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dasultanz's picture
Hypers finally cracked me - questions (mostly) about variance

Hey all,I've played about 4.5K hypers with an average buy-in of $80 so far, as of now 6K minus.I used to play mostly turbo HU, but I also used to be tilting to the extreme and spewing $200 matches like they were for free, so no profits there either. In the hypers, I seem to do well whenever I run averagely, but these periods seem to be few and far between.I figured I had dealt with my tilt for good, but hypers have a tendency I guess to put even the most calm player on tilt. I ran like the devil for the past 1K games and even worse for the last 800 of those.My question is, how do you guys deal with periods when for 800 games every AA, KK, QQ and JJ gets cracked, every 2 and 3outer hits and every runner runner kills you (and I'm not talking about desperate, 100chip pushes). For me, it messes with my head, whenever I see a 2 or 3outer, I'm ready to close the table. Whenever someone is pushing the river, I'm ready to fold a potentially winning hand, because "they must have hit again" - which often proves to be true though, when they show the hand.Also, I obviously have leaks in my game that will need to be plugged, but I don't know if playing 4K hypers shows my real (in?)ability or not or whether it would be closer to 10K games or maybe never. I don't mean for this to be a whiny post, I know everyone is going through periods of bad beats (for me, this now is the longest stretch I've had when literally none of my best hands win ever and I just can't deal with it alone) but I hope it makes some sense and you guys can help me make some sense of this mess. :)Thanks, I appreciate it.

dasultanz's picture
Also what is it specifically

Also what is it specifically that I can do to make it better if there is anything. Plugging leaks obviously, but even that seems a bit funny to me at this point (I'm coming fresh from these beats though), because everything seems completely random in hypers to me, you either run good or you don't. 

dasultanz's picture
Also what is it specifically

Also what is it specifically that I can do to make it better if there is anything. Plugging leaks obviously, but even that seems a bit funny to me at this point (I'm coming fresh from these beats though), because everything seems completely random in hypers to me, you either run good or you don't. 

Barrin's picture
I think you should work on

I think you should work on your mental game more than on your technical skills for the time being. I think 'the mental game of poker' by Jared Tendler would be some good lecture for you. It is a given that the edge in hypers usually is kinda small, so every mistake you make while on tilt is reducing your ROI. If you make too many, it might turn you into a loseing player and this will be reflected by your bankroll reduction.

Hi.

Late Ariba's picture
Jarred Tendles is a good book

Jarred Tendles is a good book well worth it.Another thing I tried was to run through all the AIs that I won were I was a big dog. We have a tendency to only remember all the bad beats.I aslo run through hands whereI was ahead say 70/30 spots and actually ended up holding up as expected over the long term. Rail other people's  games you get to see a lot of ridiculous run outs and its not your money on the line. After a while you got to get decentised.For example I went through I period where I was under the impression that all my small pair 3BS' were being beaten. I was wrong HEM says its a winning play. So I don't trust me, I trust the evidence and the math as best as my level of ability alows me to apply it.  

dasultanz's picture
Thanks guys for the input. I

Thanks guys for the input. I think Jared Tendler's book is excellent also, I bought it when it first came out. It has helped me deal with a lot of issues that really held me back in the past and I'm improving - obviously not everything is all well in my mental game, but definitely a big improvement already.But, I knew that as soon as I mention tilt, most of my post would be interpreted in this direction. The reason I said "finally cracked me" is that there seem to be sustained periods or extreme run-bad interspersed with a few good periods and although I tend not to play on tilt anymore, it tilts me away from the table that it seems no matter what I do and no matter how I tweak things and no matter how many times I put it in good, I keep losing (please do not interpret this from the whining viewpoint, I'm being rational). I am not under the "impression" that it is this way, it is a fact that when the money goes in, I show up with the best hand about 85% of the time, most of them happen to be 80%-20% and somehow people spike their cards. A few regs told me that they only sit me 'cause they run so good against me. Well, that's not very inspiring. :) These things happen in "batches", I don't know how it is for other people. People often complain about run-bads when they keep losing coin flips. I wish I had such a rosy situation.The fact that very few people even replied to my post gives me the impression that this is not supposed to happen. I mean that 5K games could be considered long term and I am just considered  person with a skewed vision of things. I always figured it would be about 10K-15K games until a period would be considered long term in hypers but maybe I'm wrong.I guess one my important questions is, should I bother to throw more money at this, as these long winding periods of mostly 3outers keep going or what else is there. I guess my problem is I refuse to believe that if I put it in good most of the time, I will eventually win in the long term. Maybe that's one of the great myths of poker, lol (yeah I end it on a bitter, unnecessary note). :)

dasultanz's picture
cool

I guess. 3 things.don't write posts on semi-tilt.(like this)dont talk to yourself on forums.go back to playing MTTs.hehe.gl all and happy new year.