Hi,
My question involves playing against someone who is shortstacked, around 10bb in reg speed HUSNG. If they min raise the button, and I have a hand such as T7os, I don't really want to 3-bet get it in and give him a chance to double up. I don't think his min-raise is a signal of strength particularly, but he's still probably calling a shove pretty wide. As I'm getting 3-1 here, is it +EV to just flat the raise, catch a piece and then get it in?
The answer to your question is yes, but you have to take some other things into consideration
1) how often is he opening? ( If he is opening a lot ( over 60%) this is an easy flat, but lets say they are only opening 20% in the SB. Well folding might be an even better choice since his range is going to be more value orientated, which makes a hand like 107 playable, but not ideal.
2) This also is important when 3bet shoving somebody. No point in trying to 3bet shove a person as a bluff when they aren't opening a wider range.
Overall, the 107 is going to be fine to flat, but you always need to take villains tendencies into consideration
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Thanks for the advice
Looking back, he had around 65% vpip from the SB, but had been much tighter once down to 10bb - is there anyway of tracking opponent's stats separated by stack depth?
You could modify the approach I outlined in the link below and model a 2 street flat pre and stack off flop game to crudley estimate the expectation of flatting short stacked.
http://www.husng.com/content/flatting-nai-3b-marginal-holdings-high-implied-value
Assume villain's opening range [R]
@ 10BB you will see a single raised pot with 4BB in the middle and (10-2) = 8BB behind.
Calculate how often you flop (S-2) / 2S equity => in 10BB case 8 / 20 = 40%
Put some sensitivities around how often villain cbet folds vs cbet calls as well as other options such as donking to estimate value of fold equity.
Calculate the EV of the play across 2 streets and you have a rough model for estimating flatting expectation ...
Then compare to the EV of 3b jamming and folding and you will have some reference points for deciding where you want to allocate your ranges.
PT4 and the CoffeeHud is the best software.
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Thanks guys