Is there value in betting this river when checked to after checking back the turn?
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | Hero | 500 | |
| BB | tothszabina | 500 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, tothszabina calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
tothszabina checks, Hero bets 40, tothszabina calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
tothszabina checks, Hero checks
River (160, 2 players)
tothszabina checks, Hero checks
Final Pot: 160
Hero shows two pair, Jacks and Nines
tothszabina shows two pair, Jacks and Deuces
Hero wins 160 ( won +80 )
tothszabina lost -80
It is difficult to judge, if there is so little information, about your opponent. Versus an unknown I don't see lots of value here. He is not gonna call with a 2 (unless he is a super mega hyper bombastic endless stupid fish) and not with a 3. Maybe you get value from 88, but for more this is just to fin value - if it is value at all. There are more combinations of Ts and Js that he will call you with.
Hi.
Why would he check on the river with a jack after also checking on the turn?? Besides that why would he have 10? Why would he called the c-bet then, with A10 maybe (which would most likely be a 3-bet pre-flop) or K10. In any case It is not that likely that he has a 10. It is more likely that he he has an ace high with weak kicker or hit a pair on the flop. The option are pretty limited on this flop and after this flop he just wanted a cheap showdown, which he got.
LVT
Like i said before; we have no reads on this opponent. It is not uncommon for players on this stakes to slow down, when there are three cards of the same color on the board. Why would he give you credit for a hand that he is as good as no equity against, with an hand like T9, QT, KT or AT if there are two Jacks on the Board? If there were a single Jack, he might put you on top pair and fold several combinations.
In your oppinion; what hand would he call the cbet with, call your river bet and not have you beat?
Hi.
I agree. Thanks for your comments, much appreciated.
I should be a bit clearer about my thinking during the hand:
When I cbet and get called on JJ2 tt, I put my assumed weak passive villain (because that is the bulk of the population) on FD, 2x, Jx, Kx, and some weaker Ax that didn't 3b pre.
The Ts completes his FDs, and 2x, Kx and the Ax are not calling down 3 streets so I decide to check back the turn and bluff catch the river depending what I interpret his sizing means if he leads out.
Most of the time he will lead Jx and his flushes on the river. He will check his other holdings to me (because passive players won't turn weak SDV into a bluff). But you will occassionally play someone that flopped Jx that decides to slowplay c/r this river spot. These are more or less cancelled out by the times you get villains who, as Barrin said, shut down to check-call mode when there are 3 cards to a flush on the board and get scared.
On the river, when checked to, I have a decision between bet-folding for thin value or checking back.
I should bet if I believe >= 50% of the hands he will call with I am ahead of.
His 2x, Kx and Ax will probably be more curious than usual after I take a flop bet, turn check back, river bet line. So there is some value here.
But, on reflection, I don't think there is enough that I can thin value bet here because I'm actually not putting a lot of stock in him having a lot of 2x & Ax in his preflop flatting range and I think most players will only float one street with Kx.
If I do bet here, it should be a sizing to target Kx specifically => as laruents said, something like 40 chips into 160.
The way I see it is that your check on the turn is very weak. If you wanna bluf (a bluf he could have set up since postflop, could be but very unlickely though at this level) or have a made hand you lead out on the river in 90% of the cases with a potsized or halfsized bet. If you don't, you want showdown value with your weak aces and bottompairs. The way I look at his range is that 95% of his hands want a cheap showdown (Ax, Kx and 2x) and 5% could be strangely played slowplays, some low pairs he didn't 3-bet pre-flop or some stupid calls on the flop with Q10 or 10-9 which in many cases he would even bet on the river.
LVT
I think there is value here. A 40 chips bet on the river seems solid.
LVT
Hey, I played a hand which was very similar to this one.
Thought you might be interested to see it.
(pretty weird hand for villain to show up with in his preflop flatting range, but sigh passive fish will be passive)
In this case there was value on the river :)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
SB
Hero
500
BB
JKJoKie
500
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, JKJoKie calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
JKJoKie checks, Hero bets 40, JKJoKie calls 40
Turn (160, 2 players)
JKJoKie checks, Hero checks
River (160, 2 players)
JKJoKie checks, Hero bets 40, JKJoKie calls 40
Final Pot: 240
Hero shows two pair, Sevens and Sixes
JKJoKie shows
Hero wins 240 ( won +120 )
JKJoKie lost -120
Nice one (-, another 8% of his stack in your pocket.
LVT