Hi here´s a hand. Check raised open ended on flop and was thinking of check shoving the turn actually but the equity of my hand diminished drastically.
[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $5 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
[url="http://www.holdemmanager.com/affdata/PASG-LLC/twoplustwo/"]Poker Tools[/url] Powered By [url="http://www.holdemmanager.com/affdata/PASG-LLC/twoplustwo/"]Holdem Manager[/url] - The Ultimate [url="http://www.holdemmanager.com/affdata/PASG-LLC/twoplustwo/"]Poker Software[/url] Suite.
[b]Hero (BB): 1,246 (62.3 bb)[/b]
[b]SB: 1,754 (87.7 bb)[/b]
[b]Preflop[/b]: Hero is BB with K:heart: Q:heart:
[color="red"]SB raises to 60[/color], Hero calls 40
[b]Flop[/b]: (120) T:heart: 5:diamond: J:spade:[color="blue"] (2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, [color="red"]SB bets 60[/color], [color="red"]Hero raises to 210[/color], SB calls 150
[b]Turn[/b]: (540) 7:club:[color="blue"] (2 players)[/color]
Hero checks, [color="red"]SB bets 240[/color], [color="grey"]Hero folds[/color]
[spoil][b]Results:[/b] 540 pot
Final Board: T:heart: 5:diamond: J:spade: 7:club:
Hero mucked K:heart: Q:heart: and lost (-270 net)
SB mucked and won 540 (270 net)
[/spoil][/hand_history][/converted_hand]
What do you think?
If you have the raw HH just paste it and I'll get it fixed up in your post.
It depends on what is in villain's: open range, cbet range, continue vs c/r range, bet turn when checked to range and call a jam on the turn range.
S = 62.3 BB
Pre Flop Hero = [KhQh]
P0 = 1.5 BB
Villain raises 2.5 BB with 3x range of [?]
P1 = 1.5 + 2.5 = 4.0 BB
Hero calls 2.0 BB
P2 = 4.0 + 2.0 = 6.0 BB
Flop [Th5dJs]
Hero checks, planning to check raise vs villains cbet range of [?]
Villain cbets 0.5 P2 = 3.0 BB
P3 = 6.0 + 3.0 = 9.0 BB
Hero c/r 7.5 BB
P4 = 7.0 + 7.5 = 14.5 BB
Villain calls (7.5 - 3.0) = 4.5 BB with call c/r range of [?]
P5 = 18.5 BB
Turn [Th5dJs] [7c]
Hero checks
Villain bets 0.65 P5 = 12.0 BB with bet turn when checked to range of [?]
P6 = 30.5 BB
Hero folds
The c/r on the flop likely narrows villain's range significantly.
If he continues with top pair or better plus his OESD he has a range of: [J, AA - TT, T5, 55, KQ, 98] = 184 combos
Note we are implicitly assuming that he doesn't raise any of these hands.
Against this range, hero has 26% equity on [Th5dJs7c].
Hero is being offered odds of 12 / (12 + 18.5) = 39% to call.
Clearly, it will be unprofitable to make a call here if no extra money goes in.
You are interested in whether you can jam this turn => my intuition says his bet sizing suggests a value range but let's consider the EV of jamming.
Assuming villain will call a jam on the turn with an estimated range [AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, T5, AA-TT, 55, 98] = 85 combos.
This means he will call 85/184 = 46% of the time (if he is betting the turn with his entire continue vs c/r range).
Against this range our [KhQh] has 21% equity.
Therefore:
EV(jam) = 0.54 * 30.5 + 0.46 * (0.21 * 2 * 62.3 - (62.3 - (1.0 + 2.0 + 7.5)))
EV(jam) = 16.47 + 0.46 * (-25.6)
EV(jam) = 4.69 BB
=> A jam on the turn will be profitable if the above range assumptions and villain tendencies are true.
HOWEVER, you really need to know more about how villain plays to know how much fold equity you have when he bets the turn when checked to.
For a given amount of folds, f (function of how much of his range he bets when checked to on the turn after calling a check raise on the flop).
EV(jam) = f * 30.5 + (1 - f) * (-25.6)
For example, if villain checks back his marginal hands (weak made hands & drawing hands) on the turn, then you will not have as much fold equity (say 20%) and will be jamming into a world of pain.
EV(jam) = 0.2 * 30.5 + 0.8 * (-25.6)
EV(jam) = -14.38 BB
If the estimate of villain's calling a jam range is correct, and we have 21% equity, we can calculate how often villain needs to fold for a jam to be profitable:
EV(jam) = 0
0 = f * (30.5) + (1 - f) * (-25.6)
solve for f
f = 25.6 / 56.1 = 46%
So given the assumptions we made, if villain folds more than 46% of the time to a jam, jamming is better than folding.
Maybe someone with more experience in deeper stacked play (I play hypers) can comment on typical villain ranges for opening, cbeting this flop, continuing vs c/r and firing turn IP when checked to?
I'm guessing most players don't continue against a check raise without a pretty strong range and probably don't have much of a bet-fold range on the turn.
thanks cdon for that reply I agree with your math but I still think we´re too deep to check jam that turn, maybe we do have fold equity but there´s no way villain is folding if we give him that range.
Folding and living through the match to rechip seems better?
Yeah I think you're going to be crushed so often that a fold will be best.
I'd fold, knowing that the flop c/r semibluff will generally be profitable in its own right and that you just ran into the top of his range this time.
If I picked up a strong hand on the flop OOP later in the match I would definitely take the line c/r flop and check turn if called to metagame villain into making a bad turn stab.