Hi all !
Sorry for being pessimistic, but did anyone shuffle HUs at his own with real deck, as it easy as ever to " re- modell " the game....and make stats regarding starting hands: pockets, premium hands etc,...1 player hits ,both plyrs hit, no hits, bad beats, "magic flop " etc etc ....actions in general per 10,20 or 50 dealt hands.
Unfortunately i did planty of these and i could NEVER reproduce the outcome of any given HU game of my own.... the differents for me was too much to believe its real online as well.....
I could not find much online about HUs stats regarding my point of view, but what i found, for example " rearly hitting flops" ,"top pair is good ", "above 2 pairs are gold" etc.....LOL, i could not slow play sets, flushes, str8s...
Please, believe me i dont want to be a soar looser who blames RNG for his bad play , just it seems unrealistic to me the outcome of online Heads Up hands in general.I play micro turbos,but i dont think it should matter.
Am i wrong....?
After 100 and some views i'd like to thank all of you for helping me clearing my mind...LOL the facts are facts...silence means agreement.....lets all grind 1000+ games per month or week...give X % rake to the sites ( they provide the cake LOL ) than earn more or less the same (if we play our " A " game ) as theee sites...LOL.....
Also read somewhere " we need fish and bad beats to get the fish play again, and again..." So thats how it goes online...make out the max profit possible, to have the " business" going....LOL it is poker......ONLINE :((
PS: i played over 1000 HUs with different names on 2 sites( 55 % winrate ), i had the "shark symbol " twice on sharkscope in MTTs...lol after signing up on 888 and having an " stay on 888 " new player's luck...Just to explain im not a new player. THANKS! GOOD " LUCK " AT THE TABLES !!!
Hi there
I previously doubted the RNG at Pokerstars. I was running 150 BI below EV after 3000 tournaments, which was rougly 1 in 200 chance, or once per 600,000 games. However, things have become more normal since then, and my paranoia has receded.
I would have to say: all of the major poker sites have a fair RNG. I know it can feel unfair, but quite simply put, there is a lot of variance in HUSNG. The sites have no motivation to rig the RNG, since they only collect rake, and have no interest in one player or another coming out on top. Take it from the rest of us - online poker is fair.
There is no spoon.
Think about it; most pokersites are also offering casino games. There have been countless studies showing, that you get 'hooked' in the beginning; meaning that you get a lucky strike in the beginning when you sign up. In 2006 rumors came up, that pokersites would use the RNG in their favour as well. Opposite was proved soon. There simply is no reason to hook players in. There is the rake; in the long run the pokersite always wins.
That said, the truth is that the RNG is not rigged by the pokersite. The truth remains, that the RNG can be used by your opponents. This may be misleading. However, in 2009 austrian students found out that the RNG is not really random, or better yet; it has it loops. Once they prooved their was a loop, american hackers took up onto the issue and found methods to measure the code. Security actually is the problem. For stars, the decks keeps gets shuffeled further and further, even on the flop, until you make your decision. If you knew the algorithm you could define anything. Of course a human being cannot define it. They might a project out of it and sold the 'g. p. omnipotence' to a group of exclusive customers. Rumor has it that about 25'000 copies have been sold eventually and of course, others took onto it.
So, while, you cannot define everything exactly, you can pick out tables that work in your favour. Did you never noticed that you start out in the BB lots of the time, while your opponents gets the BTN first?
Howsoever; the software uses stealth and since those players are not winning against the 'house' (the 'house' always wins - due to the rake they generate), the pokersites do not give a crap.
Why did I not post this earlier? Well; if someone starts a sentence with "the truth is..." ... did you ever hear words that made you glade? Because I sure did not.
Hi.
Thank you all for your time and comment !!
