, so its not like it should be overly skeptical). A range of AT+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9s+, T9s, 22+ is 21% of hands...I'd say thats a more than healthy range vs a 90% opener.
AJ hand:When I 2 barrel and get minraised, I fold an unbelievably exploitable range. Obviously, I am paying close attention to the frequency of the situation. Until I randomly get a great hand I can continue with or just feel villains frequency is too high for him to be picking up so many big hands, I just fold fold fold. The average player just has such a nutted range here.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BTN/SB): t1710 57 BBs BB: t1290 43 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with A 5 Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30 Flop: (t120) A 9 T (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t360) 6 (2 players) BB checks, Villain is a slightly winning player. Still early in the match. He c/c 3 barrels before with TPWK on wet board and he 3bet me the 1st hand preflop. Should I bet this turn and if yes, then how much? It's kind of hard to tell what he could have. Ax that is scared of betting turn, FD, a hand that hit pair on turn and is checking because it has showdown value, or maybe even Tx or 9x. I really doubt he would check straight or 2pair. So if I take out all the strong value hands from his range then I think I should bet. By checking I would give a free card to a draws.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: t1825 60.83 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t1175 39.17 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with T K Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30 Flop: (t120) 5 4 5 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t360) T (2 players) BB bets t210, Hero calls t210 River: (t780) 9 (2 players) BB bets t1435 all in, Hero calls t785 all in Final Pot: t2350 BB shows 5 A (three of a kind, Fives) Hero shows T K (two pair, Tens and Fives) BB wins t2350 20 hands in, villain isn't good. He c/r me before on J63ss and bet close to pot on 5 turn. My line is fine given his c/r size, right? The main reason I'm just calling is because he c/r so small and I'm getting very goods odds to call. Had he c/r to 180 I would've reraised and got it in on the flop.If I reraise I'm not really folding out better hands and K high is the best hand if he is unpaired (except when he has Ax but most people float paired flops with A high instead of c/r). So by calling I'm letting him continue with his bluffs on future streets. The only downside I see that comes from flatting is that he would get it in with weaker / dominated draws on the flop.
Is it ok to jam over villain's 3x open with 33 if we are 20bb and he was limping, folding and raising only 24% OTB? I feel like I have no FE, but can I ever fold small pocket pair at this stage of the game? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.696% 46.10% 00.60% 1463435532 18971058.00 { 33 }Hand 1: 53.304% 52.71% 00.60% 1673233968 18971058.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }This is my equity vs 24% of hands. If I don't think he's ever folding than in theory it should be correct to fold, right? But I can't know that for sure. He still migth fold sometimes.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BB): t1820 30.33 BBs BTN/SB: t1180 19.67 BBs Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BB with 3 3 BTN/SB raises to t180, Hero raises to t1820 all in, BTN/SB calls t1000 all in Flop: (t2360) 8 Q T (2 players - 2 are all in) Turn: (t2360) K (2 players - 2 are all in) River: (t2360) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in) Final Pot: t2360 Hero shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes) BTN/SB shows A J (a straight, Ten to Ace) BTN/SB wins t2360 He was opening only 20%. Can I jam or I just have to fold? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.351% 43.73% 00.62% 1190562888 16925694.00 { 33 }Hand 1: 55.649% 55.03% 00.62% 1498149084 16925694.00 { 22+, A4s+, KTs+, QJs, T9s, A5o+, KJo+ }My equity vs 20% of hands. I really think he's not folding any one of these hands to a jam. If he was opening 30% and then calling with 20% (range above) then it would be +EV jam according to Insane Steve's spreadsheet. But if his opening range = his calling range then it's -EV. Do you ever fold instead of jamming small pocket pairs at this stack depth?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1160 14.50 BBs Hero (BB): t1840 23 BBs Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with 3 3 BTN/SB raises to t240, Hero raises to t1840 all in, BTN/SB calls t920 all in Flop: (t2320) 4 A Q (2 players - 2 are all in) Turn: (t2320) J (2 players - 2 are all in) River: (t2320) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in) Final Pot: t2320 BTN/SB shows 8 A (a pair of Aces) Hero shows 3 3 (a pair of Threes) BTN/SB wins t2320 Villain was opening 33% OTB. But his frequency seemed to decrease as stacks got shorter. Given this information, jam or fold? If he really is opening 33% at all stack depths then it's a jam, but if he opens 20% at shorter eff stacks then according to calculations it has to be a fold. It has to have a raise / folding range for me to jam profitably with small pocker pairs.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1560 78 BBs Hero (BB): t1440 72 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with Q K BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) 2 A Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Turn: (t320) 3 (2 players) Hero bets t160, BTN/SB raises to t840, Hero folds Final Pot: t640 BTN/SB wins t640 Villain is a losing player. 3rd hand of the match. He opened 1st button 2x.Is checking this flop a mistake? I wanted to shove over his turn raise but decided to fold with not that much invested and because I have no real reads vs him.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: t2110 42.20 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t890 17.80 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with 4 A Hero raises to t100, BB raises to t2110 all in, 1 fold Final Pot: t200 BB wins t200 Villain 3bet shoved only 2 times before and called the rest. I think this is a fold. His 2 shoves were in the last 5 times I opened. So in my eyes that makes his 3rd shove even stronger. Is it ok to shove weak Ax if villain limps 16bb? He's limping 80%, raising 20%. I can't raise his limp, but also don't want to play OOP with weak Ax this shallow. I would shove A2-A6, raise / call A8+ and maybe check behind with A7. What do you think?
