Hi guys,
First of all few things about me. I'm a 21 years old student of International Business, Economy. I'm loosing money on poker since July 2012. All the time on micro games, so it's not so much. I want to become a pro poker player in heads up hyper. I've already played some games, but it was b/e. So... Yesterday i started real challange. With 170$ bank roll i started grinding 1$ hypers and i hope i will see my edge and jump to 2.5$ tournaments. I've already watch some free videos and i will buy full pack videos if i earn some money. I need 500$ per month to be satisfacted. Not so much? Well... We will see.
So, maybe later i will write something more, but now: what can you expect on this blog?
-sick spots that i'm analysing
-my tilts
-happiness and sadness
-some stupid mindfuking crap
-more sick spots
-and probably some videos.
I hope that my english is not so bad and you can enjoy reading.
I will start with my yesterday graph, because everyone love graphs.
So... for now it's all. Probably i will write something more today :)
gl for everyone!
So this is my first hand i want to talk about: (i hope that format is ok)
10/20 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players$1 Heads-Up Sit & Go
Hand converted by the official HUSNG.com hand converter
BBsexysmith579470
SBHero530
Effective Stacks: 24bb
Blinds 10/20 Pre-Flop (30, 2 players)
Hero is SB
Hero raises to 40, sexysmith579 calls 20
Flop (80, 2 players)
sexysmith579 checks, Hero bets 40, sexysmith579 raises to 100, Hero calls 60
Turn (280, 2 players)
sexysmith579 goes all-in 330, Hero folds
Final Pot: 280
sexysmith579 wins 610 ( won +140 )
Hero lost -140
I opened 2x std, get called, and hit 2nd pair top kicker. Standard cbet half pot and i've got rised. First i was thinking about 3bet shove. In villain range there are a lot of draws, worst 2nd pair, 2nd pair+draw, maybe sometimes 57. There are also some Ax like A2-A5. So i decide to keep his range wide and call his rise. On the turn he jam it to me, and i need about 54%. I gave him this range: A5s-A2s,K7s,Q7s,J7s,T7s,97s,85s+,75s+,65s,A5o-A2o,K7o,Q7o,J7o,T7o,97o,85o+,74o+,64o+ (it's my first time so i hope you will check it and help me if it's wrong). Vs this range i've got about 46,76% and i've decided to fold it. I was thinking about made hands in his range like 89. For sure thinking players will not play straight this way, because of too much fold equity, but since i start playing 1$ hypers, i observe that many fishes love to shove nutts on the turn.
P.S. i had no reads for this guy.
For now it's all, i've already played about 100 games today, so i will put the graph before midnight. Hope you'll enjoy!
it´s mathematically impossible to need more than 50%.
you need to invest 330 chips to get 280+330= 610 chips. you are getting 1.85:1 on your call, which means you have to be win every 2.85th time to at least break even. that in percentages is 35%. another way of directly calculating the percentages is to take the chips you have to call und divide that by the total amount in the pot after you call (940). 330/940 = 0.35.
you should really know how to calculate pot odds before you continue playing for money.
cheers
s.
Too much grinding i think :O
For sure you are right, and thanks for your vigilance. I'm not so bad that i can't count pot odds, but i just did it wrong and didn't thougt about it, that it can't be more than 50%. When i was calculating odds i've made a huge mistake- i've counted 330/280+330 instead of 330/330+330+280. Probably that's the reason why i'm still on 1$ tournaments, but i'm learning all the time :).
So about this hand little correction: we need 35%, vs range i gave to villain we have 48% so it should be an easy call. Do you think range i gave to villain is correct? do you call here?
And probably i'm leaving now, so today i'll finished on 100tournaments. Here is graph :)
Fortunately we have a great free article in the Mersenneary ebook - http://www.husng.com/content/calculating-pot-odds-and-how-often-your-opp...
It depends on villain's:
- OOP flatting range
- c/r range on this board
- turn jamming range after his c/r was flatted range on this turn card
^^ all within in the context of how villain perceives your relevant ranges & gameflow at the point that the hand was played (if he's thinking about those factors)
OOP flatting ranges will vary quite widely at this stake.
