Sorry if I'm making too many threads on this forum. I'll do it on 2+2 if it bothers you.
I played this hand 3 minutes ago and felt like I got rewarded for a retard - shovecall. I just don't know if it's slightly bad, okay in a vacuum, or really terrible.
The issue is villains range. It's the 3rd hand of the match, and he 3bet my first 2.5x button open to 8bb. It might have been for strong value but it's also possible he is a maniac. In this hand, he's repping TT up to AA when he shoves on me on the flop. It's very likely he has one of those hands, and if my 3 ace + 8 straight outs are live I don't think the call can be bad, if you take into account what's already in the pot. Maybe I should not have check raised on the flop, but I don't want to be barreled off a hand with such mega equity either. If I check call and the straight hits I don't think I ever get paid
PokerStars Hand #104332303101: Tournament #790422396, $6.71+$0.29 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2013/09/19 5:20:56 ET Table '790422396 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: TryH@rderFi$ (1480 in chips) Seat 2: Aleks-bik (1520 in chips) Aleks-bik: posts small blind 10 TryH@rderFi$: posts big blind 20 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to TryH@rderFi$ [Ac 9c] Aleks-bik: raises 40 to 60 TryH@rderFi$: calls 40 *** FLOP *** [6d 7h 8s] TryH@rderFi$: checks Aleks-bik: bets 80 TryH@rderFi$: raises 180 to 260 Aleks-bik: raises 1200 to 1460 and is all-in TryH@rderFi$: calls 1160 and is all-in Uncalled bet (40) returned to Aleks-bik *** TURN *** [6d 7h 8s] [5d] *** RIVER *** [6d 7h 8s 5d] [8d] *** SHOW DOWN *** TryH@rderFi$: shows [Ac 9c] (a straight, Five to Nine) Aleks-bik: shows [Qs Qh] (two pair, Queens and Eights) TryH@rderFi$ collected 2960 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 2960 | Rake 0 Board [6d 7h 8s 5d 8d] Seat 1: TryH@rderFi$ (big blind) showed [Ac 9c] and won (2960) with a straight, Five to Nine Seat 2: Aleks-bik (button) (small blind) showed [Qs Qh] and lost with two pair, Queens and Eights
If you are calling the reraise all in why not just XR all-in? His hand will fold more often.
Shove over his 80 cbet, like 4x pot? I try to be balanced with my c/r ranges and I can't balance a 4x pot shove with value/bluffs. Not that that really matters when you have such a load of equity, I think. I doubt that an open shove would give me any more folding equity.
Against a 4x pot shove he's gonna fold the same better hands that fold to the 280cr (AK-AQ-AJ), and call all in when I'm slightly behind (JJ-QQ-KK-AA). He's not gonna fold TT or better vs a 4x pot shove. The only big advantage I see in 4x pot shoving, is that he can't call my check raise, and then move in on me if a blank turn card hits.
That would price me out and really suck. It's what I do with hands like Jc Jh on a board with 3 low spades, because people often check raise with the naked ace of spades on those boards. So by calling the check raise you can play perfectly against it on any turn card that doesn't complete the draw.
I could have just called the 80, but if a blank turn card hits he's gonna fire big and I would have to call, not getting one cent when I hit my hand. Or fold a hand with massive equity which sucks even more. So I think the only play is to get it in on the flop. But I'd be very happy to hear how most people here play that hand
They probably wouldn't call his shove this deep.
i appreciate your analysis of your odds which put you just behind.
But you forget that he could have made a set which means you would have 3 less outs and that if you hit one of the other 8 you could still loose to quads or a full house.
The correct play is pot control. Call his cbet as even if you don't hit an out you could still be ahead.
Earlier on 2+2 I've seen some math wizzards calculating the exact EV of calling vs getting it in.
I'm okay with math if I dedicate myself to it, but I've never done that in poker because I think it's good enough to have a rough guess about folding equity that is required etc.
But here's an attempt, to back up my gut instinct with math. Feel free to tell me if anything is out of line.
When he leads for 80 on the flop, the total pot size is (120+80 = 200) and he has slightly under 1400 behind. If I assume I have 11 live outs vs his value range (8 straight cards and 3 aces) that is willing to get it in, that gives me 11*4.2 = or roughly 45% equity to hit the best hand by the river if it goes all in on the flop.
However, there's also a small chance that his value range has redraws for a full house, or blockers to my straight (my ace isn't live because he has AA, or he blocks my straight outs with TT) So let's assume that the equity I have vs his total value range, is 40% and not 45. I might be out of line but I think that's realistic.
