Hello errorpoker

An interesting spot.

With 2s you raised to 40, the big blind raised to $110,

So you are calling 70 hoping to flop a set and win his entire stack. The odds of flopping a set or better is around 12%. Hypers start at $500 a much shallower stack depth than turbos or regulars with 1,500 which have much better implied odds.

Even though it is only 70 more, other options were pushing or folding. His range predicted would be high pairs, AK-AQ-A-J-A10 and occasional air. If you push you are likely to be facing a coin flop or be massively behind a higher pair, so I don’t like shoving. You called 70 and the flop came ace high. Pot $220 He led out on an ace high flop for half the pot, the ace is in his range and his most common unpaired hand contains so you folded.

I would also have min raised to 40 with your hand and folded on the flop to a ½ pot continuation bet. The area of contention is whether to call 70 more chips with a hand that doesn’t particularly pay well post flop. Readless, I marginally prefer folding in that spot, though I cannot be certain that it is the best play, the flop raise suggests to me that the implied odds are not quite enough to call if we are calling pre flop to flop a set or better at a $500 starting stack depth and opponent in this hand had $470, I don’t think the implied odds are there. The problem is even if he doesn’t have a pair and we miss the flop, highly likely, the hand is not strong enough to call a continuation bet in most circumstances.

Standard open jam in hypers because it has good preflop equity vs even tight calling ranges and it is hard to play well post flop.

Calling a 3b preflop then giving up when you miss the flop is going to be the lowest EV possible in my opinion.

FYI:

EV of open jam from the button can be calculated using:

EV = f*P + (1-f)*(2*S*e - J)

where:

f = % of time villain folds to jam = (1-call%)
P = pot = 1.5BB
S = effective stack size
e = equity vs villain's calling range
J = amount you jam = (S-0.5)

For a given equity (e) vs calling range (c) of:

[c,e]
[10%,39%]
[20%,43%]
[30%,45%]
[40%,46%]
[50%,47%]
[60%,48%]
[70%,48%]
[80%,49%]
[90%,50%]
[100%,50%]

^^ calculated using
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations

EV of open jamming [22] vs % calling range (c) at various hyper effective stacks is calculated below:

S [25,20,15,10,5]

c
10% <0.8, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3>
20% <0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2>
30% <0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0>
40% <0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9>
50% <0.3, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9>
60% <0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8>
70% <0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7>
80% <0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6>
90% <0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6>
100% <0.7, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5>

Note open jamming 22 in hyper turbos is going to be +EV and is definitely the easiest way to play the hand (you won't have difficult decisions post flop).

It is also interesting, that generally the tighter your opponent calls jams, the higher your EV because you are making so much from fold equity.

Additionally, as effective stack sizes decrease, the EV of open jamming increases.

This is easier to visualise if you graph the result.