Some are overly passive with the top of their range, significantly increasing its strength (in particular the amount of Ax in his range on this board) while others are overly aggressive and will contain a ton of very weak hands. The amount of weak hands villain has + his propensity to run big bluffs like a true micro baller will affect the amount of hands he can potentially turn into bluffs by putting them in his c/r range.
For the purpose of modeling, I will assume villain has an OOP flatting range of something like:
[Ax7x-Ax2x,Ax7y-Ax2y,KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx2y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxJy-Qx4y,JxTx-Jx2x,JxTy-Jx4y,Tx9x-Tx2x,Tx9y-Tx7y,9x8x-9x5x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x5x,7x6y,7x5y,6x5x,6x4x,6x5y,5x4x] ~ 55% frequency
This range on this board has raw frequencies of:
61.3505% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
3.5225% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 1-4
3.5144% NOTHING | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 5-8
10.0501% THIRDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
9.4818% SECONDPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
8.4176% TOPPAIR | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
1.0343% BOTTOMTWO | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
1.5731% TOPANDBOTTOM | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
1.0557% TOPTWO | NO FLUSH DRAW | STRAIGHT OUTS: 0
We can estimate his value / bluff ratio by making some assumptions about the types of hands he puts in his c/r range.
Value = [top pair +] ~ 12.1%
Bluffs = [OESD ~ 3.5%] + sometimes [gutshots ~3.5%] + sometimes [complete air ~ spew factor]
Note that players tend to play fairly straight forwardly OOP in single raised pots on Axx boards. So we don't expect a lot total bluffs (mind you some people will ratchet the spew factor up a lot to account for the the generally increased frequency of spew at these very low stakes.
For the sake of modeling a typical opponent here, I will assume villain puts his OESD in his c/r range and run another simulation for the case where he also adds in his gutshots. To determine the extent to which the spew factor affects your decision, you really need to know more about your specific opponent imo.
Kd7c equity breakdown can be calculated vs the various parts of his range (details of PQL methodology included in notes at end):
Case 1: Vs his [top pair +, OESD] c/r range
=> flop ~ 24%
=> turn ~ 20%
Case 2: Vs his [top pair +, OESD, gutshots] c/r range
=> flop ~ 31%
=> turn ~ 19%
So if villain ships his entire flop c/r range on the turn we can't call in either case.
We need 35% equity to call and have about 20%.
Note it is quite interesting that we end up with even less equity on the turn vs the case 2 wider c/r range because the turn completes more of villain's bluff hands which he didn't include in his c/r range in case 1.
So given the above assumptions I made, I believe that we can not call a turn jam.
There are, of course, some "it depends" caveats around this conclusion:
- a lot of the value in villain's assumed c/r range is comprised of top pair holdings => if he 3b jams more Ax preflop, then he will have less top pairs and therefore less value in his c/r range which will increase our equity vs it
- as the amount of random spew in villain's c/r range increases, our equity vs his c/r range increases
- if villain slow plays some of his strong flopped hands then this will decrease the amount of value hands in his c/r range, increasing our equity vs it
- if villain doesn't jam the turn with his entire flop c/r range then it will affect our turn decision greatly => for example if he takes a different line with his value hands then our equity vs his turn jamming range will be higher than that calculated above
PQL queries (please challenge if you are a technically competent and disagree with methodology - I don't have much experience with PQL syntax or logic)
PQL - poker query language within propokertools for calculation of equities:
http://www.propokertools.com/pql
vs [top pair +, OESD, gutshots] on flop
select avg(equity(hero, flop)) as vs_cr_range
from game="holdem",
hero="Kd7c",
villain="Ax7x-Ax2x,Ax7y-Ax2y,KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx2y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxJy-Qx4y,JxTx-Jx2x,JxTy-Jx4y,Tx9x-Tx2x,Tx9y-Tx7y,9x8x-9x5x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x5x,7x6y,7x5y,6x5x,6x4x,6x5y,5x4x",
board="Ah7d5c6c"
where
minflophandcategory(villain, floptoppair)
or
outstohandtype(villain, flop, straight)= 8
or
outstohandtype(villain, flop, straight)= 4
vs [top pair +, OESD] on turn
select avg(equity(hero, turn)) as vs_cr_range
from game="holdem",
hero="Kd7c",
villain="Ax7x-Ax2x,Ax7y-Ax2y,KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx2y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxJy-Qx4y,JxTx-Jx2x,JxTy-Jx4y,Tx9x-Tx2x,Tx9y-Tx7y,9x8x-9x5x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x5x,7x6y,7x5y,6x5x,6x4x,6x5y,5x4x",
board="Ah7d5c6c"
where
minflophandcategory(villain, floptoppair)
or
outstohandtype(villain, flop, straight)= 8
vs [top pair +, OESD, gutshots] on turn
select avg(equity(hero, turn)) as vs_cr_range
from game="holdem",
hero="Kd7c",
villain="Ax7x-Ax2x,Ax7y-Ax2y,KxQx-Kx2x,KxQy-Kx2y,QxJx-Qx2x,QxJy-Qx4y,JxTx-Jx2x,JxTy-Jx4y,Tx9x-Tx2x,Tx9y-Tx7y,9x8x-9x5x,9x8y,9x7y,8x7x-8x5x,8x7y,8x6y,7x6x,7x5x,7x6y,7x5y,6x5x,6x4x,6x5y,5x4x",
board="Ah7d5c6c"
where
minflophandcategory(villain, floptoppair)
or
outstohandtype(villain, flop, straight)= 8
or
outstohandtype(villain, flop, straight)= 4
I am calling with K7
Why?
