This is a very small sample.
The variance you experience will depend on your win rate.
Suggest having a play with the variance calculator to get a feel for what you should expect for given win rates, sample sizes. http://www.husng.com/content/variance-calculator
Yes its possible (Ive play turbo in the past and you can expect variance for sure) like Cdon said play with the calculator and you will see maybe you put a wrong value on something it work well for me. You cannot conclude atm if its bad play obv sample size to small, just have to keep on playing your best game and time will answer you.
Okey so this is it.
This year have been terrible and i hope its variance and not my gamestyle since then $15 have gotten alot harder this year...
Last couple of months:
This year so far playing like i did last couple of month, maybe improved a little.
It feels like every time i push the call or raise button im already beaten...
Can variance be so hard on me?
This is a very small sample.
The variance you experience will depend on your win rate.
Suggest having a play with the variance calculator to get a feel for what you should expect for given win rates, sample sizes.
http://www.husng.com/content/variance-calculator
Additionally you should have a read of this article:
http://www.husng.com/content/given-my-results-what-should-my-confidence-level-be-about-my-true-winrate-0
to get a feel for confidence intervals you can interpret your results relative to your expected win rate.
I've tried the variance calculator, but I get a steep line everytime... Any idea why this happens?
But is like a 30-40 BI downswing possible in the turbos? Or would that just indicate bad play?
Yes its possible (Ive play turbo in the past and you can expect variance for sure) like Cdon said play with the calculator and you will see maybe you put a wrong value on something it work well for me. You cannot conclude atm if its bad play obv sample size to small, just have to keep on playing your best game and time will answer you.
Dont Let Variance Affect You!
You might be putting in win rate as a whole number instead of a decimal?
Or might be putting in the wrong numbers for win amount or lose amount?
For example 52% win rate @ $15 (14.69+0.31) hyper turbos over 200 games:
win rate = 0.52
win amount = 14.69 * 2 - 15 = 14.38
lose amount = 15
games = 200
Thanks! I did put in the win % as a whole decimal indeed.
Looks like variance can be a LOT bigger in the turbos than I expected, good to know
thanks!
Okey so this is it.
This year have been terrible and i hope its variance and not my gamestyle since then $15 have gotten alot harder this year...
Last couple of months:
This year so far playing like i did last couple of month, maybe improved a little.
It feels like every time i push the call or raise button im already beaten...
Can variance be so hard on me?