Context: ~ 5% ROI @ $7 hypers on stars
Reviewing my database, the majority of my expectation is coming from playing IP and I am bleeding chips OOP vs raise opens. I think this is a combination of folding too much to raises OOP and playing too fit-or-fold postflop OOP in single raised pots.
To plug this leak I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to realise our equity / find profitable spots postflop with marginal hands that we can’t fold to wide min raisers preflop but would be value owning ourselves 3b.
The dilemma is against “typical” button opening range of 70%+ hands like Kx3y have more than enough equity to call preflop but we can’t profitably call and fold to a cbet if we don’t hit a K against wide openers + frequent cbetters.
Check-calling on dry flops allows us to realise our equity against opponents who fire once and then give up if they don’t have a hand.
But against more aggressive players who will by default barrel IP I feel like we need to find spots to attack them where their range is weak and/or our perceived range is strong to play these marginal hands profitably.
I’ve been experimenting with c/r NAI bluffing flops which hit our perceived OOP flatting range (2 cards between 8 & Q ish) and boards like J32 r.
Boards which seem prime for c/r bluff jamming on are low paired boards.
My thinking is that if villain is opening 70%+ then cbetting their entire range on something like 744r (or even two tone), K high has so much equity vs villain’s range but will be difficult to realise our equity on most turn & river cards.
On this board it is also effectively the top of our range (because we’re 3b jamming Ax vs a wide opener and we don’t have many 7x or 4x in our OOP flatting range) but if we float only to give up to a turn barrel then we are usually giving away our equity at a significant discount to its fair value.
I feel like we don’t really represent anything but villain still can’t call with the most of his range (sort of analogous to jamming low pocket pairs preflop).
What are people’s thoughts on c/r jamming K high on low paired boards vs wide openers + frequent cbetters:
@20-25BB
@15-20 BB
Also more generally, can anyone give some advice for playing marginal hands OOP postflop in single raised pots?
@20-25BB?
@15-20BB?
The more likely he is to cbet the less often you should call.
Also known as the reverse implied odds of calling.
And if you are not getting the odds to call then all you can do 3bet which does not take this into account as it is then for you to cbet.
If you min 3bet then for the price of one big blind you reduce his positional advantage (as a check post flop could now be to induce) and strip him of his opportunity to cbet which seems like good value at 20+bb especially when you consider that most opponents consider a min 3bet to be super strong.
This then frees you up to 3bet shove with the top of your range which is then more likely to get called by a weaker hand as your 3bet frequency has been increased as it has now been balanced. HUDs 3bet stats don't differentiate between 3bet shoves and non-shoves.
The shallower you get the more calling oop becomes a waste of time,imo, unless perhaps you are yet to 3bet in which case your calling range is not capped in his eyes.
Thanks for your comments.
I like the idea of taking the initative back preflop and attacking villain's wide opening range.
I tend to 3b jam a wide value range as default because I figure I make more from my value hands than I lose from coolers but against these more competent opponents I like your suggestion of 3b NAI with some bluffs to give him more opportunities to make mistakes against both the value (call too much) & bluff (fold too much) parts of a more polarised 3b range.
Do you have an effective stack inflection point where you stop calling OOP and simply widen your 3b jamming range against these wide openers?
There must be a theoretical effective stack indifference point where the marginal postflop expectation from flatting OOP becomes lower than the marginal preflop fold equity expectation from 3b a wide opener with those borderline hands...
I haven't worked out an inflection point mathematically but I will think about it.
The other thing to note is that when you are calling with hands just because they are suited or connected you are doing so because of implied odds.
And the shallower we get the less the potential maximum implied odds become.
My experience at the $3.50/$7.00 level has been that checkraising dry boards against the kind of opponent who frequently double/triple barrels air is a recipe for getting jammed on (eg. my experience has been that a board like K74 is better to checkraise bluff than J32 or 744 since it is more believable that you connected meaningfully with it).
Against very aggressive opponents, I slow down my play so that we play less hands before it gets to the 15/30 blind level where I play much better against aggressive opponents since I can checkraise jam middle pair from the BB. With 450 chips at the 15/30 blind level being only 15BB, I'm already in a situation where I can more or less play push/fold against these aggressive opponents, flatting only stuff that plays very well postflop (e.g. Broadways, J9o). It's so much easier to jam stuff like 78s than to try to play it in the big blind against someone who you know is going to double/triple barrel you when you usually have at best middle pair. If they're still opening 70%+ at the 15/30 blind level, pretty much everything is now +EV as a 3Bet shove assuming they aren't particularly loose in their calling range (which is certainly an unfair assumption to make against some aggressive opponents). Another bonus of the 15/30 blind level is that many aggressive players widely expand their 3Bet shove range which we can totally take advantage of e.g. with Mersenneary's ROFL chart.
I don't think there is any way to play against these very aggressive opponents at 25BB other than to fold stuff like Kx3y even if your aggressive opponent is opening 70% (or 100% for that matter) unless you are doing stuff like checkraise bluffing, something I rarely do and without which it is clearly unprofitable against these aggressive opponents for me to play Kx3y-type hands from 25BB. You don't hit your one live card often enough...