Whats you guys thoughts on this spot. Fold or call
arron wilson: Seat 1: arronwilson (1925 in chips)
Seat 2: AmnesiacKid (1075 in chips)
AmnesiacKid: posts small blind 20
arronwilson: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to arronwilson [Ah 2s]
AmnesiacKid: raises 40 to 80
arronwilson: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Ks Jc 5h]
arronwilson: checks
AmnesiacKid: checks
*** TURN *** [Ks Jc 5h] [Ac]
arronwilson: checks
AmnesiacKid: bets 80
arronwilson: calls 80
*** RIVER *** [Ks Jc 5h Ac] [Ad]
arronwilson: bets 240
AmnesiacKid: raises 600 to 840
wich infos do you have about vilain ? how many hands ?
Hes a $15 reg, that was our first match. My friend battles him a lot and told me after his cbet % is only 35% which seems quite low so i think he is capable of checking back hands he doesnt want checkraised with like ace 5 or q ten or maybe even ace high ( in which case it was a chop). I think he would also cbet his bluffs on the flop for 80 chips rather than play his bluffs in a way hes risking his whole stack on the river. I asked my coaches and friends and so far opinions are 50 50.
Ty for this hand. very interesting.
i like adapt my range vs players but A2 oop is weak, dominated and complicated to play postfllop if you hit ... like this case :)
do you know his tendance when he delayed cb ? pote turn and raise river is pretty strong mainly from a reg. He doesn't seem afraid by this board, this river and your bet.
you front river, he can t bluff river and raise a weak Ace or this is just sick ! = AK, AJ, A5 and QT. Wich line does he adopt with a set ?
i prefer CC river because there is more value to encourage him to bluff.
Your welcome.
I called with ace 2 because his pfr was like 80%, so hes also raising a lot of of junk which im ahead off , and if the flop is ace high i expect him to cbet all his bluffs as he knows thats part of his percieved range. Also there was couple of times i check called him with aces after he cbetted and he eventually gave up after he cbet and barreled turn, so i expect to get some value from his bluffs on ace high flops if i just check call.
I cant remember his posflop stats, my friend battles him all the time, this was my first match against him as he never sits me, so i was mostly relying on gameflow and a feel for his game.
If i hadnt of rivered trips i would of checked called also, but when the ace comes on the river i felt i had to valuebet my hand as he is gona check back his k x and j x hands which i wanted to get value from.
I also agree he isnt thinking i can blow him of an ace, this was our first game so he has no reads that i can make a big laydown if he is thinking about folding me off trips, and he knows i wouldnt lead river with kx or jx so i dont really know what hes expecting me to fold if hes bluffing me here which made me think he had it, and also the way the played his hand by not cbetting and checking back a hand which he didnt want to call a checkraise with, so i think he has decent showdown on the flop and on the river i think he has a made hand. If he bluffed me here its an amazing bluff, ill have to try and ask him some day what he had.
With zero history on this guy I wouldn't read too far into perceived ranges. I would anticipate that he cbets his Kx and some Jx too and doesn't bet the turn with 5x, so I look at his range as some weak Jx, QT, stronger ace and bluff.
Jx it is best to lead against on the river bc it'll check back a lot.
QT check fold is best, followed by check call.
AQ, check fold is best, followed by check call (Other aces you chop with so we'll discard those).
Bluff, check call is best without a unique/rare reason to think leading gets you more bluff value (rare, but it happens vs some guys, not relevant here though bc he hasn't played you...).
I would probably check call in this spot unless I felt the player was a complete value opponent that rarely bluffs multi street. You lose less against AQ and QT and you take advantage of bluffs. You lose value again Jx when it calls a river lead (bc it rarely bets when you check) but I think that sacrifice is enough here.
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As played, I would check call here. QT, slowplayed trips type hands and AQ are really the only thing that beats you. Do you think his river raise is those hands more often than a bluff? It doesn't even need to be a bluff as often, since he could very well raise an AAAKJ hand here for value, and you chop with that hand (and losing the pot vs a chop when called is a huge difference, so he doesn't need to bluff all that much compared to having the value hands to make a call correct.).
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As far as your opponent making a great bluff if he were bluffing here, I'm not so sure I agree. You said yourself you would not play Kx or Jx this way and villain would not think you would either. You'd probably 3bet plenty of Ax preflop, at least AT-AK vs a frequent 3bettor, there are two aces on the board as well... I mean in his mind if he's seen you play aggressive this match he coudl very well say "well he has no Jx, Kx and Ax isn't even that likely, he either has QT, once in awhile Ax or he's bluffing... he's been aggro so I'll bluff him here." That's his river thinking too, very easy to see him simply stab at the turn with a bluff given your play.
Hey Ryan thanks for taking your time writing your thought process. Tbh im still unsure what to make of this guys game cause I only played the once vs him so I asked my friend who has played him tons and he said it’s a fold all day vs him. I was actually on skype to him during the hand and said iv an ace, is he capable of bluffing here. Since then I asked my friend about the guys stats, over 1200 hands he never raised the river vs him which makes me think he had it, although I asked my coach who is a coach on here what he thought and he thinks it’s a call too so I am back to being unsure lol
About your last paragraph if he thinks I am bluffing here with nothing. I think it’s very hard for me to have nothing here. I would have to be floating turn with absolutely nothing and just leading river hoping he has nothing he can call with. If I had a hand with no showdown like say 87 suited and I wanted to steal the pot, after he checks the flop I would stab turn here for 80 rather than float and lead 240 on the river risking 320 total. Although that’s not really important if he isn’t thinking that way about my hand and is just hoping I am bluffing enough in this spot for him to think a rebluff is going to work.