Coffeeyay continues with Part 3 of a 6 part series. The videos are Hand History reviews with selected interesting hands. He focuses on tough spots and does in depth analysis to try to find maximally exploitive lines to take through a variety of interesting hand histories. In this video he discusses implied odds, showdown value, bet sizing and turning your hand into a bluff.
His Math in HUSNGs video pack has helped many players improve their study habits, decision making and knowledge in hyper turbo poker.
Hey coffee, can you explain why you think the river bet is a good one in the 2nd hand and why you think the river ace is a good one for us to barrel?
Unless we have prior dynamics that we've established with this specific reg, our line does not seem very strong or conducive to a river bluff. I mean, let's go through the hands we take this line with.
Limp pre ---> villain takes the large majority of Ax our of range (if not all)
Cb K87 ----> Fine obv. As you said tho, when villain flats he is extremely value/pair oriented.
Chkbk 3 ---> what value hands would we do this with? 3x? Maybe 7x?
Bet riv A ----> If our opponent doesn't give us credit for limping an ace deep (90%+ of regs won't imo) then all that's left for us to thin vb is 7x (which most guys won't even do) and, like, pretty much nothing else.
So looking at our perceived range (more important than our actual range), seems as if villain can happily snap us off with any pair and I'd argue that his call is 100% fine here.
Of course, if we've actually established an Ax deep limping dynamic with this opponent (something I know you recommend, but I'm assuming this was not the case here since your student did not include reads to indicate that), our line becomes a little better, but for just 70 chips I feel like most opponents will make us prove we have the ace there even still. I mean, vs a range of 7x, a small portion of Ax and a whole lot of bluffs, seems like villain can pretty happily make this call with pretty much any pair, any A and maybe even Qhi.
Thoughts?
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Sentin, it seems I completely missed the limp pre (even asking if villain flats Ax pre haha) so my analysis was based around us being in a minraised pot where we have all of our Ax in range (and in our perceived range). My bad!
Your analysis is pretty spot on given that it's actually a limped pot--it's a very clear spot to give up with all of our bluffing range because our perceived range on this run out is incredibly weak. b/f flop give up is definitely optimal with our hand.
FWIW I don't think we should be limping this hand vs a reg in the first place. If we assumed it was a limped pot vs a fish where it's likely a very good limp, then I would likely 3 barrel given the run out and if we checked turn the river is an ok good bluff because we don't need to worry about our perceived range.
haha ok. ya, river bet definitely makes A TON more sense in a mr pot. And ya, for sure agree with triple barreling this vs a fish.
Thanks for clearing that up.
:)
ps. i made my own mistake in the previous post, saying our opponent can easily call us with any ace on river (meaning Ahi), but obv an ace makes top pair....so not much of a herocall there lol.
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