It's not too often, but you do see people winning above EV. In my Graph Porn blog series, you can see Serkules EV graph has him over EV. Other humble and confident players have shared their over EV graphs.But most of the time people are more motivated to share graphs of pure winnings, and when they are over EV they sometimes feel less inclined to share that detail with the community, perhaps thinking it weakens their accomplishments.The other common graphs are the way below EV ones. I think it's probably a healthy way to express frustration, sharing with others, there sometimes develops some comradery to the point where players rally around one another and celebrate the eventual recovery upswing. People do this in forum posts and blogs often.Anyways, I think plenty of people run above EV or have, they are just less likely to post it. Even on some of the under EV graphs, you can see at one point they were well above EV, but they didn't share that graph at that point, only after it went way under EV. Not that there is anything wrong with that, I'm just pointing it out for the sake of answering your question, that yes there are plenty of over EV players in these (don't worry they aren't likely rigged!).

Maybe Serkules stole all your EV :)

It's my understanding that if you are a winning player you should be running above EV (in HEM anyways). If you are a winning player you win more tourneys than you lose. Everytime you win with the best hand you run above EV (cause you take down all the chips but your opponent still had some equity in the pot). Therefore if you win more tourney than you lose (cause you are a winning player), you should be running above EV.But I could be wrong.

But if you are a winning player, you get it in more often with the best hand and therefore win more often and therefore run above EV more oftenand, yes I could be wrong  

i' m not agree with you genher, when u get in with the best hand and you win, you don't run above EV, it's just normal no?you run above EV when u are an underdog and you win but maybe i' m wrong too?!?Everybody (including me) keeps complaining about running bad in hypers...wonder why everybody keeps playing them...And wonder how people can make 600k$ a year playing them lol!

^ This isn't how the HEM line works. When you are a winning player, you will run above EV more times than not because you get it in ahead more often so there is less times that you zre going to lose. However when you do lose, you will run a much larger amount under EV, so it is just going to even itself out. It's easier to explain with an exampleYou play 5 games, get it in as an 80% favourite everytime, and the EV magically evens itself out over this LOL samplesize. so you win 4, and lose one. 1000 chips in the middle, 80% means your meant to win 800, so everytime you win you run 200 over EV. So you win 4, meaning you run 800 over EV, but you lose one, where you have run 800 under EV in that one game. Therefore, you have ran Over EV more times than under, but the under was worth so much more it has evened out.I know its a very simplistic example, but it should do the trick. The EV line is correct, just you have to try to understand what it's trying to tell you.-Jay

There you go, my lifetime HU hypers. Unlike in turbos, I ran above EV and know a lot of other regulars who run above as well.My sample isn't huge, just started playing hypers before new year. Basically all-difference in EV happened at the 30s. The stakes here are from 7s (only few) up to 100s (where I'm obviously below EV :D ) http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/542/pavels4444ev.png/ about 100BI above overall

"But if you are a winning player, you get it in more often with the best hand and therefore win more often and therefore run above EV more oftenand, yes I could be wrong"Yes, when you get it in with the best hand and win you run above ev. Yes, you win more often when you get it in with the best hand than not, it is correct that you run above EV more often, what you're simply missing here is that we aren't counting how many times we run above or below ev, when you win having 66% equity the difference between your real winnings and your expectation is a lot less than when you lose having 66%. You can afford to win 2 out of 3 66% type hands and in that case your real winnings will match your ev line exactly.Cliffs:Winning more often with the best hand doesn't make you run above ev, that's just exactly what is expected to happen (because you have the best hand, ldo). Edit: guy 2 posts above was (significantly) quicker.

Just to chime in quickly, Genher is 100% completely wrong in this thread. Do not fall for his logical flaw.There is no correlation between style/roi/anything and being over or below allin EV--it is an unbiased indicator. All it depends on is luck in allins and you have no control over it.

" Just to chime in quickly, Genher is 100% completely wrong in this thread. Do not fall for his logical flaw."jeez !! you make it sound like I am some sort of..NM. I am not trying to drag anyone into "logical flaw". Just trying, like many people it seems to get a better understanding of the EV adjusted line and it's implications.The way I was thinking about it was as follow please tell me what I am missing:Sometimes you will get it in a 60% fav. and lose and sometimes you will get it in with 40% and win and so on...That's variance. Variance will even out in the long term, so lets ignore variance for a minute.Lets assume that you get it in 6 times out of 10 being a  60% fav and win, and 4 times you get it in with 40% Eq and lose. 1000 chips when you get it in and no variance (you got it good and won, bad and lost). The 6 times you win you will be running above EV (by 400 chips cause you won 1000 chips instead of the 600 you should have) and the 4 times you lose you will running under EV (cause you should have won 400 chips on average and you didn't). You are still running above EV by 800 chips. that's why I was thinking, if you are a winning player, meaning you get it in good more often than bad, they should be a bias to you running above EV.of course as already mentioned, sometimes you will get it in 60% Eq and lose and sometimes 40% Eq and win that's variance but that should be irrelevant as it will even out in the long term anyways. 

