i ve started to play super turbos this month, so far i ve played 478 games for a 4% roi but damn, i ve lostmore than 47 buyins when i went all in and i was ahead, is this normal variance or am i just damned?i mean, how can it be possible to lose that much when you are ahead?Want to know if the superturbo players can give me the numbers of games i will have to play to have an accurate idea ofmy real ROIthanks
I'm no expert at husngs but 4% seems very good. But I think you'll have to play a few thousand.
i dont know, you think 4% roi is good?it s at the 5€ level on pokerstars.fr, if i have only this roi at this level, think i m going to lose at higher stakes no?i think i beat this level easily but variance and my ROi don t say the same thing, really don t know what to thinkwhen i see players with fantastic stats on sharkscope, i wonder how is it possible
Did you account all the times you were behind but you won? Thats a variance too.
yes i count that too! sure
Keep your head-up sadbeats, we all go through swings. Right now I'm on an 18 buy-in downswing myself but i'm constantly reviewing my play and it helps me to stay motivated knowing that i'm playing good. 47 buy-ins is a little steep, perhaps maybe you wanna try sending a couple HHs to a coach like RyPac for review. Any little bit of information goes a long way. Hope this helps.
http://mulitiax.blogspot.com
i would like to send a hand history to a coach like Rypac for a review but how can it be done, i mean it s like a coaching session? you know the cost and all?i want to play 2k games a month to see how it goes but i have to stay focus and MOTIVATED but when variance hits you like this, it's really hard. Someone knows what ROI a good winning player can have at the 5€ and 10€
You shouldn't worry, 4% ROI is quite acceptable. A tad bit swingy though.
i m worried about the all the buy ins i ve lost when i was ahead, how is it possible?what roi have the good players at this limit? (don t know if we can talk of "good players" but...)sample size to have a true idea of what my real ROI is??
Hi Sadbeats,Go ahead and post the stats you're talking about as a picture here (the little tree icon will allow you to post a picture, hit "input" and "full html" first though. That way we can see exactly what you're seeing and give you more precise feedback.My HH rates and information are on my coaching page here on HUSNG.com. Go ahead and check that out and you can email me/AIM/Skype me with any questions after.
hi rypac,what picture are you talking about? the sharkscope stats? i had a look at your coaching page and i m interested in the leakfinder videoHow many games do you think are a good sample for an accurate ROI?My screenname on pokerstars.fr is sadbeats1 if you want to have a look because i can t post the stats, don t know why it doesn 't work
I meant the 42 buyins lost while getting it in ahead remark, I assume you're looking at a stat on that, so if so, just post a screenshot/picture of that stat.
not exacly, i write it on a notepad, each time i go all in (when me and my opponent have almost the same stack size)if i win when i am behind, like AK versus 77 i write it too but still i am losing a ton of games when i am aheadis there a stat for this on a software like pokertracker?Rypac, what would you consider a good sample size for an accurate ROI?Sorry, it s difficult to express myself, my english sucks
So over a 500 game sample it's basically 95% likely that your winrate is within 4.4% of what you experienced. So if you run 55% winrate over 500 games, it's 95% likely that you're between a 50.6% winner and a 59.4% winner.In short, 500 games is a bit small, something like 2,000 games looks better (then you'll be 95% sure you're within 2% either way on your winrate).
Also, notepad writing down will almost certainly include bias.
thanks for the answer rypac, yes i know it s not the best way to do it( writinig it on a notepad), is there a feature in pokertracker for this?i think i m going to play plenty of them and i ll post the results then...How long does it take you to do a leakfindervideo?i need to really improve my game and after all the time i have done this on my own( with very few results) i guess it's time to use the help of a coach
I think you can use HEM or PT to get some sort of "better than results" idea of how good you are.Leakfinder video, 20 minutes of single tabling, that I can do Tuesday for you if I receive the file before Tuesday.Also, apparently the confidence interval chart is incorrect. We're working on improving it, it's being misinterpreted by many people, including me.I'll leave the post up there, but just so people know: Post 13 is incorrect at the moment.
You have to consider the high rake on .fr which is at hyper still like 5%+ first you have to beat this rake, then your opponents, so you actually need a 52,5 % winrate just to be break even with rake.
Don't mean to hijak the thread... close to a 30bi difference in EV at the 50$ level. Some 30's in there as well.Normally I would say i'm close to a 5% ROI husng player. Thoughts? Is this unusual or pretty standard? Thanks.
Not very common, maybe 10% of the time you'll run that bad or worse as a 5% ROI player during a 500 game stretch.That's my best guesstimate at least. If you give me your exact record (W-L) in this sample and estimated winrate, I can give you an exact number (as in x% of the time you lose half your games or worse).
Thanks for the quick reply.270 wins / 244 LossesExpected ev 5.4% Actual ev 0.3%Cheers.
About 26.5% of the time a 54% winner will lose 244 times or more over that 514 game sample.That number climbs to over 43% that youll lose at least 244 times if you're a 53% winner over a 514 game sample.It's only 14% for a 55% winner though.
WTF???everytime i go all in with AK, those donks show q2o or j5 and hit, what the f******??how am i suppose to deal with it when it happens 7 times in a row?( and i only played 13 games today)god damn!! sometimes i feel just disgusted by the cards..really need the jared tendler book i think
Tendler's book is a good idea.Understanding variance and keeping a long term outlook can help, but easier said than done (Tendler's book will have some specific ideas I'm sure to give you a solid plan on dealing with tilt and variance).
yes rypac, i think i have mental leaks too, i want to buy this book before throwing my computer out of the window Variance is incredible, i ve been playing poker for a long time and i am stuck to the micro stakes ( i had to cash out regularly)now i have another plan and i won t cash out one euro of my bankroll until i play the 50s but damn, i can t make any money.i keep losing and losing those f*** allins.If i win a few games, i m going to ask you for a leakfinder video to help me.jared tendler book and your coaching : i have to succeed right??? lol
Okay, few coins from me.First of all WTF???!!!11 is not a great approach to any game, and especially not a great approach to a losing situation. Try saying something like: "Nice hand sir. That was actually pretty bad call from you in this particular situation, but you got lucky. I am looking forward to play more games against you."Now, lets put a hand in a pokerstove. Lets say: AKs vs Q2o.equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.274% 69.99% 00.28% 57528672 229794.00 { AKs }Hand 1: 29.726% 29.45% 00.28% 24202332 229794.00 { Q2o } So, what do we have here? AKs will win roughly 70% of time. Q2o will win roughly 30% of time. Lets put that in a perspective: during next 1000 times you shove AKs and villain calls with Q2o, you will win about 700 pots, and lose 300 pots. That seems like I'm winning long term, no reason to go berserk over few unlucky loses.
thi
Good time to update this with a very relevant new article: Given My Results, What Should My Confidence Level Be About My True Winrate?