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1880 23.50 BBs Hero (BB): t1120 14 BBs Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with Q 2 BTN/SB calls t40, Hero checks Flop: (t160) 8 3 A (2 players) Hero bets t80, BTN/SB calls t80 Turn: (t320) 5 (2 players) Hero bets t180, BTN/SB calls t180 River: (t680) 4 (2 players) Hero bets t240, What do you think about my river sizing? I bet small because I didn't think he was that strong and therefore would fold to a shove.
Poker Stars $57.67+$2.33 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: t1355 27.10 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t1645 32.90 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with A 4 Hero raises to t100, BB calls t50 Flop: (t200) 5 A K (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t100, BB calls t100 Turn: (t400) 8 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t250, BB calls t250 River: (t900) 6 (2 players) - VILLAIN HAS 905 CHIPS BB checks, Hero bets t450, Villain is winning player, but he wasn't playing well vs me, seemed tilted. This is my 1st 3 barrel, he folded to my 2 barrel not so long ago. I bet the same size before. Do you think I could've done better job with my sizings? Maybe bet 290 on turn so that pot would be bigger on river and I could shove more easily or should I just shove river as it is? I was thinking about it, but I didn't know if he would call with Kx, so I chose safer option and bet half pot. Do you think it's a mistake and I didn't set myself up for a river jam properly? What would you do in this spot? Another question - if you were in villain's place would you call my 2nd barrel on that board with KJ readless? I might be value betting worse Jx or barreling with clubs or hearts. But I also have Ax in range. So given all this would this be a good call?
Couple questions about EV graph.Is it true that in the long term red (EV) and green ($) graphs in HEM should converge? I mean, you might be running above or below EV but in the end luck should even out? Like flipping a coin.I'm asking because I'm 10bi above EV and I don't know if I should move up or stay at my stakes until EV and $ graphs converge? I have 65bi for the next level. I always used this strategy - never moved up until EV = $. I always did it because I thought that since I'm above EV now and in the long term luck will even out that means that I'm more likely to be running below EV and I didn't want to run below EV at higher stakes. What dou you think about this theory? Is it just BS? Should I just move up now?
I would bet/fold half pot on the turn with A5. We want to get value from draws and random pairs he may be doing this check/minraise with, we'll also check through the river which is just fine against his Ax hands.Totally agree with your thought process with the KThh. His range will be pretty polarized on this flop when he check/minraises, so much less value in 3betting flop. The bigger % of his range being 5x, the more we just want to flat. I'm not loving life on the river especially in light of that, but a call down is OK.Is 3x his standard open size? 24% out of how many hands? Some things to think about. I jam without ironclad reads that we have no fold equity and his opening % is very low. It will occasionally be a fold. Definitely jamming in that 14.5bb hand.Checking flop is perfectly reasonable with KQ, considering there are no bad turn cards at all. Weird once he raises but I would fold as well. I think I might check this turn once I check flop - there's really very little to get value out of (especially two streets of value) and not much need for protection, either, so bluffcatching might be our best bet at this point. But the two lines are close.Easy fold with A4o for 18bb. Folding A6o here as well. As per your question, definitely jam Ax over a limp (even 16bb deep) with those frequencies. I jam Ax over a limp readless at that stack depth.I prefer check/raising and getting it in with Q2hh rather than leading. Most people will bet this hand with a wide range and so we get more out of a check/raise than a lead. As played, I don't mind a non-shove on the river, but I'd make it a little more. 320 or so.A4 hand is interesting. We're not shallow enough that we can eliminate a lot of the Ax from his range, so I don't like shoving river. I don't think Kx calls turn and river enough compared with the better hands he shows up with. Against a bad player, I'd make a small bet, but as weird as it is, I think I'd actually check behind on this river. It's pretty damn thin considering there's not a single hand he's always calling two streets with, not to mention three. In villain's position, I don't like my life with KJ, specifically because most people don't barrel these boards nearly enough. I likely would call, though.
