Lets say you have second pair on the river and villains bets , of course tons of variables come into play here but if a gto ever existed wouldnt it just call in that spot? call me a noob if im wrong but gto could call even wider in that spot isnt that right? i mean our call here is not -ev so no matter what we do we cant fail right? its just that we dont maximize our ev am i wrong?
Why can our call never be -EV? It is possible, that he only bets with hands that beat second pair.
Hi.
because if he only bets those value hands then he would give up a lot the pot without them which means we will make up for that loss by stealing all the pots he gave up. At least in gto thats how it works right? of course we need to have a good bluff ratio in order to steal all those pots he gave up.
Depends on how strong his range is compared to ours on the river. Say its a QK2JT runout in a 3bet pot and he only 3bets big aces, 99-TT and a couple of suited gapped rags as bluffs. We only beat his bluffs, if he bets his entire range he doesnt need to bet big inorder to make us indifferent to calling of folding ie we lose the same amount either way.
If he suspects we believe calling with 2nd pair is +ev no matter what he can over bet his entire range and grab even more moolah.
The above is an extreme and unbalanced situation just to illustrate a ooint. However if a villainf adjusts his bet size and ranges optimately then he will be properly balanced between bluffs and value and make us indifferent to calling folding.
Also if we check oop on the river we dont have the luxury of bluffing.