Hey guys,I thought I had a pretty good understanding about ev, but upon review of hands in HEM1 I have some concerns that it may be calculated incorrectly. Can anyone offer some insight/help to this example? $4 game on Merge Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 03, 08:50:28 ET 2012Table Gnat Room Super Turbo HU (60622424) (Real Money)Seat 2 is the buttonSeat 1: villain ( 1470 )Seat 2: hero( 1830 )hero posts small blind [100].villain posts big blind [200].** Dealing down cards **Dealt to hero[ Tc Td ]hero raises [1630]villain calls [1070]villain shows [As, 4d ]hero shows [Tc, Td ]** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 3c, 8h ]** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ]** Dealing River ** [ 6d ]hero wins 2540 from main pothero wins 460In this hand I'm 70% to win preflop, but after winning HEM has my cEV as -668, and $ev as -$3.16. How is this a -ev play? There are a lot of hands like this, and if I'm wrong please let me know because it is tilting me trying to figure it out.
Hi there and welcome,The reason it has you at negative is because you won 100% of the chips, when you were only supposed to win 70% on average.So if you get it all in preflop with 72o, and you're only 30% against your opponent's hand and you lose the hand, you'll be running below equity there (in that case, your expected value would be negative, you would just have lost more than your expected loss in that individual hand).Over time it will add up and should balance out quite a bit, enough to give you some good feedback on how variance is impacting you and what your expected success is like.It's not perfect, but having these metrics is considered by most pros to be a better indicator of your true skill than your black and white ("pure") results.
As I understand him HEM shows him that his $EV in this hand is negative - which it surely is not the case in this hand. There is a difference between his $ winnings being > than his $EV and his $EV and cEV being both negative.
Hi.