"Is it true that in the long term red (EV) and green ($) graphs in HEM should converge? I mean, you might be running above or below EV but in the end luck should even out? Like flipping a coin."So, if you're 10BI up in EV, after 10k games, you'll still be up 10BI in EV on average. Luck is memoryless - you're not supposed to gain or lose back EV lost or won.If you're flipping coins and heads goes up 10, over time, your heads % will get closer and closer to 50%. So 15/20 heads is 75%, but 5010/10000 heads is 50.1%, even though heads is up 10 in both cases."I'm asking because I'm 10bi above EV and I don't know if I should move up or stay at my stakes until EV and $ graphs converge? I have 65bi for the next level. I always used this strategy - never moved up until EV = $. I always did it because I thought that since I'm above EV now and in the long term luck will even out that means that I'm more likely to be running below EV and I didn't want to run below EV at higher stakes. What dou you think about this theory? Is it just BS? Should I just move up now? "Accordingly, running good at lower stakes has no impact on how you will run at higher stakes. Just move up :)
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: t2310 46.20 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t690 13.80 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BTN/SB with K 6 Hero raises to t100, BB calls t50 Flop: (t200) 5 T Q (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t100, BB calls t100 Turn: (t400) 7 (2 players) BB checks, Hero checks River: (t400) A (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t490 all in, BB folds Final Pot: t400 Hero mucks K 6 Hero wins t400 Villain is a losing player. He checked river with trips before when I cbet flop and checked back turn. His perceived range is very weak. His most likely holding is weak pair (3rd pair at best) because he would've c/r flop with Qx and 3bet shoved Ax preflop. I have Ax in range when he doesn't. I'm representing very narrow value range, but at the same time my bluff needs to work ~50% of the time. I think I have to take a risk and jam because those 400 chips are very valuable at this point. I think he will fold Tx, 5x, K high often enough for this bluff to be +EV. I can't pass on +EV spot and wait for a better one at this point. Do you agree with this? In spots like this my thought process should be this? His range is weak, I can rep some better value hands, my bluff needs to work x%, if I think he will fold x or more I have to bluff.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: t1860 62 BBs Hero (BTN/SB): t1140 38 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with T 9 Hero raises to t60, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t60 Flop: (t240) T Q 6 (2 players) BB checks, Hero checks Turn: (t240) A (2 players) BB bets t120, Hero folds Final Pot: t240 BB wins t240 Villain is a losing player. This is his 3rd 2x 3bet. I called one time, he checked wet flop and bet turn half pot when I checked back.Should I bet this flop? I can't imagine I would be getting value out of worse hands by betting. But at the same time I think I have the best hand here a lot. I think he should bet his strong value hands on this flop. By betting I'm not letting villain realize his equity with any 2 cards. There are a lot of turns that I don't want to see.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t2125 70.83 BBs Hero (BB): t875 29.17 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with 7 T BTN/SB raises to t60, 1 fold Final Pot: t60 BTN/SB wins t60 I read your article on playing too tight OOP, but I still want to ask. Is this really a call? Villain opened 5 buttons, folded 3 buttons. This is his 6th open.
K6 hand:I love it. Nice! Like you said, his perceived range is v weak (probably TX and worse really...i'm expecting QX to c/r at these stacks). You actually rep this card well too. Makes perfect sense to cbet/chk/jam AX. I think if river was some low brick and you jammed you would get called by TX and maybe 5X since you rep so poorly. I really like this though and tbh it's my standard play in this spot until I see someone hero-calling too often (pretty rare). I actually dont think I would cbet the flop though...it connects to an oop flatting range so well at these stacks. I also cbet more like 40% of the pot at <20bb stacks...has to work less frequently (80/280 = 28.5% vs the 33% of 100/300...i dont think peoples ranges respond different enough for it to matter at all).But I love the river play, so be proud of yourself for this one. T9 hand:I like a flop bet, as I think you have best hand a huge % of the time. I'd just bet like 145 for protection/thin value...I do expect 99/88/Jc type stuff to call one time etc. Give up turn/river unimproved for sure.I think the turn fold is really good though.T7 hand:I'd call T7o and fold T6o. Interested to see what Mers thinks though.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BTN/SB): t1500 75 BBs BB: t1500 75 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with T J Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20 Flop: (t80) 2 J 2 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t60, BB raises to t140, Hero calls t80 Turn: (t360) 6 (2 players) BB bets t160, Hero calls t160 River: (t680) K (2 players) BB bets t220, Hero folds Final Pot: t680 BB wins t680 1st hand of the match, villain is a losing player. Should I call his river bet readless? I have to be right ~20% of the time. Flush got there but I don't know if he would c/r FD and if he had a flush I doubt he would be betting river so small. Maybe he would be betting more on turn with 2x to get value out of FD and Jx. His small river bet looks like some thin value. Ofc it's just assumptions, I knew nothing about his sizings then. But since he's losing player I think I should've called. I remember thinking that I chop with all Jx (except AJ, but I don't think it's very likely) thefore I fold. But even then I'm risking 220 to win 560. I need to be right ~28%.
