I've started monitoring my winnings graph in HM 3 months ago (I had it configured incorrectly, or to be more specific I didnt have the tournament summary option turned on on PokerStars). I had a few incredibly bad sessions - as if it was set up or something. The result is shown in the graph below.
I've been playing 7's mostly. After over 5000 games I am close to 100 BIs under EV and I am really starting to worry. Can the diference come from the playstayle? Does the AI EV graph really reflect what was happening at the tables? You guys experience something similiar?
regards,
konieczny
I made some comments on the relevance of these graphs in another post. In summary they are only useful once you have an extremely large sample. All in EV graphs are not indicative of RvR EV until you have a sample larger than it would humanly be possible to grind out.
http://www.husng.com/content/just-fun-i-will-go-all-out-and-give-my-best
All in EV graphs are a decent guage of whether you are "getting it in good". This is not RvR EV therefore deviation between your all in EV graph and your results is probably not worth worrying about.
Tanks for stepping by cdon3822. I will quote your original post here
Equity adjusted graphs adjust for the your equity in pots which end up all in or showndown. For example if you get all in preflop with AA vs KK on first hand of hyper you win +500 chips (ignoring blind differential & rake). In this showdown you have ~82% equity. Your equity adjusted EV graph would show your chip EV as ((0.82 * 2 * 500) - 500) = +320 chips This doesn't tell you the EV of the play of your entire range vs villain's entire range at the decision node.
I am no sure if I got you. It doesn't tell that and I don't think it is supposed to do that. It will just show me the equity against KK which should approach to 82% in the long run.
Now take a common spot: c/r jamming strong draws (FD + OESD) vs wide openers + frequent cbetters @ 20-25BB on the flop. Assuming villain will call us off with top pair or better you can work through the calculaltion to find this is a +EV play. HOWEVER, a large part of the expectation comes from the fold equity.EV graphs do not account for this. If you make this play, and run into the top of villains range and he holds to show down, your EV graph will take a turn down.But does this mean it was -EV play? Hell no, its plays like these where good players find their exploitative edges.
I have to disaggre. The graphs do take that into account because if you win the pot without showdown and say, take the chip advantage you play for the smaller pot which will result in a smaller overall EV diff of the match. A real life example - 10$ hu (no rake :)). We C/R villains cbet and take 800-200 chip advantage. On the next hand we flip and win. AI EV will be 0.8 * 10$ + 0/2 * (0.5 - 0.5) * 10$ = 8$ (we always win the 0.8 part and flip for the other). And this comes from the folding equity part of our c/r play.
Yes, but with a caveat in my opinion: understand what EV graphs actually show and how that is different from the EV of how you play your hands vs villain(s) range(s). In equilibrium, EV graphs are increasingly useful the more your expectation is derived from pot equity. In analysing your game to find leaks, consider adding an additional filter. For example, hands which you called an all in.Hands where you call an all in, all that matters is your pot equity vs an opponent's range => none of your expectation comes from fold equity. Also if you're a player that never semi-bluffs or bluffs then the EV graphs will be more meaningful for youBut if you never bluff you're probably leaving a lot of expectation on the table (against all but the biggest calling stations). Ironically looking to EV adjusted graphs to justify your play is (in my opinion) still being too results oriented to make the best play vs villain(s) ranges / tendencies.
100 BI under over 5000 games is a BB per match - this is a huge deviation. You mentioned that playstyle does affect the allin line and this is what I am trying to sort out. I do not believe that pokerstats flagged my account, not believe that I can run that bad. So I guess that the overall game plan and/or leaks must be the main part of this :(
Being over or under your Allin ev line is 100% play style independent since the only place the two lines differ is when you are all in with cards to come (where there is clearly no play involved).
Allen ev is a strictly better indication of your skill than real winnings because it removes some variance by assigning expectation values rather than results. It is still results though, so it still is not 100% accurate, but again is better than actual results.
100BI is a lot, but it's not record breaking or anything. I'm significantly more than that under as an example and many other players I know have been more under. Similarly there are just as many players who are over ev by 100+ BI. Fwiw a lot of those players tend to believe that real results are better than ev line and that being over ev is thanks to skill. It's not since again the only place the lines differ are in pure luck situations. You can imagine its easy to fall into see kinds of mental traps. The most important thing is to always focus on improving your game as we all can get better.
The shape of your EV line deviates from your results line when you get all in with cards to come (randomness is still a factor).
Your playstyle does affect the frequency that this happens and therefore the shape of your EV line.
Whether you run over or under does not really matter as they are both measures of short term results.
As your sample approaches infinite, both lines will approach your EV.
Discussing this is interesting but not really practically adding to your poker profitability?
I said that playstyle doesn't change whether you're over or under ev. I agree that playstyle can create a greater likelyhood of being more BI over or under in the first place, (as in the obvious example of where you never go allin!) but always the likelyhood of being 100BI over EV = likelyhood of being 100BI under EV for one player.
Understanding EV can add confidence that you're doing well at your stakes, or alert you to issues of focus, in a strictly better way than results. It can also help you in decisions to move up/move down in estimating ROI and then applying Kelly criterion. Definitely important for poker profitability---being profitable is definitely not all about strat ;)
Good points.
If you have a chance, can you please post your thoughts about estimating flatting expectation?
http://www.husng.com/content/micro-hypers-playing-ax-readless-bb-0