First of all, I apologize that I wasn't able to get the hand history for this hand. This happened a while ago, and it's hidden somewhere among thousands of Bovada hands.
20+1 turbo NL holdem HUSNG. Villain has been kind of nitty. He limped with 12 big blind effective stack in late game after some shoves from both of us, and I decided not to shove with Tc 8s.
The flop is Jc 7c 4c, I am first to act. I open shove. Is this awful? Would it have been better to wait for him to make a stab and then check raise? Or am I totally off with this hand?
Thanks for any advice.
imho a little bit of overbet - you didn't protected your hand at all becouse you have only draws - sure - gutshot + flush draw but weak one - so:
villain limping range in this spot - did u had any clue? Imho if he shoved some button his limps will be either trash (but he is nitty so less likely) or hands that play well post flop but don't want to see a shove over raise with - so ie. suited connectors or semi-connectors suited - maybe in clubs:) maybe even K10, QT, QJ - some of real nits can easily limp there because they don't want to face up 3bet shove against agressive player. The 3rd option is strong hand that expected to be acutally shoved over limp as an act of weakness.
so to sum up - onestly i believe that u r beeing called by any J with club, probably by any strong jack without club, obv by flushes, 2 pair hands since J7 is possible - probably Aclubs, and quite often i believe at this stakes by Kc, and all KcX, QcX hands. So I think that this wasn't perfect spot to be bluffing - because that is what you did - don't even try to treat it as a maximizing value:) so better line imho would be a stab and re-evaluate your hand at turn. Since you are going to fold in this case same with pot size bet as with overshove i guess:) but I can be wrong:)
GL.
Thanks for that insightful reply. Looking back, I remember that villain liked to check behind a lot of flops, so my shove was partly an emotional decision because I didn't want him to check behind and have my equity go down on the turn. But thanks to your analysis I now see that I may not have had as much equity as I thought I did.
Do you think that it would be better for me to bet half pot or full pot when I make a stab?
First of all, it is not that uncommon to limp as a trap if your opponent is agressive and you see a higher gain in limping.
The extra fold equity you gain by shoving on the flop does not balance the loss you will have once you are called. Nor is the gain from the steal that big. I doubt that there is any reason to bet >1/2 or 3/4 pot size here.
Hi.
sometimes people doing crazy calls with a low PP's without a flushdraw etc, but overshoving is good only when you play against a crack addict who will call any flop shove and you have the nuts;) - otherweise it would be bad in general :)
GL.