RyPac thx for it :)
cdon very big and nice analysis, For sure it depends on villain's, but i played with him maybe 3 hands, and that was all, so it's totally review vs unk.
Probably if after ~200 hands i didn't saw Ax in his flatting range i'll call in this spot. But without notes i agree with you and prefer fold here.
Thank you for such a big part of informations. I've never used PQL, so i'm not sure how to use it.
This week i was very busy and i couldn't play (maybe 10 games per day). Today i've made 100 tournaments and it was a very good run. I've played much more aggressive and it worked much better. Here's a graph and radio i love to listen while playing http://www.di.fm/dubstep
and here is full graph from the beginning
gl everyone!
Sup guys,
last few days were very, very great for me, i advanced to 2$ games because my roll hit 200$. I was feeling very great, because my ev for the first time was rising with one swing. I didn't found hard spots, that i could show you and talk about them with you. So here is the graph:
So i was pretty happy and than the black day came. I'm not sure what happened. Maybe i was tired, tilted or something, but i've never saw so many coolers, like QQ-AA, AQ+ preflop, and every time postflop i saw nutts and feel really awful. I had to go down back to 1$ because of 150$ in roll. I've got new movies, already watch most of them, but my mindset has been destroyed. I'm not sure how long should i play poker without earnings. I'm spending a lot of time with it and i'm doing it for 3$ rake per week, so probably i'll need to find some other way to earn money. For sure i will be grinding until June, before my bachelor's degree graduating.
Before that i'm still fighting, today i'll try to make a short video ~15min session review. So guys, here is my newest wall of cry:
For now that's all, wish me luck guys, i'll need it.
GL 4 all of you!
20 buyin downswing at HT.
Pretty standard.
I've heard that in HT there are 100bi's swings possible, but when my EV go down 20bi, are we still talking about swing? or i just play weak poker?
The sample is too small to have any confidence about what it means.
The equity adjusted graph just adjusts for all in equity,
It is quite possible that over small samples a winning player can have large swings in both the lines simply due to card distribution.
That said, I wouldn't assume that's what's happening.
Everyone has leaks in their game.
Your focus should be on playing your ranges vs villains' ranges & tendencies for the most EV possible rather than what your graph looks like.
you have pokertracker. so turn on the replayer and honestly judge your playing in every hand. that´s the only way to find out if you played bad or got unlucky or a combination of both.
it´s tedious, but there´s no way around if you want to improve.
cheers
s.
That's true, i think i need about 10k games sample to say anything about my game.
And maybe it's only all-in equity, but in long run hypers i think it shows how good we are. When i saw regulars graphs ev was very adequate to ev graph.
I'm pretty sure, that everyone has exploitable leaks, but i'm a micro player, so i'm expecting me to crush these games.
And i have to admit that i'm addicted to my graph. I'm refreshing my graph every 5 minutes to see how i was playing (and probably it's one of my biggest leaks).
For sure I should be spending more time in poker tracker making a session review, but in hypers i need a hudge volume, so i'm trying to do my best, forgetting about the skill. Probably when i'll be playing for 5$ I'll have more motivation to increase my skills, now i just want to make volume and advance to 5$.
