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happyham's picture
Math question?

I often hear instructors in videos say something like 'I only need to be right here 20% of the time for this to be a plus EV call'.  Can someone explain the calculation to me?  I often fold in situations based on 'feel' when perhaps a more mathematical approach would be better? Appreciate any help!

siriusz's picture
That's basically pot odds.

That's basically pot odds. You obviously never have to be right more than 50% of the time for a call to be correct, so if you think half the time your opponent is ahead and half he's behind you should always call regardless of the money in the pot.Some simple examples are: you're on the river and your opponent bets half pot. So by betting half pot he's giving you 3-1 pot odds on a call (pot was 2, he bets 1 so pot is 3 and you have to call 1). If exact numbers make you understand better if pot is 500, he bets 250, now pot is 750 and calling costs you 250 (which simplifying gives you obviously 3-1 again). So what does it mean in % to be getting 3-1? It means that out of 4 times villain wins 3 and you 1, so you're winning 1/4 = 0,25 (25%). So if you're facing a half pot on the river you need to be ahead only 1 time every 4 for a call to be breakeven. Or you're on the river and villain overbets 2x pot. Now you're getting 3-2 on a call (pot was 1, villain bets 2, you have to call 2), so you have to win 2 times out of 5 (3+2). 2/5 = 0,4 or 40% of the time you must be ahead for it to be breakeven. It's important that you always remember that you have to add both numbers to know out of how many times you have to win 2 (obviously if you have to win 2 out of 3 you have to be a 66% favorite, but there's no bet villain can ever make that will put you on such a situation) Maybe my post is just too long, but I hope it explains something

happyham's picture
Thanks.  That was a perfect

Thanks.  That was a perfect explaination :)

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