Hi! I'm new to the forum, watched the free videos and Mers ebook's (very-very good material) and started 7$ Hyper HU SNG's.My questions are about variance and ROI. I've played 742 SNG's in the past few days, 1 tabling and I don't know what's happening. My chip EV is at 24.000 chips (48 BI's), my actual winning are at -400 chips. Is this 49 BI under EV? I use PT3 btw. I don't know where can I see EV ROI in PT3, so I calculated for myself. Are my calculations right, or something is flawed in it?EV is 24.000 chips, so I should've won 48 games more than lose. So, in 742 games: (742-48)/2+48=395 So should've won by EV 395 games and lose 347, right? So, at the 7's, my EV profit should be:395*13,7(ammount won in the games I should've won)-742*7 (total buy-in)= 217,5$EV ROI=217,5/5194=0,4187So, I have 4,2% EV ROI, right? Can I say, that I'm a winner at this limit (given the EV ROI) after 742 games, just running bad? Can be this much more worse, or can I expect some change in this? Thank you for the answers!
I don't use pt3 but you can use the varience calculator on this site to see how sick varience can get. At the moment im running 72 buyins below ev for this month in little over 2.2k games so yeah it can def get worse or stay shitty. But it can also go the other way around and in the long run everything should even out. You probaly want to read this too:http://www.husng.com/content/given-my-results-what-should-my-confidence-level-be-about-my-true-winrate-0http://blog.husng.com/external-bloggers/poker-graph-porn/
just keep on grinding. your ev roi of over 4% is solid. I am also running 110 buyins under EV over a sample of >2k games