I wrote a post before about 40bi downswing and thought it was the end of nightmare.It seems it wasnt...I am still losing 55bi in total in a span of about 1k matches at 30s combined with some 15s.I dont knwo how to deal with it.Last year i made a living from these things with some I volume put on.But now it seems like a curse has been following me.I want an opinion from pros on semi pros or even decent moneymakers at husng..how can u possibly deal with such a loss?I mean when u r always on top of things and playin good and dominate majority of players at these stakes how can u possibly swallow that u always lose flips,always lose when u are 80-20 ahead?Can someone search altair416 on sharkscope and filter results for last 2000 games heads up any speed.Guys i want opinions on this one
just my opinion, but looks more like tilt than downswing....over last 30 days:-$2K day and -$800 day at 30 abi...a day with 300+ games at turbos/std speed... when lots of days you play 30-60 gamesstop chasing losses by multitabling for huge sessions?even the day (28/09) with "only" -$500 you played way more than usual.clear pattern emerging here, imo. even looking back 3 months you see the same on your graph.at least you're not chasing by moving up...it seems you're the source of this "downswing"learn how to quit even though you're down for the day. do you realise you had a -66 buy-ins day!?use a hard stop loss if you can't "make" you quit. eg: "if I'm down 20bi for the day I quit no matter what."clearly you're a winning plyer, but this is a huge leak. prob cost you like $4000 over last 3 months.
This post is gold !!! Rep +
I am by no means a pro or even semi pro player (marginal winner at the 20-30's), but I just want to say that the above post is great advice. Being completely honest with myself, I follow that same trend of playing at least 100% more games in a day than usual when I am running bad. As a result you DEFINITELY don't play your A game, even if you still run into the coolers and losses in flips. I suggest following some sort of weekly schedule to stop you from putting in too much volume when you are not on top of things. Hokie posted a great post in 2+2 about his weekly schedule(poker is a marathon not a sprint), and even when the action was good he would stop if he felt he wasn't playing great. Be honest with yourself about how long/how many games you can play whilst at your A game and then set a schedule accordingly. That way you focus on the volume goal, rather than getting caught up in the emtional rollercoaster of the financial goal. Hopefully others will comment on the graph itself, but TBH I think Shinigami nailed it. You're obviously a good player. Good luck, and you WILL see the other side :)
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I make a 60 buy-in downswing sng50 ...50 buy in downswing in nl200 hu ..and many more ... Alway take a long break 2-5 day , the last day before you go back in the game spend 5 hour to look video of poker and 2 hour to sit down and think of what you will do in any give situation or again any opposent .... my 2 cents
Hey Ryan check out my graph on sharkscope and i need ur opinion.I ve seen u had a pretty steep swing yourself according to ur graph.Statistically how often can u face such big swing and what bankroll management should u follow afterwards?
First off, some of the replies in this thread are excellent, great job.Most of my stars swings are overexaggerated due to 4 mans with skates playing higher than I would've on my own at the time and selling around 25% of action in those (I think the first down and upswing that looks like a W on my graph was around that time, but could be off).In any case, I've swung 50 buyins down at the $200 level before. If you're confident in your ability it won't get to you as much, or maybe it shouldn't? I mean, if you flip a coin 100x and you make $1.05 when it's heads and lose $1 when it's tails, do you get really upset when it goes 40 heads and 60 tails? I mean, you could, but if you think about it you start to feel silly and stupid for getting so upset.Now obviously it's much more difficult in poker than in the simplified coin flip example. But over time if you keep working hard and really trying to get an understanding of variance, then I think you'll end up coming to similar conclusions (that it's not worth stressing over).Long term, really try to keep yourself out of any situation where you NEED to win short term, I mean if you set yourself up in a financial situation where you need 7/10 type months to happen over and over, eventually you'll not have that 70% chance type month hit, you'll run bad and be devastated.Also really realize that long term SKILL shines, not variance. If you're losing over thousands and thousands and thousands of games and you're not in the high stakes, you're likely needing to work a lot more on your game than you probably think (at the higher stakes you still need to work, but maybe more on game selection or tilt control, move a buyin down, etc.).There's always a chance that you're just running bad, but of all the "I've ran really bad over [x sample]" that any of us have heard in our lives, including our own gripes, well a lot fewer of those are actually legit variance, and a lot more are something else (game selection, tilt control, etc. and you truly didn't have an edge or nearly as large of one as you thought over that sample).If you overestimate your edge even by a little bit, especially in hyper/super turbos, you can unwittingly be signing up for the insane swings which happen more frequently in and around the 50-52% winrate area.