Turning your hand into a bluff and jamming only has to work 43.6% of the time also. If I do anything readless, it's probably that option. Due to his river betsizing I think it's a bluff extremely rarely...most people that bet tiny with huge hands aren't the type to play draws fast and c/r+barrel imo. I think you chop JX a ton, AJ/KJ make a lot of sense too. I'm sure KJ spitecalls a jam a decent amount, but you might get some folds too.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BB): t1440 72 BBs BTN/SB: t1560 78 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with Q 2 BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Flop: (t360) J 9 8 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Turn: (t360) 8 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks River: (t360) A (2 players) Hero bets t160, Villain is a reg at 100s. It's still early but he was opening 80%. My 1st 3bet. I checked flop because it hits his defending range really hard - I doubt I have the necessary FE. I checked turn because villain could've checked back flop with 9x, 8x and I don't think he's folding. I bet river because it's a card that I can represent very well. I could've checked flop/turn with A high. I think he folds 8x and 9x sometimes, Kx always. I need to be right 30%. I'm not sure about the sizing. Maybe bigger bet would be better because it should discourage villain from calling with a wider range, he would be getting worse odds.
Wow, I never would've thought about jamming river. I was just deciding between folding or calling not realizing that I had this option. Moments like this remind me that I'm still stuck in that 2p2 mindset. I have to open up my mind :) Kind of AHA moment for me. This will help me in a lot of future spots. THANKS!
I have to be aware of my perceived range all the time. I could represent flush really well on that board given my line. It's almost as if it doesn't matter what my actual holding is - all that matters is my perceived range and how I think villain will react to it.
fwiw i meant "his river betsizing is a FLUSH extremely rarely"i actually do think it's a pure bluff pretty rarely as well though, but probably more often than a flush :). i just think its a ton of marginal sd value type stuff that cant face a jam.
I have to be aware of my perceived range all the time. I could represent flush really well on that board given my line. It's almost as if it doesn't matter what my actual holding is - all that matters is my perceived range and how I think villain will react to it. Well, your readless, so it's hard to tell how your opponent perceives your range since we don't know how he thinks about poker at all yet. I think versus the average opponent though, this is a super scary river jam and you prob get a fold from a good amount of stuff.Your hand does matter though. If we had KJ we would call, if we had AJ we would call. If the river was 3c and our kicker would play (and he can have more air) we can happily call. So it's a little more than "what is my perceived range, how will villain react to it", but it's certainly important to think about.
Q2dd hand:I like the 3bet pre, sizing is good, correct reads for it and good hand selection for 3bet bluffing. Flop check is good for reasons you mentioned. I like a bigger river bet, you rep a checked down AX really well, the average 3bet calling range just doesnt contain much AX also. Plus a lot of AX combos that would call a 3bet AJ-A8, i would expect to have bet this board already at some point...makes them less likely imo. I like a bet of about 80% pot.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1690 84.50 BBs Hero (BB): t1310 65.50 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A 9 BTN/SB raises to t50, Hero calls t30 Flop: (t100) T 4 6 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Turn: (t420) 9 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t240, Villain had his stats blocked. He played standart TAG style, opened 80%+ OTB, cbet a lot. It's a dry flop, I expect him to cbet with his whole range. My A high is definitely good here a lot. I decided to c/r instead of c/c because I didn't want to give him a chance to barrel me off my hand. I expect him to fire most of the time given his playing style and how weak my c/c range is. I'm risking 160 to win 160 so I need my bluff to work only half the time and that doesn't even take into account all those times when I improve to the best hand. My plan was to barrel on a lot of turns if he calls to fold out 4x and 6x which he has in range given his high opening %. But then when I hit a pair I kind of got lost. Now I'm ahead vs a big part of his range but at the same time I don't know if I'll get any value by betting. There are some hands like 89, 79 but I don't think he has a lot of them in range. So I checked. But when he bet it's kind of a weird spot. I don't know if random villain would bet this turn with anything but TP+. So my questions are:What do you think about my play on flop and my thought process?What would you do on turn? Was checking a mistake? If I had decided to c/c this flop instead of c/r and villain fired this turn - would it be a fold or call given what I know about him?
