Hi anyone, i apologize in advance for my english.
I'm playing hyper turbos 50 and 100s on stars.fr rake is huge.
47+3 at 50s and 94.5+5.55 at 100s.
these are my stats
SNG 4.872 -€0,84 €47,45 -1,5% -€4.083 71 52,4% itm
I calculate that with this %of rake to breakeven u should have 53% itm
Is this right?
Thanks
Claudio
Hey man, I went through the calcs in a couple of threads:
http://www.husng.com/content/rake-beatable-beginner
@ 50, r = 3 / 50 = 6%
=> break even win rate, w = (0+1) / (2 - 2 * 0.06) = 53.2%
@ 100, r = 5.55 / 100 = 5.5%
=> break even win rate, w = (0+1) / (2 - 2 * 0.055) = 52.9%
I don't think these are worth playing tbh.
Even with very high rakeback?
I planned to achieve supernova elite on.fr in 4 month and then after a short holiday move on stars.com, playing for pure profit.
Is this a bad idea? I calculate that if i will be breakeven at tables i will gain 120k in milestones and bonus, its a challenge with myself
Last question is 52.4% a good winrate? I play hyper only from 2 months and regwarred a bit at 100s.
Many thanks
RE: Good win rates
Winning players can make about 2-3% ROI in games where the rake is about 2%.
So back solving for their win rate (methodology included in links above).
For 2% ROI @ r =2% => w = 52.0%
For 3% ROI @ r =2% => w = 52.6%
=> Therefore 52.4% win rate would be quite good.
Note, however games with 6% rake would attract more fish.
So if you played in games with a more reg infested player pool, you might not be able to achieve the same win rate.
RE: Rakeback
You can apply the same method, but adjust for rakeback.
If we let the % rakeback we get be 'b' then the effective rake you pay is e(r) = r * (1 - b)
And you can just sub e(r) in for the 'r' term in the equations provided to calculate your post rake back adjusted ROI e(ROI).
Not sure what rakeback you get?
So I ran a sensitivity analysis for various win rates (w) and rake back (b) % to calculate your e(ROI).
You will notice that you need massive (>70%) back to justify playing these games @ your current win rate.
@ r = 6%
e(ROI)
b
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
w
60%
13.5%
14.2%
15.0%
15.7%
16.4%
17.1%
17.8%
18.6%
19.3%
20.0%
59%
11.6%
12.3%
13.0%
13.8%
14.5%
15.2%
15.9%
16.6%
17.3%
18.0%
58%
9.7%
10.4%
11.1%
11.8%
12.5%
13.2%
13.9%
14.6%
15.3%
16.0%
57%
7.8%
8.5%
9.2%
9.9%
10.6%
11.3%
11.9%
12.6%
13.3%
14.0%
56%
6.0%
6.6%
7.3%
8.0%
8.6%
9.3%
10.0%
10.7%
11.3%
12.0%
55%
4.1%
4.7%
5.4%
6.0%
6.7%
7.4%
8.0%
8.7%
9.3%
10.0%
54%
2.2%
2.8%
3.5%
4.1%
4.8%
5.4%
6.1%
6.7%
7.4%
8.0%
53%
0.3%
0.9%
1.5%
2.2%
2.8%
3.5%
4.1%
4.7%
5.4%
6.0%
52%
-1.6%
-1.0%
-0.4%
0.3%
0.9%
1.5%
2.1%
2.8%
3.4%
4.0%
51%
-3.5%
-2.9%
-2.3%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-0.4%
0.2%
0.8%
1.4%
2.0%
50%
-5.4%
-4.8%
-4.2%
-3.6%
-3.0%
-2.4%
-1.8%
-1.2%
-0.6%
0.0%
49%
-7.3%
-6.7%
-6.1%
-5.5%
-4.9%
-4.4%
-3.8%
-3.2%
-2.6%
-2.0%
48%
-9.2%
-8.6%
-8.0%
-7.5%
-6.9%
-6.3%
-5.7%
-5.2%
-4.6%
-4.0%
The cases where e(ROI) > 2% are marked :) below:
e(ROI)
b
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
w
60%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
59%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
58%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
57%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
56%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
55%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
54%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
53%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
52%
:)
:)
:)
:)
51%
50%
49%
48%
@ r = 5.5%
e(ROI)
b
-5.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
w
60%
14.1%
14.7%
15.4%
16.0%
16.7%
17.4%
18.0%
18.7%
19.3%
20.0%
59%
12.2%
12.8%
13.5%
14.1%
14.8%
15.4%
16.1%
16.7%
17.4%
18.0%
58%
10.3%
10.9%
11.5%
12.2%
12.8%
13.4%
14.1%
14.7%
15.4%
16.0%
57%
8.4%
9.0%
9.6%
10.2%
10.9%
11.5%
12.1%
12.7%
13.4%
14.0%
56%
6.5%
7.1%
7.7%
8.3%
8.9%
9.5%
10.2%
10.8%
11.4%
12.0%
55%
4.6%
5.2%
5.8%
6.4%
7.0%
7.6%
8.2%
8.8%
9.4%
10.0%
54%
2.7%
3.2%
3.8%
4.4%
5.0%
5.6%
6.2%
6.8%
7.4%
8.0%
53%
0.8%
1.3%
1.9%
2.5%
3.1%
3.7%
4.3%
4.8%
5.4%
6.0%
52%
-1.1%
-0.6%
0.0%
0.6%
1.1%
1.7%
2.3%
2.9%
3.4%
4.0%
51%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-1.4%
-0.8%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.9%
1.4%
2.0%
50%
-5.0%
-4.4%
-3.9%
-3.3%
-2.8%
-2.2%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-0.6%
0.0%
49%
-6.9%
-6.3%
-5.8%
-5.2%
-4.7%
-4.2%
-3.6%
-3.1%
-2.5%
-2.0%
48%
-8.8%
-8.2%
-7.7%
-7.2%
-6.6%
-6.1%
-5.6%
-5.1%
-4.5%
-4.0%
Again,the cases where e(ROI) > 2% are marked :) below:
e(ROI)
b
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
w
60%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
59%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
58%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
57%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
56%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
55%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
54%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
53%
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
:)
52%
:)
:)
:)
:)
51%
50%
49%
48%
Wow! Thanks for the answer.
Played few games, no action, Looking for an easy .com site
U look pretty much like a stablished reg on 50s/100s on .fr, btw, if u're supernova en on .fr, i think u get at least 70% rb playing hypers, this is counting stellar rwds+milestones+fpps x cash+ hypermania (an extra bonus on .fr for hypers), this is provided you make >200k vpps on the year but less than 300k vpps, if u make more than 300k vpps but less than 400k vpps, i think rb goes up to 72% and so on.
Do u have any particular nightmares (talking about regs that sit u)??
VHL