Today i was playing 1$-s, and after 100 games i was b/e. I couldn't stop myself and play few 2.25$-s and it was quite good.
I'm sorry, but i wasn't able to make a video today, but i hope i'll make it asap. It will be session review in poker tracker, because i want to talk a lot about every single spot.
So... thanks for reading my blog, i hope you enjoy it and here is my graph for today. GL guys :)
"And i have to admit that i'm addicted to my graph. I'm refreshing my graph every 5 minutes to see how i was playing (and probably it's one of my biggest leaks)."
Definitely try and focus your motivation and energies into obsessing over every poker decision, rather than every result. If you can do that, it'll do wonders to your game (and enjoyment of the game).
I agree with you and when I'm refreshing my graph i'm not angry because it's going down, when i'm sure that decision was right (like 3bet jam A8 and get called by AK). But all the time i'm not sure am i winning or losing player and that's why i want to refresh it again ang again.
looking at the graph of one match is not going to tell you if you are a losing or winning player. besides: you really should be able to tell if you made good or bad decisions in the match.
your EV-line can go all the way down, ALTHOUGH you made all the right choices.
consider 2 players who play each other and every decision they make is GTO. what will the ev-line tell you? the ev-line will show you which player got dealt better cards. that´s all.
of course your goal should be an ev-line that goes up, but checking after every match is not going to help and it´s probably even giving you a false impression, if it´s the only thing you are relying on, as it seems you do.
You shouldn't doubt yourself so much.
My brother's girlfriend's sister used to go out with Daniel Colman and he revealed to her in a moment of weakness one time that the reason he has been so successful at poker is because he never stopped refreshing his graph.
There were people that said "just focus on your decisions and you will get better" and other such advice but he knew to ignore them.
The key to success in poker is to visualise your graph rising then refresh after every game.
Since you won't need to focus on decisions at all you can even practice refreshing during your matches.
I can relate to that buddy :). I have to stop asap with this annoying thing which only causes less concentration and energy during the session!
Well i think i just need a proof that i'm a winning player and i'll forget about refreshing. (or maybe i'll do it all the time and smile to it :D) For sure you will be able to read about it here. For now i want to ferget about refreshing and talk a little about my sick spots. For sure i want to make a short video, but for now i'm not at home, so i'll make it after Easter. For now here is my today spot, which i think is very very sick. I hate these kind of spots, because i'm way ahead way behind (and if i'm behind my ev graph falls so much, and you guys now how i'm addicted to it :D). Well... about the villain: [65 hands, AFq F 80(12/15) T 57(4/7) R 100(2/2); CB F 100(5/5) T50(1/2) RvCB 100(3/3) DONK F 17(1/6) T - R 100(1/1); PREFLOP 25BB deep: FLAT 100 (3/3) 3BET 0. i think that's enough. So as you see he was a very, very agressive player. Every time he was betting he used a huge size (as i remember he was all the time betting pot size bet). So... why did i call? For sure he's not playing 5x this way, i think he will fold it on the turn. Jx, 9x his c/c on the river (9x he could be c/f on the river, and Jx he'll probably rise on the flop). Flush draws he will rise on the flop, so i don't belive he has a flush. he can have missed draws (KT,QT,T8,Q8,78,KQ[if he didn't rise it on the flop, and maybe few missed flash draws like Ks5,Qs5 etc.]) and maybe some Ax, but i still don't belive that he won't rise his Ax on the turn and if he don't he will donk it on the river for about ~120-180)
10/20 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • FullTiltPoker
$2.25 Heads-Up Sit & Go
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight.com
SB
hero
480
BB
1254387
520
Effective Stacks: 24bb
Blinds 10/20
hero raises to 40, 1254387 calls 20
1254387 checks, hero bets 40, 1254387 calls 40
1254387 checks, hero bets 70, 1254387 calls 70
1254387 goes all-in 370, hero goes all-in 330
Well i'm not so good in those analysis, but i hope you see my point, that he won't play Ax this way and Jx,9x. He might have few flushes, but i think he will rise them on the flop. And straight draws (i think there are a lot missed straights in his range, but i don't know why he didn't rise it on the flop).
Do you call here guys? or you wait for a better opportunity?