Ok Got it ! my previous reasoning is completely wrong.I can't say that I get it in 6 times out of 10, being a 60% fav, win them all, and not experience variance. This is nonsens. if I win them all I am obviously experiencing positive variance! I should be winning 3.6 of them and losing 2.4 (on average) of the tourneys. therefore I am wrong. getting it in good more often shouldn't have any influence on running above or below EV!I guess the only thing that might happen, is that if you get it in more often being a fav you might experience less bad variance (and more variance in your favour may be??). The same way that if you have 80% chance of winning you will be less likely to experience bad variance that if you only have 51% chance of winning. That might explain why, like pavels4444, I have seen many winning regs running above EV. Obviously that should be for short to medium term.On a side note, I am quite amazed by the differences there is between BI graphs, Chips graphs, HEM graph and PT4 graphs with EV adjusted. Now that I have both HM2 and PT4, once I have manged to import my old FTP Hyper tourneys into PT4 i will post them side by side to show. i have done it over a smaller sample it's quite mind bogling.

I got dealt AA 15 times in the last 20 hands and only won 55%. I'm running sooo terrible that my EV graph has nowhere lower to go. Check out these graphs and if you look carefully, you'll see a big sad face

@ KatipoI also think that it is a fairly unreliable measure but that doesn't seem to be the general consensus.

Winning regs are probably more likely to be running above EV bc they are winning though ;)Seriously though, if you compare people in society, say investors and their luck, odds are the guys that make billions are luckier than the guys that don't make much (hindsight bias, right?).Like, if you flip a coin 10 times and that's a game, and you get a dollar for each coin flip you win, the person that wins the most money is the luckiest. It's a bit murkier and more complex in something like hyper turbo husngs (and it's not a 50/50 thing obviously), but if you want to look for the people that are the best, you look at the top, and if you want to look for the people that run the best, also look at the top, right?Hope I did not succumb to a fallacy here while trying to explain one!

By they way, back to the OP question, 16colordeck/whatisicm is also another humble reg that was willing to show an EV graph where he ran really above EV. If people know others, name them, reward people for sharing their good fortunes and not cowering behind a run good graph with a lack of confidence in sharing.Though it's probably easier for both 16colordeck and serkules to share their graphs, even if they ran bad they would still be top players results wise, but that's a testament to their skills in this game.

@stp, if you run 1k below EV, your expectation over the next 100k hands, 1 million hands or 10 million hands is to be 1k below EV total (IE, at any given point you expect to run at EV).Though it might skew a little worse for a winner than a losing player, I believe that's a safe assumption (if the above is wrong, what is 100% right is that you CANNOT expect EV to even out, once you experience bad luck it's already happened, it's a "sunk cost" so to speak... if you flip the coin 5 times tails, it's not likely or expected to run 5 times more head than tails in the next 10,000 flips, it's expected to be 50-50 still).

"Like in my case, I am running 1k below ev at the 20av stake , is it correct to consider the 1k as winnings on long term despite the profit line because somewhere along that will cover up assuming my ev line is only going higher, am I making sense?!"Though I might have misunderstood you. If you mean you should consider your skill/winrate the EV line and NOT the profit line, then yes, you should, because EV line should be more likely to tell you your true edge or skill than your actual results. So if your EV line is great and your results are merely good and you have the bankroll to move up, take that shot (whereas if your EV line was negative but you were winning in results and had the br, you should NOT move up because you're not all that likely to have an edge at your buyin level).This is one of those threads where a Skates or Mers can come in and just clean house, splitting pure facts at us ;)

weeeeeeeeeee drunk postIf you play just 1 game and get it in as a 60-40 favourite, you're obviously more likely to end up above than below ev. 60% of the time you win a full BI and are above ev, 40% you lose and are below. Ofc that doesn't change your expectation, as when you lose you're more below ev than you're above when you win. But indeed you will be above ev more times than you'll be below.If you play 2 games, both 60-40s, you'll be more often below than above ev. You'll go 2-0 36% of the time (above ev), 1-1 48% (below ev) and 0-2 16% (below ev). So you'll find yourself above ev 36% of the time and below ev 64% of the time after 2 games.3 games: 3-0 (above) 21,6% / 2-1 (above) 43,2% / 1-2 (below) 28,8% / 0-3 (below) 6,4%... Total 64,8% of the time above ev and 35,2% below.---Now, if you were to somehow get it in every game as a 99-1 favourite, if you played 68 games or less there would be a better than 50% chance of you winning all of them (0.99^68=0,505). If you won 100% of games you'd be above ev, so basically for any number of games lower than 68 you'd more often end up above than below ev.I'll let a better and less drunk mind explain to me what happens after a ton of games.

