The only hand that really makes sense for him to have here is 97, 85 or 86.
Can you bluff catch in this river spot when villain jams over an OOP river value lead representing such a narrow range?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| BB | Hero | 572 | |
| SB | Pawcio77777 | 428 |
Effective Stacks: 21bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
Pawcio77777 raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, Pawcio77777 bets 40, Hero calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
Hero checks, Pawcio77777 checks
River (160, 2 players)
Hero bets 80, Pawcio77777 goes all-in 348, Hero folds
Final Pot: 320
Pawcio77777 wins 588 ( won +160 )
Hero lost -160
No one answers yet so I chuck in my 1cents worth.
Is it really a bluff catch as you say he can only really have two pair ?
Would suggest chk raise him to 150 appx half his stack and try to push him off on the flop, would put him under considerable pressure to continue.
With the low kicker would proceed causiously when called.
Go forth and CRUSH !
I'm still learning the game, but here's my humble opinion:
Good fold. I do not see what kind of hand he would bluff the river, but not the turn. I mean if he decided to go crazy bluffing, why would he wait for the river?
I believe the most important villain move to analyze here is his turn check in conjunction with his river shove. That's what we should try to understand by disecting his range:
1) Is he checking because he has absolutely nothing and doesn't want to take another stab? Then as I said before why does he get crazy on the river? It's not like A8 would shove after the rivered pair of 8s, it's a clear call (or maybe a fold if he's very tight and afraid of Qx, str8's or str8 draws turned two pair). -> doesn't make sense, the only reason for such a move would be the weakness you have displayed throughout the hand.
2) Is he checking because he is trapping? This includes a turned set (33) or a flopped/turned two-pair (Q3, Q5, Q6) or set (66,55,QQ). Since you called the flop OOP showing that you do have something, and there are many draws out there, the last option doesn't make sense either (he should have bet the turn with those), while the turned set really depends on the type of villain (some people seem to like checking back turned monsters in order to extract thin value on the river). But even so, it's still unlikely.
We sort of eliminated the lower and upper parts of his turn range so far. Let's continue:
3) He is checking a medium-value hand. This could be:
a) 6x, 5x -> makes sense to shove the river if it's 68/58
b) Qx -> makes sense to shove the river if it's Q8
c) flush draw (AXd) -> doesn't make sense to shove the river (see reason 1); however, he might do it if he's aggressive enough and want's to attack your weak-looking range after you checked both the flop and turn. But I believe such an aggressive guy would also bet the turn, not just take the free card.
d) a medium pair -> only one that makes sense to shove the river is 88
e) a turned small pair of 3's -> also only makes sense to shove river if it's 83
So to gather up a summary of hands that "make sense" for his actions: 68,58,Q8,88,83. They all beat your pair of Qs. The pot is 588 and you need to call 268, meaning you need to beat him at least 31.3% of the time. While there are indeed some possible bluffs (missed fd or stone-cold bluffs), they're simply not that many to make it profitable (don't forget we also need to fear those unlikely flopped/turned monsters he decided to check back for deception).
The flop is extremely dry which is why I c/c rather than c/r with top pair and 2 lower cards to the board.
Villain should be barrelling a lot of turns and I think we get more value from c/c then either leading turn or c/c or c/r depending on turn card and how it hits villain's range.
If there was a FD on the flop, I'd prefer c/r NAI to give him room to jam his FDs
I think he should be barrelling his Qx on the turn.
Hands that might check back are 6x, 5x, Ax, Kx + gutshots etc that benefit from free card and some air that gives up when his cbet is called.
This conditionally affects the range he plays the river with.
There are plenty of single paired hands which can pay off a river lead after the turn goes check check and I figure he's unlikely to turn his weak made hands into a bluff by raising a river lead.
When I lead river I expect to get looked up a lot by 8x & 6x.
Given the range he gets to the river with I was pretty surprised when he reraised.
The overbet jam really polarises his range between nuts and air with only a very narrow range of value hands making sense given the turn check back.
Readless, I don't think there's enough air in a typical overbet jamming range to bluff catch here but it feels close because the value holdings he represents are so narrow.
In hindsight I think I actually like a turn lead when it brings an undercard to villain's showdown value holdings which he can continue with.