I'm having a bit of a crisis downswing at the moment. I've just moved up to $30 husng's after beating the 15's for a tidy profit. However after just 445 games playing reg speed and turbo's I am minus nearly 1k from my EV line and have dropped 20 buyins and a quarter of my roll. I just don't understand how I can be running so badly. I know I can expect some pretty big swings but Is this standard to be so far from EV after such a small sample?
Any words of advice would be appreciated, I don't recall ever running this bad.
i've played 2700 games in my database and have ran 35 buyins below ev over a few hundred games once and 25 BI below ev on another occassion
on both occassions it was followed by a drop in my ev line as i probably started to play even worse than i had run.
it will hurt more after attacking a higher limit.
look at the graph on coffeeyays coaching page, you will feel better
Yeah I've seen it. Shame I don't make the huge amount off rake back that he does :) I bet that takes away the sting a bit. Maybe one day. Good to know that it's not just me having this run, It's given me some of my sanity back as I think I lost it about 200 games ago! Oh well, onwards and upwards I guess (hopefully)
http://www.husng.com/content/100-buy-below-expectationneed-help
http://www.husng.com/content/standard-downswing
http://www.husng.com/content/downloadable-tool-husng-profits-normal-distribution-calculator
http://www.husng.com/content/given-my-results-what-should-my-confidence-level-be-about-my-true-winrate-0
Thanx Cdon,
After reading through all that Info I think I'm gonna drop back to 15's and try my hand at playing 2 tables. Seems like a good way to decrease the impact of variance. Single tabling the swings seem to last forever. I think I can handle it :)
Expected profit = [EV of how you play your entire range] - [EV of how your opponents play their entire range] - [Rake]
The variance in your profit distribution is a function of your win rate and the rake (see links provided for more details). For static rake, the only way to decrease your variance is to increase your edge over your opponents. This will have the synergistic benefit that the better you get, the more realistic your expectations will become about your distribution of returns because you understand the mathematical realities of the game better.
Simplistically, playing poker well requires two skills:
[1] Information gathering - working out how your opponent plays & thinks
[2] Exploitative adjustment - designing & executing strategies which exploit frequency imbalances identified in [1] above.
While theoretically, playing more tables has the benefit of increasing your volume, it will also likely decrease your edge as it erodes your ability to physically execute [1] & [2] above. The number of tables you should play to maximise your hourly rate will engineer the correct balance between edge & volume. This varies from player to player. A word of caution: almost everyone overestimates their edge & underestimates the extent to which multitabling erodes it.
Regardless, the same generic advice will serve your needs: CONCENTRATE ON IMPROVING YOUR GAME. This requires an iterative cycle that looks something like:
[A] Analysis away from the tables to create reference points which can be used for [2]
[B] Play thinking explicitly about [1] & [2] using the relevant reference points we have from [A]
[C] Review play
[D] Loop questions / problems from [C] into the next iteration of the cycle
You will notice that the actions [check results], [fret over results] & [post results on forums concerned about running bad] are intentionally omitted from this cycle :P
Hey buddy,
I had a 20 BI downswing in 42 games the other night; EV was around -2 BIs. I'm also around 40 odd buyins down in the last two months.
The answer? Volume. If your EV line is going up then for the most part you are probably doing just fine and, as CDon will tell you, your results will likely catch up in the future.
Having said that, when in the midst of a downswing it's easy to lose focus and whilst you may not experience the classic smash-your-keyboard tilt, you may well be suffering from some other form of it, most notably concentration. Many players (myself included in the past) will begin auto-piloting, playing very quickly and not thinking every decision through, most notably not bluffing/barreling because 'they always have it'.
I had a huge downswing when I started at the $30s so got coaching and went back to two-tabling $15s. All worked out well in the end. Keep the faith and remember that no matter how hard you work both in terms of grinding and working away from the tables, poker can be a cruel motherfu**er and will punish you repeatedly. Those who show greater mental strength and resilience ultimately reap the greatest rewards in this game.
Hope that helps! GL, GG, NH etc.
Cdon, you have just basically summed up the approach I take to poker, it's a good mental boost to hear I am doing things the right way, I study and review hands a lot.
Wubblepig. That must have really sucked. Hope things pick up 4 ya over the next few!
I think this thread will stand as a good reference for the next time I'm feelin the burn at the tables.
Thanx :)