yeah nicolas you're wrong. You're more likely to be above ev, but you will be less above ev when you win then below ev when you lose so that avereages out.The EV line is a strictly better indicator than the profit line of your skill and edge in a game.However, it is still a form of results. All qualms about looking at your profit line to tell how you are playing apply to it, and so you can use every single set of "don't be results oriented" type complaints about it. Just like you can about the profit line. However, notice that they all apply strictly less because the EV line is a strictly better indicator of skill. Still, over short term (<2k games) the ev line will have a lot of variance in it and it will not tell you how good you are playing. In a longer term though (10k games) it can give you a good idea of how you're doing in the game--it will still suffer from variance and won't be your true roi but it will be significantly closer to your true roi than your real roi.As for whether you'll meet to zero, there are different views on this. It's important to remember that over an infinite amount of games almost anything can/will happen--so over an infinite number of games your two lines will converge an infinite number of times, but they will also diverge more than you can imagine (also infinite number of times).Over smaller scales Ryan is definitely correct--luck has no memory so it won't ever give back your "due" buyins. However sad that is there are a few nicer things to consider. Over your next games you are just as likely to run just as far over EV as you ran under before (or vica versa) because it's an unbiased indicator. So no matter how unlucky you were with your under EV run you have an equal chance of over the next stretch of games running exactly opposite and being way over EV. Unfortunetly, you also have an equal chance or running just the same :(The one nice long term convergence you can count on is that over longer games the amount you're under ev will become less and less relative to your sample. That is, you may be 50BI EV under but if it's 100k games and you've won 2k BI, that 50 BI will be much lower percent of your green line. So in the graph they will look like they're converging just becuase of bigger sample, but unfortuantely yeah that 50BI can still definitely be there.Throughout all this rememebr the uses of the EV and Profit line. EV line tells you what stakes you can play based on your ROI and is best estimate of future winnings. Profit line tells you how much your current winnings are and so what stakes you can play based on your bankroll, and is your actual winnings (so how much you can cash out etc). These things are very useful to Kelly Criterion bankroll management. So for example, If you're worried about your EV line being EV over a like 3 or 4k sample, you're probably right to worry and should move down despite your actual bankroll being high (with a very low ROI you need a huge bankroll) and perhaps invest your winnings (since you have a lot) into coaching and be willing to play regs at the lower stakes to improve. On the other hand if you have a high ev roi but low actual winnings you should try to stick it out and use as aggro a bankroll management as possible (obv still move down when need be, but realize that you don't need as many BI at the level you're at then most players) and avoid cashing out, buying coaching, reg warring, prop bets, and other things that cost your real profits.

Your 60% Favourite. Both even chips. So 2BI's in the pot (1 from you 1 from him). A 60% favourite should win 1.2BI's from the pot. Therefore if you lose you run 1.2 below and 0.8 above. Over 10 games, it evens perfectly, you win 6, lose 4. The 6 you have won make you win 12 BI, which makes you run 0.8 above for each so (0.8 x 6)= 4.8 above. Then you lose the other 4, runnin 1.2 below each time so (4 x -1.2) = -4.8. 4.8 - 4.8 = 0 Therefore you have run spot on EV wise.P.S, Gehner please add me on Skype, same name here (and anyone else who wants to know about redline). I wrote a whole post on the redline for my study group, I'm sure it could help cover over some wholes in your logic.-Jay

Wtf how did no one understand what I was saying, coffeeeee read my post man :("If you play just 1 game and get it in as a 60-40 favourite, you're obviously more likely to end up above than below ev. 60% of the time you win a full BI and are above ev, 40% you lose and are below. Ofc that doesn't change your expectation, as when you lose you're more below ev than you're above when you win. But indeed you will be above ev more times than you'll be below."So yeah your expectation is obviously not above your ev, it's just the way your possible results are distributed imply you being slightly above ev a majority of the time (60%) and significantly below ev a minority of the time (40%). I was just looking at how this probabilities change with the number of games you play, this number being small, and wondering what happens with a higher number of games.

anybody know if the pt4 ev line in $ is accurate?

Just another ev line question.  Is it normal for the ev line of a winning player to be negative over (very) small samples?

Today I lost twice after getting someone down to his last 10 chips. Not sure how rare that is.