Destined to lose my stack here?
I think it's just a cooler but any suggestions for better play welcome :)
No Limit Holdem Tournament • 2 Players
$6.85+$0.15
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
| SB | StealAAwin | 510 | |
| BB | Hero | 490 |
Effective Stacks: 25bb
Blinds 10/20
Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is BB
StealAAwin raises to 40, Hero calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
Hero checks, StealAAwin checks
Turn (80, 2 players)
Hero bets 40, StealAAwin raises to 100, Hero goes all-in 450, StealAAwin calls 350
River (980, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: 980
StealAAwin shows four of a kind, Fours
Hero shows two pair, Nines and Eights
StealAAwin wins 980 ( won +490 )
Hero lost -490
Yes. It sucks that he did not made a c-bet when you have two pair and the board is very volatile. It sucks to be in this position on the turn when you hit two pair on the flop and you have no idea what this guy has. I do not know exactly what I would do, maybe if he would be a very very tight player I could have folded but otherwise I would take a long time to call and hope he has some bluffs in his range when he bets on the river or bet a bit smaller because he got scared of the board or is afraid you would fold on a big riverbet.
LVT
What do you put him on the turn, that makes you going all in here?
Hi.
which hands is he checking back OTF?
Ax, Kx, gutshots like QJ, weak openenders like 73 and a lot of 6x and 8x and he could also be slowplaying a monster like 5s7s (if that is a good idea is another question of course)
now the turn is pretty much a blank, but he puts in a raise. would he do that with A high or King high? probably not. QJ would also rather call. he would primarily do that with 57, or with a hand that got helped on the turn, like 64, 84, or 44. it´s hard though to see him hold 44, because it shows better expectation to openshove or limp jam small pairs. i also don´t see him raise as a bluff on such a board.
i don´t really see him have a flush draw here either, he really shouldn´t raise you on the turn with a bare flush draw and the flush draws that also have some other piece of the board, like a pair or a gutshot should be getting it in OTF.
if he´s playing all of his 57 holdings like that (unlikely, because it would be a bad idea), and 84 and 64 and 44, you have 45% on the turn.
if of his 57 holdings he is only checking back 5s7s, then you have 74% on the turn.
if he only checks back 84, 64, 44, you have 78% on the turn (which i assume is the most likely scenario).
if he also has overpairs to the flop in his checking back range (which is questionable), your equity looks even better.
now, if you decide to only call and a scarecard comes on the river, like a spade, he might check back und you will not get his stack from a holding like 64 or 84.
i think against all of his likely holdings, you should get it in on the turn. reading him for 44 is rather hard and the nut straight should really fast play given the many draws out there.
cheers
s.
Thanks for the detailed reply.
My thinking at the time was he checked back the flop => the board is very drawy and not great for cbetting => he probably has some sort of showdown value that doesn't want to be c/r: 8x, 6x, Ax Kx.
His turn raise totally confused me because he wouldn't be raising the turn after checking back the flop with many of these holdings (I don't think many villains would check back show down value and then turn it into a bluff one street later).
I figured he probably had something like 84 which checked back the flop and then raised the turn lead when it improved.
I figured I was ahead of most of the hands he could hold and I wanted to get my 2pair in before any more draws hit (maybe I overplayed my hand here on this board?)
Now that I know his hand, which I didn't put in his range because I thought he would be jamming it pre, his line makes more sense.
(Pretty interesting though I don't think he can have any bluffs in his raising range in this spot if he only checks backs hands with some show down value and never turns them into a bluff vs turn leads).
given the assumption that 44 is the only hand in his range you are behind of (which is also a pretty unlikely holding in itself, because he should have jammed PF), i wouldn´t say so.
75s is a likely holding to play like this
44 and 66 is not unlikely to be minraised preflop. I highly doubt that more player open-jam 44 25bb then are minraising. The question on this turn cannot be: should I fold because he could have a street or a set, but; will a weaker hand call my shove or will i get better equity with calling his raise and donk the river? This question is really hard to answer i think. Considering how drawheavyt he board is, it is not unlikely for a Flush or a Straightdraw to call and the push should be the best option.
If there is anything to learn from this hand, it is your default asumption of this range. Unless this guy is a regular, you cannot asume that he will openshove 44. Fish don't do that and most of the 6/9max Players probably prefer the minraise as well when they play some hu sng.