I think a check/raise with A9 can be a fine way continue against an opponent who opens and c-bets wide, especially if your opponent double barrels a good bit (otherwise I'd just check/call).I do think checking turn is an error. I'd bet 200 for value. If you just c/c flop, I think you have to call another street when the nine peels.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1470 49 BBs Hero (BB): t1530 51 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with K 8 BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t30 Flop: (t120) 3 9 Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB calls t120 Turn: (t480) J (2 players) - 1230 effective stack Villain is a losing player, still early in the match. He limp / called T8 before, folded some buttons and raised some. First time I'm calling his open, so I have no reads on how he plays postflop in position. c/r and get it on the flop is standart, right? What should I do on this turn? I doubt I have enough equity to bet/call turn. I picked up a gutshot, but at the same time I may no longer have K as an out. J on the turn hits / improves some hands in his range. He's not folding Tx, Jx, FD to turn barrel. I was thinking about couple options:1) c/c - he might check back 9x, Tx, FD - hands that aren't folding if I bet so I save some chips. 2) bet small to set my own price for the river. If I bet big and he shoves I have to fold.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1750 58.33 BBs Hero (BB): t1250 41.67 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with J K BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) J A 8 (2 players) Hero bets t160, BTN/SB calls t160 Turn: (t640) 7 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks River: (t640) 5 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB checks Villain is a losing player. Can I bet this turn for value or is it too thin? I think he has more weaker hands in range that can call than Ax. There are FD, SD, weaker pairs. What do you think about half pot bet?
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t1410 70.50 BBs Hero (BB): t1590 79.50 BBs Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 9 8 BTN/SB raises to t40, Hero calls t20 Flop: (t80) 2 9 Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t60, Hero calls t60 Turn: (t200) 5 (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100, Villain is a losing player.First time I called his open. I have no information about his barreling range and frequency. Do you call or fold this turn? What is the worst 9x that you would consider calling? I think 98 is a bit too weak. He's definitely betting Qx, strong 9x, maybe FD, SD. But I doubt he's value betting worse 9x. So in that case I would only be beating draws, but they have good equity vs my hand and even if they miss on the river he might fire 3rd barrel and I can't call 3rd barrel readless. So I think folding is best with this hand.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BTN/SB: t2130 42.60 BBs Hero (BB): t870 17.40 BBs Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BB with J Q BTN/SB raises to t100, Hero calls t50 Flop: (t200) 2 9 K (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t100,Villain is a losing player, He cbet almost always, Fold flop, right? If effective stacks were deeper would you prefer c/c, c/r or c/f? Why? If villain is barreling a lot then I think c/r is the best. If he gives up with air on turn undercards then I think it's ok to call since he will shutdown with air on all cards lower than 9. And I not only have outs but I also can bluff river if he checks back turn.
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BTN/SB): t1115 27.88 BBs BB: t1885 47.12 BBs Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BTN/SB with 9 8 Hero raises to t80, BB calls t40 Flop: (t160) 9 5 Q (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets t80, BB calls t80 Turn: (t320) 4 (2 players) BB checks, Bet turn half pot for value from FD, SD, weaker pairs and then check back most rivers? 96 would be a check or would you still bet it? What do you think about betting less than half pot?
Poker Stars $96.32+$3.68 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter Hero (BB): t1600 53.33 BBs BTN/SB: t1400 46.67 BBs Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with K J BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t160, BTN/SB calls t100 Flop: (t320) 4 8 J (2 players) Hero bets t190, BTN/SB calls t190 Turn: (t700) 9 (2 players) - 1050 effective stack Hero bets t450, BTN/SB calls t450 River: (t1600) Q (2 players) Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t600 all in, Hero folds Final Pot: t1600 BTN/SB shows 7 6 (high card Queen) BTN/SB wins t1600 Villain is a losing player.Is my line good? He has to be bluffing at least 21% for me to call. I don't think I can call his river jam. FD missed, but it's just so easy for him to have Tx. I don't think he's value betting anything worse than straight.
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