The biggest reason why sites are honest is always coz " they getting rake anyway..." LOL! Yes it's true...but how much rake they getting, if my paranoia would not be only paranoia...? As soon as they helping fish to play longer with they money and getting fun fun fun, being " lucky " ( they not helping any specific player ,only generally the fish get help by winning the worst hand more time as it should be... ) and therefore good players FORCE to play HIGH volume of games to get X% ROI; also giving MORE RAKE...,than in my opinion the site did what needed to do for MAXIMIZE the PROFIT which is truly only the RAKE...Also therefore they can maximize the number of players, instead of loosing the bad ones and letting good ones to achieve same ROI with "normal" volume games played. ( i can not believe sry, that mr Negreanu and other pros are playing 100s of MTTs per week to get 15 % ROI overall...LOL )
And variance is the main reason why poker is so cruel...TRUE TOO... BUT,:) in my opinion( maybe i'm wrong ) in HU when only 2 plyrs involved, variance should be less than in a 6 or 9 or 10 plys game....i did shuffle and played live, both type of game, HUs and Full table...and i think the different is visible in live only... but online there is no different...CRAZY STUFF all day long LOL
But i have to accept that this " theory of rigged / or not rigged rng " goes all along between believers and non-believers ages ago and for me it's like "the egg or the chicken was first " kind a stuff....You never can be 100% sure..lol
I wish honestly that i could see the things like you guys, coz i think this is the biggest reason for most of my tilted play... lol
And the and of the day, it does NOT matter, ( as nothing will be change ).. i should either stop playing or don't care about it... " take it or leave it " basically LOL
ALL THE BEST TO EVERYONE !! Cheers ;)
i understand your frustration, we all do. we all have phases of play where we always run into AK when we 3bet shove KT. it happens. i´d suggest you get a good book on statistics for beginners, learn how to calculate standard deviations (which is pretty simple) and see what is possible just through randomness.
randomness is a bitch. that´s why medical studies got so have really high standards. that´s why drug approval needs to go through a rigorous testing process. it affects all of life, not just playing cards
Dear Dipl.Komp.
You wrote to me that calculating standard deviation is " ...simple.."...
Could you please than explain to me simply how to calculate..?
For example at 70% and 60 %...?
Thanks, regards
a simple example concerning PF all-ins:
say, you are all-in preflop 10 times as a 70% favourite. what can you expect the result to be? on average you expect to win 7 out of 10. but since we are dealing with random events, there is some variance in there. variance depends on a) the probability of an event happening (p); b) the probability of that event not happening (1-p); and c) the number of "samples" (N).
the formula to calculate variance is:
Var = N * p * (1-p)
so in our case, where we look at 10 all-ins as a 70% favourite, it looks like that:
Var = 10 * 0,7 * (1-0,7)
Var = 10 * 0,7 * 0,3
Var = 2,1
now the standard deviation σ (sigma) is the square root of the variance
σ = √Var
σ = √2,1
σ = 1,45
now that is ONE standard deviation. take a look at that diagramm:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standardabweichung#mediaviewer/Datei:Standa...
it´s a typical bell curve that shows how random events are distributed around the expected outcome μ (which stands for "mean"). you can see that the mean value μ ± 3σ pretty much covers almost everything that is randomly possible (99,73% to be precise).
so in our case: how many all-ins can we expect to win?
our μ = 7 ; (which is N * p)
and 3 * σ = 4,35
so:
μ - 3σ = 7 - 4,35 = 2,65
and
μ + 3σ = 7 + 4,35 = 11,35
so, with 99,73% accuracy, we can expect to win between 2,65 and 11,35 times out of 10 when we are a 70% favourite.
that tells us two things:
a) if you lose 7 out of 10 times as a 70% favourite, don´t freak out, it´s normal
b) our sample is way to small to say something reasonable, because it obviously is impossible to win 11,35 times out of 10.
cheers
s.
Thank you Sir!
I really do appreciate your explanation, it helped a lot !!
All the best! Regards,
another way of taking a look at bad luck vs good luck can be this:
say you play a sample of 12.000 games of hypers in a year. you have a moderate edge over the population and expect to win 52% of all games. what will your results be?
Var = 12.000 * 0.52 * 0.48
Var = 2995,2
so σ is √2995,2 = 54,73
our μ in this case is 12.000 * 0.52 = 6240
3σ = 164,19
so we can expect to win between 6076 and 6404 games.
if you play 15$ level that will equate to:
12.000 * (-15$) + 6076 * (29,38$) = -1487,12 $ in winnings, which is a -0,83 % ROI
or
12.000 * (-15$) + 6404 * (29,38$) = 8149,52 $ in winnings, which is a 4,53 % ROI
your expectation being:
12.000 * (-15$) + 6240 * (29,38$) = 3331,20 $ in winnings, which is a 1,85 % ROI
so you see, these are pretty depressing examples, considering the number of games you played and the fact that you invested one year of your life. you clearly have an edge over the population, but in one case, you lose 1,5k $ (if you didn´t give up during the course of the year due to frustration or went broke) and in the other case you make enough money to get a decent used car. or, in the first case, you have to move down one or two buy-in levels and in the second case you suddenly play the 100$ level (assuming your edge at 30s and 60s is also present and you keep on running that good).
cheers
s.