Hi.
you´re of course right: we can´t assume reggisch ranges from an unknown.
I would expect 66 and 75 to play fast on a boad where there is a flush draw and the board hits perceived OOP flatting range enough that there is more value in betting than checking back.
If you flop the straight on a two-suited board, you cannot be afraid of the flushdraw. Otherwise, you would had need to surrender your top two pair on this board, because a straight is possible and there are 3 sets beating you.
If your opponent here is a fish, he does not even know what a perceived range is.
If your opponent is strong, he will not pay you out unless you he hits his set.
If were are asuming that your opponent is a good regular, who is min-raising 44 in this spot, and not just a fish that got really lucky, he played this hand perfectly and this is also something you need to acknowledge.
The questions you should ask yourself are:
- Could I had extract more value from him, vs his RANGE, if i only had called the turn?
- Why did I not consider the possibility of my opponent min-raising pocket pairs? This is less in regard to the particular hand, but about your way of thinking. My default style to play versus a random/unknown is the style of how I play versus a tight passive player and believe you me, I do not open shove a single hand versus an unknown as long as effective stack size is >17bb. That simply is the basic style versus unknown I have been teached by my coach and it worked out quite well.
What I don't understand is why you are so afraid of a FD hitting this board. Considering the fact, that you could all ready be beaten by T7, 75, 99, 88 and 66 on the flop the FD would be my least concern. At least, as long as I do not have any further reads.
Often when I read your threads, I cannot escape the feeling, that you try work out a range for your opponent only once the hand is done and before you post it in the forum. I would find it a very interesting experiment if you would record yourself while playing and putting your opponent on a range while you are 'live'.
Hi.
My point about the flush draw was that I would expect to see a lot less slow played hands in villain's check back range than if the board was less drawy.
Slow playing a flopped set here would be lolbad. Typically @ 25BB there are only sets in the player in position's range as the out of position player would generally be 3b jamming their pocket pairs.
Slow playing a flopped straight here would be pretty bad too but I'm sure some people do it.
Agreed.
I'm not sure about this? We are playing heads up @ 25BB. Take an example: if villain cbets with A9 on this board and gets c/r jammed on I think a strong player would realise that their opponent's c/r jamming range can hold a lot of draws against which it would be a mistake to fold top pair. If we were playing a deeper format, it would be prudent to increase your threshold for stacking off. We're playing short stacked heads up => if your threshold for stacking off here is sets + then you're going to get torn a new one vs anyone who competently semibluffs their draws. Maybe I'm just a spewtard?
My opponent played the pretty much hand perfectly postflop. If he was a good regular, he would be open jamming 44 @ 25BB ?
Having now thought about the hand a bit more, I don't think it matters too much whether I jam here or flat. Given that I don't think we see many slow played sets or straights on that flop, his turn raise turn lead value range is mostly 2pairs I'm ahead of. Additionally, he is unlikely to turn a marginal show down value holding into a bluff on the turn after checking them back on the flop. So he really doesn't have many bluffs (or any) in his range here. I think all his value hands call a jam after reraising NAI. I think we probably get more value from getting it in now on the turn rather than waiting for the river and a scary card killing our action (eg. flush draw completes).
This has been a good lesson for me in the danger of assuming villain thinks similarly to me. Regardless in this case, given I think villain can reraise NAI and call a jam with a lot of turned 2pair holdings which I'm ahead of, I can't be too worried about 44 which is such a small part of his range.
My default play here would be to open jam 44 @ 25BB. Unless you know your opponent folds too much to min raises, open jamming it will have the best expectation. The general population I play against plays too many hands OOP that min-raising 44 would not be better than open jamming it.
If you hold any of these hands in villain's position why would you slow play them?
Your opponent is unlikely to start spazzing out without a hand on a later street and there are so many turn and river cards that devalue your relative hand strength and / or kill your action.
I'm sure there are some tricky fish who like to check back flopped straights here. From what I've seen villain's tend to overprotect vs draws with made hands rather than underrep their hands.
Obviously my thought process can be better articulated post game when I'm not making decisions on the fly.
The reason I post hands is to get perspectives / insights from other players which helps me improve beyond the constraints of my current framework for thinking about decisions.
Thanks for taking the time to reply :)