i play 7$ hyper,2000 games,my ev roi 5,2%,real roi 0%,i used husng tool called binomial calculator and the probability to have this variance is 1%.i opened this topic in order to get some advice from more experienced players,i have some questions.
1) is ev roi the best quality indicator?i have a good ev roi,is the negative variance the only reason for this deviation?
2)how many games i need to see my ev stats become real?
3)what is considered as a big variance(games played in relation with buy ins)?
Finally i want to ask something offtopic,did pokerstars delete tour dollars?
Q. is ev roi the best quality indicator?
A. It's better than your actual results because it adjusts for your all in equity but it is still biased by card distribution over the short term.
Q. i have a good ev roi,is the negative variance the only reason for this deviation?
A. 2k games is not a very large sample. But with +5% equity adj ROI over 2k games I would say you got unlucky. It's a cruel game.
Q. how many games i need to see my ev stats become real?
A. Are you expecting there to be a convergence threshold at some point? Your results will have an underlying probability distribution across which the standard deviation is a lot wider than most people expect. Suggest learning some basic stats - see probability distribution, central limit theorm & confidence intervals. There is also some useful info here for conceptualising the randomness in the game:
http://www.husng.com/content/standard-downswing
Q. what is considered as a big variance(games played in relation with buy ins)?
A. Function of win rate. This tool will help you model some of the questions you're asking:
http://www.husng.com/content/downloadable-tool-husng-profits-normal-distribution-calculator
Q. Finally i want to ask something offtopic,did pokerstars delete tour dollars?
A. Not sure. Last time (6 months ago ish) I used FPPs to play tourneys, they paid me my winnings in tourney dollars.
1. yes, yes
2. i would guess at least 10 000
3. i am running more than 300 buyins under ev in last 10k games with 4% ev roi.... :) good times
There is nothing worse than being average!!!