Assuming that he will call my shove 100% of the time, I would need 50% equity to break even in the long run if there was no dead money in the pot. But the dead money in the pot makes it okay to call down with slightly less than 50% equity. I'm not 100% sure how much equity that would be, but it's somewhere between 50 and 40.
Also, he's not calling a shove 100% of the time because he folds AQ+ and maybe some weird random hands to a shove.
I've seen a video about how to calculate required folding equity for a shove to be +EV but I'm no good at that. But I'm very convinced that for a hand with 40% equity and 200 chips in the pot, I wouldn't need a fold more than 15% of the times to make it break even. And if he folds more than that, I'm winning chips. So shoving has to be +EV, but it might not be the most +EV that is available. Let's find out
Compare shoving to pot controlling, and thus calling his 80 cbet.
If I call his bet, that puts the pot size at (120+80+80= 280) and we both have 1300 ish behind.
Assuming his flop cbetting range to be AQ+, TT+ and the occasional weird random hand, I think most players will give up with non overpairs on the turn, and barrel again on any card that does not complete the straight . I have 11 cards that make my hand on the turn, so the odds of hitting on the turn are 11*2.1= roughly 23%. So only one out of 4 times I'm gonna hit, and when I don't he can play perfectly against my hand by pricing me out on a blank turn card. I would have to fold and he picks up 280 chips 77% of the times. And the 23% that I hit, the action stops completely. I don't see how this is more profitable. Let's say the turn is the 2c and he bets 2/3 pot. Now I'd have to call or fold, hoping to hit a hand that has 23% equity to hit on the river and I don't get 1 more chip if I get there.
This is only a rough guess of assumptions that I make, and it's very possible that some of it is no good. Feel free to criticize it, that's why I joined this forum
It all depends on your interpretation of his cbet. I think you mentioned that your read so far was that he was an aggressive player and hence I would imagine his cbet range to include a lot of air. Especially with a drawy board which most of the time is going to scare rather than excite you.
Of course if you think he is only cBetting for value you can expect to face a second barrel unless you shove XR which as you know is not what you want as your estimation of 40-45% equity assumes you see both cards.
It is my natural instinct to always give players credit for the top of their range, which is pretty suicidal for heads up poker.. Grinding the smaller husngs to regain confidence in them has been going pretty well for the first 600 games, but since yesterday afternoon I ran into a load of extremely aggressive players who literally open 100% on the button, 3bet close to 50% of my button raises, cbet 100% of flops and barrel off whenever I call. Calling my 4bet shove with 96s for 30bb and hitting. I had a bad run of cards against those guys and it lead to my first meltdown. It's really odd, I never had that for 600 games and all of a sudden everybody plays like that.
Almost all of those players were losing players, but you're forced to bluffcatch or have a hand and it was extremely frustrating to play them.
I'm getting second thoughts about heads up poker. This has happened so many times. It's as if you're playing a boxing match and all goes well for the first 8 rounds. But in the 9th round you're getting tired and just have no defence anymore. I am just punching around without a plan, being soo tilted I can't even see straight and when the exhaustion is near my bankroll is at risk. The only plan I could come up with being card dead was to barrel 3 streets and I got check called down almost every time.
I guess heads up is just not for me
I think you have stated the problem already which is you are playing too defensively and your opponents have probably detected this. Heads up is quite intimate and any leaks you have will be punished quickly. But on the other hand you also become aware of them more quickly. I think heads up poker is the best way to get good at poker in general. After all most hands played in the other formats are usually only against one other player.
There is no hiding in heads up poker. You don't have the advantage of full ring which is that you can wait for a decent hand and open and know that he knows that you have got as much and therefore if he continues he must also have something.
600 games is a tiny sample. Variance is high in heads up. Your bankroll should be robust enough that it is not on your mind when you get a run of shoddy cards.
Heads up poker is a fast learning curve and sometimes the 'G' force can hurt. Hang in there and you will be the better player for it.
your too deep to be checkraise calling this off or checkshoving. I think check calling is perfectly fine this deep, and if you think his range is an overpair or better you dont have to be worried about losing value if you hit because your afraid your hand is obvious when you make it, people arent folding overpairs, 2 pairs or sets here on the turn or river at $7 husngs as long as you value bet the right sizings and dont go allin on the river. They will sigh pay it off almost always. I think check call flop and lead turn and value river is much better. Hes gona check back that turn way too much with a lot of his range, leading the turn and value betting river you get more value from his overpair 2pair type hands.