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maddog's picture
mr/fold Q10s 11bb deep?

Is it okay mr/fold Q10s 11bb deep against  opponent  with  low 3bet% and low VPIP? I usually minraise it because of the low VPIP, but if he 3bet shoves I just cant decide what to do, call or not. Maybe I should limp instead, despite the fact he has low VPIP, to avoid this situation?

cdon3822's picture
Fold

Fold vs this villain.
For raise-calling to be better than raise-folding with QxTx @ 11BB, villain needs to be 3b jamming > top 23% of hands.
Expectation of raise-calling vs top X % 3b Jam range:

 
[3b Jam]

 
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%

S = 11.0
-1.8
-1.2
-0.6
-0.2
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.1

 
Against nitfish villains you make so much from the fold equity it's probably still better to raise-fold but limping wouldn't be bad either because he's not going attack you without a hand you're behind and your hand plays so well postflop vs his check vs limp range.

coffeeyay's picture
QTs is almost never a

QTs is almost never a minr/fold at any depth (turns out even 25bb it's a call vs the PokerStars population at around the $30-$100 stake level!), This is 11bb deep it's a snap call--even if villain is shoving: QQ-22,A2+ it's .75bb better called than folded.

QQ-22,A7s+,A6o+
still a call

QQ-22,A8s+,A9o+
still a call!
22+,A8s+,A9o+ (now has KK-AA)
Now it's finally not a call, but is still only .15bb worse so not that big of a deal.
Not sure where you're going wrong cdon, but I think the major thing is that no one shoves top X% of hands (and top X% is usually a pretty bad ordering fwiw), you can always exclude big PP and you they shove more Ax and low PP than most top X% ranges shows. It's interesting though because adding in KQ does change a fair bit. But even so, vs a fairly tight 14.5% range
QQ-22,A6s+,A8o+,KJs+,KQo
QTs is still a call.

You need to have a ton of stuff like QJ KT and not as much low Ax and low PP to make QTs a fold. I don't think that's very realistic.

 

cdon3822's picture
Is there something wrong with my math??

Min raise call @ 11BB
There are 1.5 BB in the pot from the blinds and then you min raise 1.5 BB
P = 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 BB
You get jammed on so have to call (11 - 2) = 9.0 BB
for your equity share in 2 * S = 22.0 BB
You need (9.0 / 22.0) =  41% equity to be indifferent between calling and folding once you have min raised and then get jammed on
 
This corresponds to the top 23% of hands.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=QxTx&h2=23%25&s=generic
I agree it's not ideal way of modelling it. 
 
So take a more realistic range of Ax & PP:[ AA-22,AxKx-Ax2x,AxKy-Ax2y]
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=QxTx&h2=AA-22%2CAxKx-Ax2x%2CAxKy-Ax2y&s=generic
Against this range we have 43% equity => a marginally profitable raise-call with QxTx @ 11BB
 
But the poster specified that the villain was tight, meaning his 3b jam range would be tighter than this, likely reducing QxTx equity to less than the required 41%.
 
Against the range you specified: AxKx-Ax6x,AxKy-Ax8y,KxQx,KxJx,KxQy,QQ-22
QxTx has barely enough equity to call.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=he&h1=QxTx&h2=AxKx-Ax6x%2CAxKy-Ax8y%2CKxQx%2CKxJx%2CKxQy%2CQQ-22&s=generic
 
I'm not sure how you can say it is a snap call (especially as you get deeper)?
Is there something wrong with my math?