Hi,
Happend that im in this spot a few times and not sure if folding is the best option...
Have middle pair and straight draw but have got burnt too many times in similar situations when the villain jams like this with top pair.
Cdon could you walk me through the math please if you see this post ?
Cheers.TC.
TheCleaner01 (610 in chips)
gassalig (390 in chips)
TheCleaner01: posts small blind 10
gassalig: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheCleaner01 [Th 7h]
TheCleaner01: raises 20 to 40
gassalig: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [7s 9c 6s]
gassalig: checks
TheCleaner01: bets 40
gassalig: raises 310 to 350 and is all-in
TheCleaner01: folds...
Once you get jammed on this is a simple pot odds problem.
S = 390 / 20 = 19.5 BB <<== effective stacks
SB = 0.5 BB
BB = 1.0 BB
P0 = 0.5 + 1.0 = 1.5 BB <<== pot after blinds posted
R = 1.5 BB
P1 = 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 BB
C = 1.0 BB
P2 = 1.0 + 3.0 = 4.0 BB <<== single min raised pot on flop
Cb = 2.0 BB <<== cbet
P3 = 4.0 + 2.0 = 6.0 BB
J = S - 1.0 - 1.0 = 19.5 - 1.0 - 1.0 = 17.5 BB <== villain jams over you
P4 = 6.0 + 17.5 = 23.5 BB
C = S - 0.5 - 1.5 - 2.0 = 19.5 - 0.5 - 1.5 - 2.0 = 15.5 BB <<== amount you have to call
P5 = 23.5 + 15.5 = 39 BB <<== pot after you call
check 2S = 2*19.5 = 39 BB (OK)
So you have to call 15.5 BB to win a pot of 39.0 BB.
In order to call here you need 15.5 / 39.0 ~ 38% equity
Villain can be c/r jamming here with 9x for sure but he can also be c/r jamming straight draws and flush draws.
If he's jamming bare 9x, you have about 30% equity.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=9c7s6s&g=he&h1=Th7h&h2=9x&s=generic
If he's jamming a FD + 2 overs you're flipping (slightly behind) with 48% equity.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=9c7s6s&g=he&h1=Th7h&h2=QsJs&s=generic
If he's jamming something like a gutshot + 2 overs you have about 70% equity.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=9c7s6s&g=he&h1=Th7h&h2=JcTc&s=generic
If he jamming with a random bluff (eg Kx) you have about 70% equity.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=9c7s6s&g=he&h1=Th7h&h2=Kx&s=generic
If we split these parts of his range into [value 9x] and [bluffs + semibluffs].
equity vs [value] ~ 30%
equity vs [bluffs + semi bluffs] ~ 60%
Let x be the subset of [value] hands in his range.
Therefore (1-x) is the subset of [bluffs + semi-bluffs] in his range.
We can solve for x to find the amount of value hands villain needs to have that we would be indifferent between calling and folding.
EV(call) = e * P5 - C
e = x * e[x] + (1-x) * e[1-x] = x * 0.3 + (1-x) * 0.6 = 0.3x + 0.6 - 0.6x = 0.6 - 0.3x
Solve for x where EV(call) = 0, P5 = 39.0 BB & C = 15.5 BB
0 = (0.6 - 0.3 x) * 39 - 15.5
x = ((15.5 / 39) - 0.6) / -0.3 = 0.675 ~ 68%
So if villain's c/r jam range is composed of > 68% [value] hands we should fold.
If not, we should call.
This is where our reads come in. If we have the read that villain plays his draws passively, only c/r jamming with made hands (common tendency at microstakes) then this could become a fold.
By raw combinations, there are so many more [bluffs + semi-bluff] than [value] hands that this should be a call vs anyone who has demonstrated any understanding of the value of aggression in heads up no limit holdem @ low effective stacks. But against the passive nitfish a fold here could be defensible.
Remember you only need 38% equity to call here.
=> You can "get burned" up to 62% of the time and still be better calling :)
Also your cbet decision should already have incorporated into it:
{ I am bet calling here
{ I am bet folding here
{ I am checking back and bluff catching here depending on how the board runs out
==>>Based on how your actions will manipulate your opponent's range and which line yields the best expectation vs their specific tendencies.
You shouldn't be making the decision after you get jammed on because that means you're not really thinking about whether cbetting is the correct play or not.
Hi Cdon,
Thanks for taking the time out for such a comprehensive reply, I owe you a beer next time your in Berlin :-)
The math is clear and your last point regarding the 'after making the decision' really rings true.
Many THANKS:
Good Luck and speak soon,
TC.
Go forth and CRUSH !
I kinda get the math you did there cdon, bits here and there that trip me up...how did you learn to calculate the above^? Is there a go to book/ video? or are you just a natural math guru?
The math posted is effectively just solving two linear equations by substituing one into the other (~ high school level math).
Like poker, math is a relative skillset: you can spend your life learning it and still have more to learn :)
If you want to build some muscles in that part of your poker game:
Coffeeyay's math videos provide an excellent introduction to the practical math of HUSNGs.
He derives some equations used for analysing common HUSNG decisions, then applies them to yield a first principle understanding of fundamentally solid play.
If you only took the results and applied them, they would benefit you greatly for thinking about these specific examples.
But the real value in this methodology is that it teaches you how to derive an analytical framework for thinking about these situations.
This will have a compounding benefit on your game because:
- you can apply the same logical process to derive results for new decisions you encounter while playing
- you will develop an appreciation for the sensitivity of expectation to deviations in key variables (that is, understand how the correct decision can change radically vs different opponent tendencies)
I haven't seen his videos on data mining population tendencies by applying Baynesian statistics but it sounds pretty damn sexy.
Some books which I really enjoyed but wouldn't recommend to the non-math inclined:
- The Mathematics of Poker (Chen)
- Expert Heads Up No Limit Holdem (Tipton)
Hey mate,
Thanks for the detailed reply. I've never been very math inclined; while I had to do intro to stats at uni I never properly understood the last two topic....Multiple linear regression and time series! :/
So far in poker i've used poker psychology and putting myself in others shoes to try and win; so I definetly think learning even the basics will help, Just the other day I was in a spot on my laptop without pt or hem and wanted to calc the math after but didn't have a clue how.
Practice makes perfect so I'll give it a shot!
Once again thanks for your reply.
(Sorry for interupting your thread cleaner)